Hurricane Katrina

[jpigott]

not good - pressure appears to have leveled off at 910mb and it looks like flight winds have increased a little (131kts to 134kts) in the SE quad

[btangy]

134 knots again... so, NHC will likely decrease winds to 140-145mph next intermediate advisory which will be coming out soon.

[jkt21787]

134 knots again... so, NHC will likely decrease winds to 140-145mph next intermediate advisory which will be coming out soon.

I'm not sure given the reports that NE quad data isn't being transmitted.

So my question would be...Does this account for the NE quad data and the highest winds are in fact in the SE quad?

[jpigott]

134 knots again... so, NHC will likely decrease winds to 140-145mph next intermediate advisory which will be coming out soon.

unlikely, thats the SE quad not the NE quad, unless for some strange reason the SE quad has higher wind readings

[btangy]

Well, since that's a vortex message, I'm assuming those are the max winds they found anywhere in their sampling. Do correct me if I'm wrong.

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Flt Data Number: 30
Latest Recon Position: 27 mi ENE of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 06:30:30Z; 29.4°N 88.8°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -135 ft; Wind: SE (135°) @ 108 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 109 mph; Radar Altitude: 9905 ft
Ob #02: 06:31:00Z; 29.4°N 88.8°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -141 ft; Wind: SE (133°) @ 106 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 107 mph; Radar Altitude: 9895 ft
Ob #03: 06:31:30Z; 29.4°N 88.9°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -154 ft; Wind: SE (131°) @ 109 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 109 mph; Radar Altitude: 9895 ft
Ob #04: 06:32:00Z; 29.4°N 88.9°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -164 ft; Wind: SE (129°) @ 109 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 111 mph; Radar Altitude: 9872 ft
Ob #05: 06:32:30Z; 29.4°N 89°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -174 ft; Wind: SE (124°) @ 111 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 111 mph; Radar Altitude: 9865 ft
Ob #06: 06:33:00Z; 29.4°N 89°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -180 ft; Wind: ESE (120°) @ 108 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 108 mph; Radar Altitude: 9862 ft
Ob #07: 06:33:30Z; 29.4°N 89.1°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -190 ft; Wind: ESE (120°) @ 109 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 111 mph; Radar Altitude: 9849 ft
Ob #08: 06:34:00Z; 29.4°N 89.1°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -197 ft; Wind: ESE (121°) @ 107 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 109 mph; Radar Altitude: 9843 ft
Ob #09: 06:34:30Z; 29.4°N 89.2°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -203 ft; Wind: ESE (118°) @ 104 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 106 mph; Radar Altitude: 9833 ft
Ob #10: 06:35:00Z; 29.4°N 89.2°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -210 ft; Wind: ESE (116°) @ 100 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 101 mph; Radar Altitude: 9833 ft
Ob #11: 06:35:30Z; 29.4°N 89.3°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -217 ft; Wind: ESE (114°) @ 100 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 101 mph; Radar Altitude: 9823 ft
Ob #12: 06:36:00Z; 29.4°N 89.3°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -217 ft; Wind: ESE (113°) @ 103 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 104 mph; Radar Altitude: 9829 ft
Ob #13: 06:36:30Z; 29.4°N 89.4°W; PA: 9888 ft; D-Value: -226 ft; Wind: ESE (109°) @ 96 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 97 mph; Radar Altitude: 9803 ft
Ob #14: 06:37:00Z; 29.4°N 89.4°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -230 ft; Wind: ESE (109°) @ 100 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 103 mph; Radar Altitude: 9820 ft
Ob #15: 06:37:30Z; 29.4°N 89.5°W; PA: 9888 ft; D-Value: -230 ft; Wind: ESE (109°) @ 103 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 104 mph; Radar Altitude: 9797 ft
Ob #16: 06:38:00Z; 29.4°N 89.5°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -236 ft; Wind: ESE (107°) @ 101 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 103 mph; Radar Altitude: 9810 ft
