Hurricane Katrina

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storms in NC
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#1921 Postby storms in NC » Sun Aug 28, 2005 10:56 pm

Just looked at the WV loop and it looks better than it did a hour ago.
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#1922 Postby Daisy27 » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:02 pm

Have they sampled the NE quad yet. daisy
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#1923 Postby djtil » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:04 pm

i believe they went nw to se...
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#1924 Postby senorpepr » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:09 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Flt Data Number: 18
Latest Recon Position: 105 mi ESE of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 03:52:00Z; 28.8°N 88°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: 46 ft; Wind: SSE (151°) @ 107 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 108 mph; Radar Altitude: 10095 ft
Ob #02: 03:52:30Z; 28.9°N 88°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: 49 ft; Wind: SSE (149°) @ 105 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Max Wind: 109 mph; Radar Altitude: 10092 ft
Ob #03: 03:53:00Z; 28.9°N 88°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: 49 ft; Wind: SE (146°) @ 112 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 118 mph; Radar Altitude: 10085 ft
Ob #04: 03:53:30Z; 29°N 88°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: 56 ft; Wind: SE (142°) @ 111 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 112 mph; Radar Altitude: 10102 ft
Ob #05: 03:54:00Z; 29°N 88°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: 66 ft; Wind: SE (140°) @ 111 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 112 mph; Radar Altitude: 10105 ft
Ob #06: 03:54:30Z; 29°N 88°W; PA: 9915 ft; D-Value: 95 ft; Wind: SE (138°) @ 111 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 47°F; Max Wind: 112 mph; Radar Altitude: 10148 ft
Ob #07: 03:55:00Z; 29.1°N 88.1°W; PA: 9911 ft; D-Value: 102 ft; Wind: SE (133°) @ 113 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 114 mph; Radar Altitude: 10154 ft
Ob #08: 03:55:30Z; 29°N 88.1°W; PA: 9888 ft; D-Value: 62 ft; Wind: SE (136°) @ 107 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 109 mph; Radar Altitude: 10092 ft
Ob #09: 03:56:00Z; 29°N 88.1°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: 49 ft; Wind: SE (136°) @ 106 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: 46°F; Max Wind: 107 mph; Radar Altitude: 10095 ft
Ob #10: 03:56:30Z; 29°N 88.1°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: 39 ft; Wind: SE (136°) @ 105 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 106 mph; Radar Altitude: 10072 ft
Ob #11: 03:57:00Z; 29°N 88.2°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: 26 ft; Wind: SE (138°) @ 104 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 106 mph; Radar Altitude: 10069 ft
Ob #12: 03:57:30Z; 29°N 88.2°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: 20 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 105 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 107 mph; Radar Altitude: 10062 ft
Ob #13: 03:58:00Z; 28.9°N 88.2°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: 23 ft; Wind: SE (143°) @ 98 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 99 mph; Radar Altitude: 10062 ft
Ob #14: 03:58:30Z; 28.9°N 88.2°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: 20 ft; Wind: SE (142°) @ 97 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 99 mph; Radar Altitude: 10066 ft
Ob #15: 03:59:00Z; 28.9°N 88.3°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: 13 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 98 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 99 mph; Radar Altitude: 10056 ft
Ob #16: 03:59:30Z; 28.9°N 88.3°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: 3 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 101 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 101 mph; Radar Altitude: 10049 ft
Ob #17: 04:00:00Z; 28.9°N 88.3°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -7 ft; Wind: SE (142°) @ 103 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 103 mph; Radar Altitude: 10033 ft
Ob #18: 04:00:30Z; 28.9°N 88.3°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -20 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 104 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 104 mph; Radar Altitude: 10026 ft
Ob #19: 04:01:00Z; 28.8°N 88.3°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -33 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 105 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 106 mph; Radar Altitude: 10010 ft
Ob #20: 04:01:30Z; 28.8°N 88.4°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -49 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 104 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 105 mph; Radar Altitude: 9993 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect
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#1925 Postby senorpepr » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:10 pm

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Observation Number: 09
Time: 0355Z
Latitude: 29.0°N
Longitude: 88.1°W
Location: 109 mi SSE of Biloxi, Mississippi
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 9900 feet
Flight level wind: SE (140°) @ 106 mph
Temperature: 46°F
Dewpoint: 46°F
Weather: Thunderstorm
700mb height: 9900 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
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#1926 Postby THead » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:11 pm

Anyone notice how Katrina has kind of kept one of its signatures from early on, the latest IR's show the southern eye-wall/core area is stronger than the northern side? Not that it'll make much difference if any at landfall, just seems strange how these storms have a personality, and they hang onto it, even from Cat 1 to Cat 5 in this case.
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#1927 Postby senorpepr » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:12 pm

They are beginning to head into the NE quad...

Image
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#1928 Postby Ixolib » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:13 pm

So...

