Hurricane Katrina

[TPACane04]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html



the core is nothing like it was 6 hours ago. it was a perfect donut with reds and purples... now it's mainly just oranges with poorly organized reds.

look at the cloud tops over in the western gulf racing towards katrina. that's representative of some sheer which is starting to interfere with the storm.

i'm telling you, this is a weakening storm. it's not a wishcast. it's looking at the satellite.

and what about recon. they aren't finding the winds that they were finding earlier in the day.

all this, plus the fact that new orleans looks to be west of the center spells great news for new orleans. i would expect something like cat 2 effects.

at the very least, there is an ERC going on... and personally i think it's just plain old weakening. it takes perfect conditions to maintain a cat 5 and right now with the shallow water depth, slight land interaction, and most importantly the sheer, it can't support a cat 5, and not even a strong cat 4 for very long.

Please crawl back in the hole you came out of today to join our board...or better yet, since this is a weakening storm that you are not impressed with, run out and do some live TV shots for us from just south of Lake P starting tomorrow morning. I am sure conditions will be no problem for you.

[Brent]

HURRICANE KATRINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122005
0300Z MON AUG 29 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 89.4W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 904 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
50 KT.......110NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..325NE 250SE 250SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 89.4W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 89.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.2N 89.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.8N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...125NE 175SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 34.8N 88.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 37.7N 85.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 43.5N 78.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 50.0N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 89.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[MKT2005]

This looks very ugly on satalite, major weakening is happening IMO.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES
SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 170 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...AND A
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE
ALREADY DETERIORATING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA
IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND KATRINA
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT EITHER CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE
INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. A WIND GUST TO 90 MPH WAS
RECENTLY REPORTED FROM SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 904 MB...26.70 INCHES. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE
CENTER OF KATRINA VERY SHORTLY.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA
COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...27.6 N... 89.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 904 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT MIDNIGHT CDT AND 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Canebo]

There were several of the recon planes at Ellington this morning. I saw quite a bit of activity around them, but did not see any take off during the 4 hours I was there this morning. There were a large # of other AF and Navy jets there too that were moved to avoid the storm.

[CronkPSU]

This looks very ugly on satalite, major weakening is happening IMO.

man, where are all these trolls coming from

NHC report just came out, still 160 mph...they discuss it may weaken but no way do they say major weakening

[Solaris]

major weakening?

i still see a very defined eye and a very good outflow.

there are only some eyewall processes, 'minor' fluctuation of strength if you will.

[easterntree]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html



the core is nothing like it was 6 hours ago. it was a perfect donut with reds and purples... now it's mainly just oranges with poorly organized reds.

look at the cloud tops over in the western gulf racing towards katrina. that's representative of some sheer which is starting to interfere with the storm.

i'm telling you, this is a weakening storm. it's not a wishcast. it's looking at the satellite.

and what about recon. they aren't finding the winds that they were finding earlier in the day.

all this, plus the fact that new orleans looks to be west of the center spells great news for new orleans. i would expect something like cat 2 effects.

at the very least, there is an ERC going on... and personally i think it's just plain old weakening. it takes perfect conditions to maintain a cat 5 and right now with the shallow water depth, slight land interaction, and most importantly the sheer, it can't support a cat 5, and not even a strong cat 4 for very long.

First of all, it is not as strong as it was six hours ago. That being said, six hours ago, the pressure & the appearance supported winds closer to 180, although they never found them and because of its size they may not have existed, but it was a stronger storm then. However, the current pressure and appearance still support cat 5 easily.

2nd, no one ever said N.O. would get cat 5 winds, only around 100-120. Its the storm surge that is the giant threat to N.O.

3rd, this storm has strengthened slowly over time (as opposed to Lili, Dennis, etc) and has a solid base for its strength. Like a large flywheel, it will take it longer to lose strength & it will not simply fall apart because of a few offsetting negative factors. You cannot apply what one storm does to all storms. Every situation is unique

[steveklein]

i'm not saying this won't be a disaster for somebody; ivan sure was...

but i don't understand why you guys can't see that this thing is CLEARLY a significantly weaker storm than just a little while ago. yeah, 140 or 145 is still bad news... but it's a far cry from 160-175. the core is not NEARLY as impressive as it was.

maybe it will get its act together before landfall... but seeing the sheer coming from the west, and reading the NHC discussion lends me to think the weakening will continue.

