Hurricane Katrina

[CronkPSU]

mayor of NO just said on Fox News that he was told by NHC that winds are down to 140??? how did they get that info without recon?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My guest on what recon will find...

They will find the system slightly better defined. With flight level winds strong enough to hold onto the 160 if not 165 mph. In a pressure around 903 or 903 millibars.

[senorpepr]

Are they going to make a fix before the 11pm advisory???

It will be close...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My guest on what recon will find...

They will find the system slightly better defined. With flight level winds strong enough to hold onto the 160 if not 165 mph. In a pressure around 903 or 903 millibars.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My guest on what recon will find...

They will find the system slightly better defined. With flight level winds strong enough to hold onto the 160 if not 165 mph. In a pressure around 903

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Flt Data Number: 09
Latest Recon Position: 76 mi S of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 02:12:00Z; 28.5°N 90.5°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -102 ft; Wind: NE (48°) @ 89 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Max Wind: 91 mph; Radar Altitude: 10043 ft
Ob #02: 02:12:30Z; 28.4°N 90.5°W; PA: 9911 ft; D-Value: -135 ft; Wind: NE (51°) @ 89 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 92 mph; Radar Altitude: 9921 ft
Ob #03: 02:13:00Z; 28.4°N 90.5°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -157 ft; Wind: NE (47°) @ 100 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 101 mph; Radar Altitude: 9875 ft
Ob #04: 02:13:30Z; 28.4°N 90.4°W; PA: 9829 ft; D-Value: -180 ft; Wind: NE (49°) @ 94 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 96 mph; Radar Altitude: 9790 ft
Ob #05: 02:14:00Z; 28.4°N 90.4°W; PA: 9774 ft; D-Value: -194 ft; Wind: NE (51°) @ 99 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 100 mph; Radar Altitude: 9721 ft
Ob #06: 02:14:30Z; 28.4°N 90.4°W; PA: 9754 ft; D-Value: -200 ft; Wind: NE (55°) @ 98 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 98 mph; Radar Altitude: 9695 ft
Ob #07: 02:15:00Z; 28.4°N 90.4°W; PA: 9751 ft; D-Value: -194 ft; Wind: NE (53°) @ 86 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 90 mph; Radar Altitude: 9695 ft
Ob #08: 02:15:30Z; 28.3°N 90.4°W; PA: 9731 ft; D-Value: -200 ft; Wind: NE (45°) @ 81 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 82 mph; Radar Altitude: 9672 ft
Ob #09: 02:16:00Z; 28.3°N 90.3°W; PA: 9672 ft; D-Value: -194 ft; Wind: NE (49°) @ 90 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 93 mph; Radar Altitude: 9616 ft
Ob #10: 02:16:30Z; 28.3°N 90.3°W; PA: 9698 ft; D-Value: -213 ft; Wind: NE (52°) @ 91 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 91 mph; Radar Altitude: 9626 ft
Ob #11: 02:17:00Z; 28.3°N 90.3°W; PA: 9698 ft; D-Value: -230 ft; Wind: NE (50°) @ 92 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 93 mph; Radar Altitude: 9610 ft
Ob #12: 02:17:30Z; 28.3°N 90.3°W; PA: 9708 ft; D-Value: -249 ft; Wind: NE (49°) @ 96 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 96 mph; Radar Altitude: 9600 ft
Ob #13: 02:18:00Z; 28.2°N 90.2°W; PA: 9770 ft; D-Value: -266 ft; Wind: NE (49°) @ 94 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 94 mph; Radar Altitude: 9646 ft
Ob #14: 02:18:30Z; 28.2°N 90.2°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -276 ft; Wind: NE (49°) @ 96 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 96 mph; Radar Altitude: 9764 ft
Ob #15: 02:19:00Z; 28.2°N 90.2°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -295 ft; Wind: NE (50°) @ 91 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 92 mph; Radar Altitude: 9751 ft
Ob #16: 02:19:30Z; 28.2°N 90.2°W; PA: 9888 ft; D-Value: -318 ft; Wind: NE (53°) @ 98 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 104 mph; Radar Altitude: 9711 ft
Ob #17: 02:20:00Z; 28.2°N 90.2°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -344 ft; Wind: NE (50°) @ 106 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 109 mph; Radar Altitude: 9705 ft
Ob #18: 02:20:30Z; 28.2°N 90.1°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -371 ft; Wind: NE (49°) @ 100 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 107 mph; Radar Altitude: 9675 ft
Ob #19: 02:21:00Z; 28.1°N 90.1°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -394 ft; Wind: NE (53°) @ 99 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 100 mph; Radar Altitude: 9649 ft
Ob #20: 02:21:30Z; 28.1°N 90.1°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -420 ft; Wind: NE (53°) @ 93 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 94 mph; Radar Altitude: 9619 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My guest on what recon will find...

