Opinions East OF NO or West for Landfall

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samanthahunter
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Opinions East OF NO or West for Landfall

#1 Postby samanthahunter » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:15 pm

"Hunkered down" in Mobile just wanted to know what others are thinking.
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mtm4319
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#2 Postby mtm4319 » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:17 pm

East by 20-30 miles is my guess.
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#3 Postby crazycajuncane » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:18 pm

Slightly to the east. I think the west movement has come to an end.

Unless we see a significant jog to the west, I think it will hit to the east of New Orleans.
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#4 Postby djtil » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:20 pm

i think east is pretty much the only answer to this now.....probably 15-30 miles......still hope of missing the eyewall but not much.
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AL Chili Pepper
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#5 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:30 pm

If it doesn't start moving due north real soon, it's going to go right over NO. I don't think it'll go west of there though.
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#6 Postby InshoreFanatic » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:32 pm

From what i can see, she is moving due north now :roll:
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#7 Postby djtil » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:34 pm

yeah...looking at the radar and assuming the graphics are perfectly alligned, and assuming no easterly component until past nola....its now time for any western component to end if new orleans is to miss the eye.
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#8 Postby djtil » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:35 pm

From what i can see, she is moving due north now


definitely not, radar clearly shows westerly component to movement in the last 2 hours.
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#9 Postby THead » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:36 pm

AL Chili Pepper wrote:If it doesn't start moving due north real soon, it's going to go right over NO. I don't think it'll go west of there though.


Yep, looks dead on NO or ever so slightly to the east. Although maybe it'll do a little jog when it makes landfall before NO, kind of like the landfall in S. Fla., question would be which way.
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#10 Postby leonardo » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:39 pm

actually...it will make landfall south of New Orleans
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#11 Postby djtil » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:44 pm

good point leo....just imagine what we would be dealing with if nola was reallly a coastal city.....at least the actual ocean surge isnt in play....at least not on a first order basis.
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#12 Postby timNms » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:44 pm

just a tad to the east is my estimate
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#13 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Aug 28, 2005 11:48 pm

djtil wrote:good point leo....just imagine what we would be dealing with if nola was reallly a coastal city.....at least the actual ocean surge isnt in play....at least not on a first order basis.


The surge from Katrina will be completely covering some of the parishs South of NO. The surge in the NO area is self is expected to get to 20 in the lakes which surround NO. The highest levee I know of in NO is 21.5'. It may not be "direct ocean surge" but I don't think anyone will know the difference.

At this time it appears to me that Katrina will probably pass no more than 20 miles East of NO easily putting the majority of the city in the Western eyewall. Still also a distinct possibility of a direct, but I think that is diminishing slilghtly as the trough over TX is begiinning to affect the NW outer fringes of Katrina
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