First landfall - Florida

Second Landfall - Louisiana

Third Landfall - Louisiana (and Mississippi)
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#1929 Postby senorpepr » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:18 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Flt Data Number: 19
Latest Recon Position: 91 mi ESE of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 04:02:00Z; 28.8°N 88.4°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -59 ft; Wind: SE (139°) @ 105 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Max Wind: 106 mph; Radar Altitude: 9984 ft
Ob #02: 04:02:30Z; 28.8°N 88.4°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -72 ft; Wind: SE (139°) @ 105 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 47°F; Max Wind: 106 mph; Radar Altitude: 9974 ft
Ob #03: 04:03:00Z; 28.8°N 88.4°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -85 ft; Wind: SE (139°) @ 105 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: 47°F; Max Wind: 105 mph; Radar Altitude: 9957 ft
Ob #04: 04:03:30Z; 28.7°N 88.4°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -98 ft; Wind: SE (140°) @ 103 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Max Wind: 104 mph; Radar Altitude: 9944 ft
Ob #05: 04:04:00Z; 28.7°N 88.5°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -115 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 103 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 48°F; Max Wind: 104 mph; Radar Altitude: 9928 ft
Ob #06: 04:04:30Z; 28.7°N 88.5°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -131 ft; Wind: SE (140°) @ 105 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 106 mph; Radar Altitude: 9908 ft
Ob #07: 04:05:00Z; 28.7°N 88.5°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -148 ft; Wind: SE (140°) @ 106 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 106 mph; Radar Altitude: 9895 ft
Ob #08: 04:05:30Z; 28.7°N 88.5°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -161 ft; Wind: SE (140°) @ 108 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 109 mph; Radar Altitude: 9879 ft
Ob #09: 04:06:00Z; 28.7°N 88.5°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -177 ft; Wind: SE (140°) @ 112 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 113 mph; Radar Altitude: 9865 ft
Ob #10: 04:06:30Z; 28.6°N 88.6°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -194 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 114 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 114 mph; Radar Altitude: 9836 ft
Ob #11: 04:07:00Z; 28.6°N 88.6°W; PA: 9918 ft; D-Value: -213 ft; Wind: SE (144°) @ 114 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 115 mph; Radar Altitude: 9846 ft
Ob #12: 04:07:30Z; 28.6°N 88.6°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -230 ft; Wind: SE (145°) @ 114 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 116 mph; Radar Altitude: 9803 ft
Ob #13: 04:08:00Z; 28.6°N 88.6°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -249 ft; Wind: SE (145°) @ 115 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 115 mph; Radar Altitude: 9797 ft
Ob #14: 04:08:30Z; 28.6°N 88.6°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -266 ft; Wind: SE (144°) @ 114 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 115 mph; Radar Altitude: 9780 ft
Ob #15: 04:09:00Z; 28.6°N 88.7°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -282 ft; Wind: SE (144°) @ 113 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 114 mph; Radar Altitude: 9760 ft
Ob #16: 04:09:30Z; 28.5°N 88.7°W; PA: 9911 ft; D-Value: -302 ft; Wind: SE (139°) @ 118 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 122 mph; Radar Altitude: 9751 ft
Ob #17: 04:10:00Z; 28.5°N 88.7°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -322 ft; Wind: SE (139°) @ 115 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 116 mph; Radar Altitude: 9711 ft
Ob #18: 04:10:30Z; 28.5°N 88.7°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -338 ft; Wind: SE (140°) @ 115 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 118 mph; Radar Altitude: 9698 ft
Ob #19: 04:11:00Z; 28.5°N 88.7°W; PA: 9911 ft; D-Value: -361 ft; Wind: SE (140°) @ 111 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 112 mph; Radar Altitude: 9692 ft
Ob #20: 04:11:30Z; 28.5°N 88.8°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -390 ft; Wind: SE (136°) @ 120 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 122 mph; Radar Altitude: 9656 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect
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#1930 Postby senorpepr » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:26 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Flt Data Number: 20
Latest Recon Position: 92 mi SE of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 04:12:00Z; 28.4°N 88.8°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -417 ft; Wind: SE (140°) @ 120 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 121 mph; Radar Altitude: 9626 ft
Ob #02: 04:12:30Z; 28.4°N 88.8°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -443 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 122 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 123 mph; Radar Altitude: 9596 ft
Ob #03: 04:13:00Z; 28.4°N 88.8°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -469 ft; Wind: SE (138°) @ 126 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 127 mph; Radar Altitude: 9577 ft
Ob #04: 04:13:30Z; 28.4°N 88.8°W; PA: 9885 ft; D-Value: -502 ft; Wind: SE (137°) @ 128 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 130 mph; Radar Altitude: 9524 ft
Ob #05: 04:14:00Z; 28.4°N 88.9°W; PA: 9911 ft; D-Value: -538 ft; Wind: SE (135°) @ 132 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 135 mph; Radar Altitude: 9514 ft
Ob #06: 04:14:30Z; 28.4°N 88.9°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -574 ft; Wind: SE (133°) @ 129 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 131 mph; Radar Altitude: 9469 ft
Ob #07: 04:15:00Z; 28.3°N 88.9°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -614 ft; Wind: SE (132°) @ 137 mph; Temp: 45°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 139 mph; Radar Altitude: 9426 ft
Ob #08: 04:15:30Z; 28.3°N 88.9°W; PA: 9915 ft; D-Value: -653 ft; Wind: SE (133°) @ 139 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 144 mph; Radar Altitude: 9400 ft
Ob #09: 04:16:00Z; 28.3°N 88.9°W; PA: 9915 ft; D-Value: -676 ft; Wind: SE (142°) @ 138 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 142 mph; Radar Altitude: 9380 ft
Ob #10: 04:16:30Z; 28.3°N 89°W; PA: 9885 ft; D-Value: -709 ft; Wind: SE (146°) @ 119 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 122 mph; Radar Altitude: 9314 ft
Ob #11: 04:17:00Z; 28.3°N 89°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -738 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 112 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 113 mph; Radar Altitude: 9304 ft
Ob #12: 04:17:30Z; 28.3°N 89°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -768 ft; Wind: SE (142°) @ 118 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 118 mph; Radar Altitude: 9278 ft
Ob #13: 04:18:00Z; 28.2°N 89°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -804 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 121 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 121 mph; Radar Altitude: 9236 ft
Ob #14: 04:18:30Z; 28.2°N 89°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -843 ft; Wind: SE (141°) @ 121 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 56°F; Max Wind: 122 mph; Radar Altitude: 9190 ft
Ob #15: 04:19:00Z; 28.2°N 89.1°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -883 ft; Wind: SE (142°) @ 128 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 130 mph; Radar Altitude: 9160 ft
Ob #16: 04:19:30Z; 28.2°N 89.1°W; PA: 9911 ft; D-Value: -932 ft; Wind: SE (140°) @ 131 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 132 mph; Radar Altitude: 9117 ft
Ob #17: 04:20:00Z; 28.2°N 89.1°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -981 ft; Wind: SE (139°) @ 131 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 132 mph; Radar Altitude: 9058 ft
Ob #18: 04:20:30Z; 28.2°N 89.1°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -1030 ft; Wind: SE (139°) @ 132 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 134 mph; Radar Altitude: 9012 ft
Ob #19: 04:21:00Z; 28.1°N 89.1°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -1089 ft; Wind: SE (139°) @ 135 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 136 mph; Radar Altitude: 8944 ft
Ob #20: 04:21:30Z; 28.1°N 89.2°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -1148 ft; Wind: SE (139°) @ 138 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 139 mph; Radar Altitude: 8898 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect
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#1931 Postby drezee » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:28 pm