They will find the system slightly better defined. With flight level winds strong enough to hold onto the 160 if not 165 mph. In a pressure around 903

[beenthru6]

Mayor of Biloxi said on an interview with Geraldo that the winds have now dropped to 140 mph. Geraldo said they have not been able to confirm that. Don't know where the mayor is getting his info. Storm doesn't look to me like it is weakening.

[senorpepr]

Are they going to make a fix before the 11pm advisory???

It will be close...

[cjrciadt]

The is contracting noticably on radar.

[steveklein]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html



the core is nothing like it was 6 hours ago. it was a perfect donut with reds and purples... now it's mainly just oranges with poorly organized reds.

look at the cloud tops over in the western gulf racing towards katrina. that's representative of some sheer which is starting to interfere with the storm.

i'm telling you, this is a weakening storm. it's not a wishcast. it's looking at the satellite.

and what about recon. they aren't finding the winds that they were finding earlier in the day.

all this, plus the fact that new orleans looks to be west of the center spells great news for new orleans. i would expect something like cat 2 effects.

at the very least, there is an ERC going on... and personally i think it's just plain old weakening. it takes perfect conditions to maintain a cat 5 and right now with the shallow water depth, slight land interaction, and most importantly the sheer, it can't support a cat 5, and not even a strong cat 4 for very long.

[cjrciadt]

The eye is contracting noticably on radar.

[isobar]

Wow! Amazing images.

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Flt Data Number: 10
Latest Recon Position: 106 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 02:22:00Z; 28.1°N 90.1°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -443 ft; Wind: NE (54°) @ 92 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 92 mph; Radar Altitude: 9593 ft
Ob #02: 02:22:30Z; 28.1°N 90.1°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -466 ft; Wind: NE (52°) @ 92 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 92 mph; Radar Altitude: 9580 ft
Ob #03: 02:23:00Z; 28.1°N 90°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -495 ft; Wind: NE (51°) @ 94 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 94 mph; Radar Altitude: 9537 ft
Ob #04: 02:23:30Z; 28°N 90°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -525 ft; Wind: NE (46°) @ 94 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 98 mph; Radar Altitude: 9521 ft
Ob #05: 02:24:00Z; 28°N 90°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -554 ft; Wind: NE (47°) @ 101 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 103 mph; Radar Altitude: 9478 ft
Ob #06: 02:24:30Z; 28°N 90°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -587 ft; Wind: NE (51°) @ 107 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 111 mph; Radar Altitude: 9459 ft
Ob #07: 02:25:00Z; 28°N 89.9°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -636 ft; Wind: ENE (57°) @ 100 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 107 mph; Radar Altitude: 9406 ft
Ob #08: 02:25:30Z; 28°N 89.9°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -679 ft; Wind: NE (54°) @ 96 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 98 mph; Radar Altitude: 9360 ft
Ob #09: 02:26:00Z; 28°N 89.9°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -712 ft; Wind: NE (48°) @ 93 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 93 mph; Radar Altitude: 9331 ft
Ob #10: 02:26:30Z; 27.9°N 89.9°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -745 ft; Wind: NE (47°) @ 91 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 94 mph; Radar Altitude: 9288 ft
Ob #11: 02:27:00Z; 27.9°N 89.9°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -787 ft; Wind: NE (46°) @ 94 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 57°F; Max Wind: 94 mph; Radar Altitude: 9255 ft
Ob #12: 02:27:30Z; 27.9°N 89.8°W; PA: 9888 ft; D-Value: -833 ft; Wind: NE (47°) @ 97 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 58°F; Max Wind: 98 mph; Radar Altitude: 9196 ft
Ob #13: 02:28:00Z; 27.9°N 89.8°W; PA: 9911 ft; D-Value: -873 ft; Wind: NE (46°) @ 99 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 57°F; Max Wind: 100 mph; Radar Altitude: 9180 ft
Ob #14: 02:28:30Z; 27.9°N 89.8°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -922 ft; Wind: NE (44°) @ 103 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 57°F; Max Wind: 105 mph; Radar Altitude: 9117 ft
Ob #15: 02:29:00Z; 27.8°N 89.8°W; PA: 9888 ft; D-Value: -981 ft; Wind: NE (43°) @ 107 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 58°F; Max Wind: 109 mph; Radar Altitude: 9049 ft
Ob #16: 02:29:30Z; 27.8°N 89.8°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -1043 ft; Wind: NE (42°) @ 113 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 56°F; Max Wind: 114 mph; Radar Altitude: 8996 ft
Ob #17: 02:30:00Z; 27.8°N 89.7°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -1119 ft; Wind: NE (43°) @ 114 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 115 mph; Radar Altitude: 8927 ft
Ob #18: 02:30:30Z; 27.8°N 89.7°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -1201 ft; Wind: NE (43°) @ 118 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 119 mph; Radar Altitude: 8842 ft
Ob #19: 02:31:00Z; 27.8°N 89.7°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -1296 ft; Wind: NE (40°) @ 123 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 127 mph; Radar Altitude: 8740 ft
Ob #20: 02:31:30Z; 27.7°N 89.7°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -1404 ft; Wind: NE (37°) @ 134 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 138 mph; Radar Altitude: 8635 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[stormchaserCP]

