ERC in progress?

[jpigott]

Max Mayfield on CNN stated there looks to be a outer concentric eyewall forming and cutting off inflow to the inner eyewall. My question is if this is an ERC will there be enough time for it to complete or will the gulf catch a "weakening" cat 4?

[Kennethb]

It appears that the forward speed has decreased slightly. With the warm waters, time, and the fact that many landfalling storms seem to flex their muscles at landfall, she could have time for EWR.

Slighly slower speed gives more time to pile water into Lake Pontchartrain.

Hard to imagine the destruction that is likely to occur.

Interesting how a city that had never had a white Christmas is now having a Cat 4-5 hurricane.

[ConvergenceZone]

yep, they said that's starting to happen in the latest discussion too. It's good news and bad news. It's good news because that means that the hurricane may weaken more than anticipated before landfall, but bad news due to the fact that it also expands the windfield. Eyewall Replacement Cycles usually take 12 to 18 hours, so it won't have time to strengthen after it's completed. They aren't calling for possible strengthening anymore, they just aren't sure how much it will weaken prior to landfall and I have no clue myself

[THead]

Max Mayfield on CNN stated there looks to be a outer concentric eyewall forming and cutting off inflow to the inner eyewall. My question is if this is an ERC will there be enough time for it to complete or will the gulf catch a "weakening" cat 4?

Yeah he really lost me on that last portion of the discussion. He didn't mention ERC but is that what he meant to say? He said something about data from a pole orbiting sat........ but he also did say if whatever he was talking about happens, it would also expand the windfield. Anyone else hear this interview that can shed some light?

[mtm4319]

It appears that the forward speed has decreased slightly. With the warm waters, time, and the fact that many landfalling storms seem to flex their muscles at landfall, she could have time for EWR.

Slighly slower speed gives more time to pile water into Lake Pontchartrain.

Hard to imagine the destruction that is likely to occur.

Interesting how a city that had never had a white Christmas is now having a Cat 4-5 hurricane.

But they did have a white Christmas -- last year. Two meteorological flukes for New Orleans in eight months.

[jpigott]

yep, they said that's starting to happen in the latest discussion too. It's good news and bad news. It's good news because that means that the hurricane may weaken more than anticipated before landfall, but bad news due to the fact that it also expands the windfield. Eyewall Replacement Cycles usually take 12 to 18 hours, so it won't have time to strengthen after it's completed. They aren't calling for possible strengthening anymore, they just aren't sure how much it will weaken prior to landfall and I have no clue myself

i've heard from some mets here that with larger/stronger storms ERC takes considerably less time to complete. approx 4-6 hrs, could be wrong, if i am please someone correct me

[eolian]

With the central pressure still holding at 908milibars and the last few frames of the IR sat pics make it appear the storm is compacting again. this occurs before an intensification phase.
someone called it making a fist i dont remember the posters name but he is right if you watch when it compacts it spins faster...

[ConvergenceZone]

yep, still an extremely dangerous storm that's for sure. I was going to try and stay up until landfall, but kinda tought when ya have to go to work the next day

[milankovitch]

yep, they said that's starting to happen in the latest discussion too. It's good news and bad news. It's good news because that means that the hurricane may weaken more than anticipated before landfall, but bad news due to the fact that it also expands the windfield. Eyewall Replacement Cycles usually take 12 to 18 hours, so it won't have time to strengthen after it's completed. They aren't calling for possible strengthening anymore, they just aren't sure how much it will weaken prior to landfall and I have no clue myself

i've heard from some mets here that with larger/stronger storms ERC takes considerably less time to complete. approx 4-6 hrs, could be wrong, if i am please someone correct me

That is correct.