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Flt Data Number: 11
Latest Recon Position: 141 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 02:42:00Z; 27.6°N 89.4°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -2323 ft; Wind: ESE (121°) @ 35 mph; Temp: 72°F; Dewpt: 56°F; Max Wind: 41 mph; Radar Altitude: 7720 ft
Ob #02: 02:42:30Z; 27.7°N 89.4°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -2274 ft; Wind: ESE (118°) @ 48 mph; Temp: 67°F; Dewpt: 60°F; Max Wind: 52 mph; Radar Altitude: 7762 ft
Ob #03: 02:43:00Z; 27.7°N 89.3°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -2241 ft; Wind: ESE (122°) @ 55 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 63°F; Max Wind: 56 mph; Radar Altitude: 7795 ft
Ob #04: 02:43:30Z; 27.7°N 89.3°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -2247 ft; Wind: SE (124°) @ 58 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 63°F; Max Wind: 58 mph; Radar Altitude: 7792 ft
Ob #05: 02:44:00Z; 27.6°N 89.3°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -2280 ft; Wind: SE (136°) @ 48 mph; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Max Wind: 53 mph; Radar Altitude: 7762 ft
Ob #06: 02:44:30Z; 27.6°N 89.3°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -2316 ft; Wind: SE (143°) @ 37 mph; Temp: 71°F; Dewpt: 56°F; Max Wind: 41 mph; Radar Altitude: 7717 ft
Ob #07: 02:45:00Z; 27.6°N 89.3°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -2339 ft; Wind: SSE (151°) @ 25 mph; Temp: 73°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 29 mph; Radar Altitude: 7703 ft
Ob #08: 02:45:30Z; 27.6°N 89.3°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -2346 ft; Wind: S (176°) @ 21 mph; Temp: 74°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 23 mph; Radar Altitude: 7690 ft
Ob #09: 02:46:00Z; 27.5°N 89.3°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -2346 ft; Wind: SSW (207°) @ 18 mph; Temp: 74°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 20 mph; Radar Altitude: 7684 ft
Ob #10: 02:46:30Z; 27.5°N 89.3°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -2326 ft; Wind: SW (230°) @ 32 mph; Temp: 74°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 40 mph; Radar Altitude: 7720 ft
Ob #11: 02:47:00Z; 27.5°N 89.3°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -2293 ft; Wind: WSW (244°) @ 51 mph; Temp: 71°F; Dewpt: 57°F; Max Wind: 59 mph; Radar Altitude: 7740 ft
Ob #12: 02:47:30Z; 27.5°N 89.3°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -2228 ft; Wind: WSW (248°) @ 78 mph; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Max Wind: 88 mph; Radar Altitude: 7815 ft
Ob #13: 02:48:00Z; 27.4°N 89.3°W; PA: 9915 ft; D-Value: -2126 ft; Wind: WSW (251°) @ 107 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 63°F; Max Wind: 118 mph; Radar Altitude: 7927 ft
Ob #14: 02:48:30Z; 27.4°N 89.3°W; PA: 9885 ft; D-Value: -1991 ft; Wind: WSW (251°) @ 128 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 60°F; Max Wind: 138 mph; Radar Altitude: 8031 ft
Ob #15: 02:49:00Z; 27.4°N 89.3°W; PA: 9944 ft; D-Value: -1818 ft; Wind: WSW (243°) @ 152 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 57°F; Max Wind: 154 mph; Radar Altitude: 8264 ft
Ob #16: 02:49:30Z; 27.4°N 89.3°W; PA: 9872 ft; D-Value: -1667 ft; Wind: WSW (237°) @ 150 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 151 mph; Radar Altitude: 8343 ft
Ob #17: 02:50:00Z; 27.3°N 89.2°W; PA: 9944 ft; D-Value: -1526 ft; Wind: SW (236°) @ 144 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 146 mph; Radar Altitude: 8556 ft
Ob #18: 02:50:30Z; 27.3°N 89.2°W; PA: 10062 ft; D-Value: -1401 ft; Wind: SW (233°) @ 142 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 143 mph; Radar Altitude: 8802 ft
Ob #19: 02:51:00Z; 27.3°N 89.2°W; PA: 9928 ft; D-Value: -1309 ft; Wind: SW (230°) @ 141 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 142 mph; Radar Altitude: 8760 ft
Ob #20: 02:51:30Z; 27.3°N 89.2°W; PA: 9888 ft; D-Value: -1227 ft; Wind: SW (229°) @ 136 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 139 mph; Radar Altitude: 8802 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[Lowpressure]

She looks ugly on satalite now. Major weakening now no doubt.

Ugly, what are you looking at? Recon message above is new and they already have 154 at flight level.

[Thunder44]

Recon pilot was just talking to Geraldo said they found a 145kt wind at flight level.

[Tri-State_1925]

Yeah, as long as the eye looks like it does, it's going to be pretty damn strong...

[tw861]

There were several of the recon planes at Ellington this morning. I saw quite a bit of activity around them, but did not see any take off during the 4 hours I was there this morning. There were a large # of other AF and Navy jets there too that were moved to avoid the storm.

Well it is quite possible they are there, but a least 2 of them went to Abilene yesterday because I talked to both of them. Makes more sense to fly out of Ellington though. Anyway make no sense wasting posts about where they are flying from because all that matters to me is that they are flying.

[senorpepr]

Interesting, coming out of Houston/Galveston. I thought that's where they were heading last night. I guess MS isn't safe anymore.

Yeah, they evacuated all of the planes yesterday

Actually, they are flying out Dyess AFB in Abilene. They sometimes come over to Houston when they evac out of Biloxi but I guess they didn't want to come here this time just in case the storm didn't make the turn north.

Actually, AF recon is now based out of Ellington (Houston) until further notice.