The younger Met on the WWL live feed suggests Katrina may be going through an ERC, and could be in a strengthening phase as it makes landfall. He indicated what he thought may be the new outer eyewall organizing on radar. Will be interesting to see if NHC mentions anything about an ERC at 11.

[x-y-no]

Station BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LA - located at 28.90 N 89.43 W (tip of SE Louisiana) reported:

Wind Speed .......... 60 knots
Gusts ................... 78 knots
Pressure .............. 989mb falling

at 9pm central time

That location was about 100nm north of the center at that time.

[jasons2k]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html



the core is nothing like it was 6 hours ago. it was a perfect donut with reds and purples... now it's mainly just oranges with poorly organized reds.

look at the cloud tops over in the western gulf racing towards katrina. that's representative of some sheer which is starting to interfere with the storm.

i'm telling you, this is a weakening storm. it's not a wishcast. it's looking at the satellite.

and what about recon. they aren't finding the winds that they were finding earlier in the day.

all this, plus the fact that new orleans looks to be west of the center spells great news for new orleans. i would expect something like cat 2 effects.

at the very least, there is an ERC going on... and personally i think it's just plain old weakening. it takes perfect conditions to maintain a cat 5 and right now with the shallow water depth, slight land interaction, and most importantly the sheer, it can't support a cat 5, and not even a strong cat 4 for very long.

I have to disagree completely. She did go through a very slight relaxing phase, which is nothing out of the ordinary during the daytime. We are now entering a night time cycle again, so she should at least hold her own. I think the satellite presentation is actually better in the last few frames.

Also, the recon just estimated surface winds near 100MPM 65 miles north of the center. This storm is not only intense; it is huge.

Finally, it is not better for N.O. to be west of the center as you stated. The NHC predicts the center to be either right over or just east of the city, which is the worse case scenario. The lake will fill with water, then once the eye passes, a NW wind shift will inundate the city.

[Windy]

My guess is that the pressure will be up. ERC, I hope.

[tw861]

Interesting, coming out of Houston/Galveston. I thought that's where they were heading last night. I guess MS isn't safe anymore.

Yeah, they evacuated all of the planes yesterday

Actually, they are flying out Dyess AFB in Abilene. They sometimes come over to Houston when they evac out of Biloxi but I guess they didn't want to come here this time just in case the storm didn't make the turn north.

Actually, AF recon is now based out of Ellington (Houston) until further notice.

Umm, unless they moved down from Dyess this afternoon they aren't. I work for the FAA in Houston and I would have seen them flying in this morning. I worked two of them yesterday going from BIX to DYS and asked them why they were going all the way to west Texas instead of coming to Ellington. That first ob you had over Houston was at 17,000 feet if I remember correctly, it's not likely they just took off a spiraled up to altitude right over the city.

Really though, I guess it doesn't matter where they are flying out of.

[MKT2005]

She looks ugly on satalite now. Major weakening now no doubt.