looks like a double wind max...ERC in the making
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#1932 Postby storm4u » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:33 pm

this might not be good at all!! :(
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#1933 Postby storms in NC » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:34 pm

What do you mean?
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#1934 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:35 pm

storm4u wrote:this might not be good at all!! :(


Why? Wouldn't that prevent more strengthening?
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#1935 Postby shortwave » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:36 pm

running out of room to reintensify after. not sure if the expanded wind field is worth the trade off for the slightly lower winds
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#1936 Postby storm4u » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:37 pm

i see it getting stronger just before landfall! It might complete an erc just before landfall and be getting stronger as it moves onshore!
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#1937 Postby djtil » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:37 pm

i think going from 190mph flight level to around 150mph is well well worth the tradeoff.
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#1938 Postby Windy » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:37 pm

Yes, it likely would, though it will spread the hurricane force winds even further out. Given that they extend out 105 miles from the center already, that's bad news. NOLA is probably fubar no matter what, but this spreads the winds out to reach out and touch many more places. The only hope is that this will somehow make the entire storm collapse, and that's more a prayer for divine intervention than a realistic outcome.
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#1939 Postby djtil » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:41 pm

divine intervention than a realistic outcome.


lili went from cat 4 to cat 1 in about 6 hours......i watched it with my own eyes and probably still classify it as divine intervention!!

i had stubborn family refuse to leave 15 miles from the coast....the next day they said they would never stay for another storm...they have no idea.
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#1940 Postby jpigott » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:44 pm

here goes an involved ? for our professionals - if this is an ERC taking place and it doesn't finish by the time it makes landfall in the LA delta (south of NO) could it complete it and re-intensify prior to reaching "mainland" LA. I ask b/c i know the delta is more or less swamp land and we saw Katrina early in her life barely flinch as she crossed the FLA everglades. Another ?, how can the flight winds be that low with a 908mp pressure reading, something just seems off
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