Umm, unless they moved down from Dyess this afternoon they aren't. I work for the FAA in Houston and I would have seen them flying in this morning. I worked two of them yesterday going from BIX to DYS and asked them why they were going all the way to west Texas instead of coming to Ellington. That first ob you had over Houston was at 17,000 feet if I remember correctly, it's not likely they just took off a spiraled up to altitude right over the city.

Really though, I guess it doesn't matter where they are flying out of.

The first ob, which I didn't get decoded, had a radar altitude of 0ft at Houston.

[TPACane04]

give it up, we ain't buying your sack of BS...you look at this WV loop and show me the all the dry air and shear....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

the last few frames show the purple is almost surrounding the eye again, and could actually gain more strength prior to landfall.

[Brent]

She looks ugly on satalite now. Major weakening now no doubt.

She's one of the most impressive hurricanes I've ever seen...

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Flt Data Number: 12
Latest Recon Position: 179 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 02:52:00Z; 27.3°N 89.1°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -1142 ft; Wind: SW (229°) @ 135 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 137 mph; Radar Altitude: 8904 ft
Ob #02: 02:52:30Z; 27.3°N 89.1°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -1066 ft; Wind: SW (229°) @ 134 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 136 mph; Radar Altitude: 8976 ft
Ob #03: 02:53:00Z; 27.2°N 89.1°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -994 ft; Wind: SW (227°) @ 128 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 130 mph; Radar Altitude: 9042 ft
Ob #04: 02:53:30Z; 27.2°N 89.1°W; PA: 9911 ft; D-Value: -935 ft; Wind: SW (225°) @ 124 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 127 mph; Radar Altitude: 9117 ft
Ob #05: 02:54:00Z; 27.2°N 89.1°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -883 ft; Wind: SW (227°) @ 122 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 123 mph; Radar Altitude: 9157 ft
Ob #06: 02:54:30Z; 27.2°N 89°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -837 ft; Wind: SW (227°) @ 121 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 122 mph; Radar Altitude: 9213 ft
Ob #07: 02:55:00Z; 27.2°N 89°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -791 ft; Wind: SW (226°) @ 118 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 118 mph; Radar Altitude: 9242 ft
Ob #08: 02:55:30Z; 27.1°N 89°W; PA: 9911 ft; D-Value: -745 ft; Wind: SW (225°) @ 116 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 118 mph; Radar Altitude: 9308 ft
Ob #09: 02:56:00Z; 27.1°N 89°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -719 ft; Wind: SW (223°) @ 112 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 114 mph; Radar Altitude: 9321 ft
Ob #10: 02:56:30Z; 27.1°N 88.9°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -679 ft; Wind: SW (223°) @ 111 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 112 mph; Radar Altitude: 9364 ft
Ob #11: 02:57:00Z; 27.1°N 88.9°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -643 ft; Wind: SW (224°) @ 116 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 118 mph; Radar Altitude: 9396 ft
Ob #12: 02:57:30Z; 27.1°N 88.9°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -607 ft; Wind: SW (221°) @ 126 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 128 mph; Radar Altitude: 9439 ft
Ob #13: 02:58:00Z; 27.1°N 88.9°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -574 ft; Wind: SW (222°) @ 123 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 124 mph; Radar Altitude: 9462 ft
Ob #14: 02:58:30Z; 27°N 88.9°W; PA: 9911 ft; D-Value: -538 ft; Wind: SW (222°) @ 122 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 122 mph; Radar Altitude: 9514 ft
Ob #15: 02:59:00Z; 27°N 88.8°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -505 ft; Wind: SW (221°) @ 120 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 120 mph; Radar Altitude: 9541 ft
Ob #16: 02:59:30Z; 27°N 88.8°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -472 ft; Wind: SW (222°) @ 120 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 122 mph; Radar Altitude: 9560 ft
Ob #17: 03:00:00Z; 27°N 88.8°W; PA: 9911 ft; D-Value: -440 ft; Wind: SW (223°) @ 122 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 122 mph; Radar Altitude: 9613 ft
Ob #18: 03:00:30Z; 27°N 88.8°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -407 ft; Wind: SW (224°) @ 119 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 121 mph; Radar Altitude: 9633 ft
Ob #19: 03:01:00Z; 26.9°N 88.8°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -374 ft; Wind: SW (224°) @ 115 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 116 mph; Radar Altitude: 9669 ft
Ob #20: 03:01:30Z; 26.9°N 88.7°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -344 ft; Wind: SW (225°) @ 114 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 115 mph; Radar Altitude: 9701 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[Brent]

maybe it will get its act together before landfall... but seeing the sheer coming from the west, and reading the NHC discussion lends me to think the weakening will continue.

WOW... 5 whole knots.

[oneness]

The latest NHC report is 904 millibars and 160 mph sustained. It will remain a 5 unless that pressure rises above about 920 to 925 millibars.

Don't kid yourself!

This is a Cat 5, it may fall to be a strong Cat 4 at landfall but it won't make any difference at this point, as NO is extremely likely to suffer a direct hit at this point.