Ob #17: 06:38:30Z; 29.4°N 89.5°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -230 ft; Wind: ESE (105°) @ 98 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 100 mph; Radar Altitude: 9813 ft
Ob #18: 06:39:00Z; 29.4°N 89.6°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -246 ft; Wind: ESE (102°) @ 94 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 97 mph; Radar Altitude: 9787 ft
Ob #19: 06:39:30Z; 29.4°N 89.6°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -249 ft; Wind: ESE (102°) @ 94 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 97 mph; Radar Altitude: 9793 ft
Ob #20: 06:40:00Z; 29.4°N 89.7°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -240 ft; Wind: ESE (102°) @ 94 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 96 mph; Radar Altitude: 9806 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Flt Data Number: 31
Latest Recon Position: 35 mi SE of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 06:40:30Z; 29.4°N 89.7°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -259 ft; Wind: ESE (102°) @ 96 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 98 mph; Radar Altitude: 9774 ft
Ob #02: 06:41:00Z; 29.3°N 89.7°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -279 ft; Wind: ESE (106°) @ 97 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 98 mph; Radar Altitude: 9760 ft
Ob #03: 06:41:30Z; 29.3°N 89.7°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -292 ft; Wind: ESE (104°) @ 97 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 99 mph; Radar Altitude: 9757 ft
Ob #04: 06:42:00Z; 29.3°N 89.7°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -312 ft; Wind: E (101°) @ 104 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 107 mph; Radar Altitude: 9721 ft
Ob #05: 06:42:30Z; 29.3°N 89.7°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -328 ft; Wind: ESE (102°) @ 106 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 106 mph; Radar Altitude: 9705 ft
Ob #06: 06:43:00Z; 29.3°N 89.7°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -348 ft; Wind: E (101°) @ 105 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 106 mph; Radar Altitude: 9701 ft
Ob #07: 06:43:30Z; 29.2°N 89.7°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -364 ft; Wind: E (100°) @ 106 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 108 mph; Radar Altitude: 9672 ft
Ob #08: 06:44:00Z; 29.2°N 89.7°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -387 ft; Wind: E (98°) @ 107 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 108 mph; Radar Altitude: 9646 ft
Ob #09: 06:44:30Z; 29.2°N 89.7°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -410 ft; Wind: E (96°) @ 111 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 112 mph; Radar Altitude: 9639 ft
Ob #10: 06:45:00Z; 29.2°N 89.7°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -436 ft; Wind: E (97°) @ 108 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 109 mph; Radar Altitude: 9603 ft
Ob #11: 06:45:30Z; 29.1°N 89.7°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -453 ft; Wind: E (96°) @ 112 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 115 mph; Radar Altitude: 9577 ft
Ob #12: 06:46:00Z; **** ****; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: ****; Wind: E (93°) @ 118 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 119 mph; Radar Altitude: 9567 ft
Ob #13: 06:46:30Z; **** ****; PA: 9911 ft; D-Value: ****; Wind: E (92°) @ 114 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 116 mph; Radar Altitude: 9537 ft
Ob #14: 06:47:00Z; **** ****; PA: 9882 ft; D-Value: ****; Wind: E (94°) @ 116 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 119 mph; Radar Altitude: 9478 ft
Ob #15: 06:47:30Z; **** ****; PA: 9911 ft; D-Value: ****; Wind: E (94°) @ 109 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 115 mph; Radar Altitude: 9469 ft
Ob #16: 06:48:00Z; **** ****; PA: 10059 ft; D-Value: ****; Wind: E (94°) @ 129 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 141 mph; Radar Altitude: 9590 ft
Ob #17: 06:48:30Z; **** ****; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: ****; Wind: E (97°) @ 134 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 135 mph; Radar Altitude: 9501 ft
Ob #18: 06:49:00Z; **** ****; PA: 9872 ft; D-Value: ****; Wind: E (100°) @ 130 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 139 mph; Radar Altitude: 9308 ft
Ob #19: 06:49:30Z; **** ****; PA: 9921 ft; D-Value: ****; Wind: E (100°) @ 131 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 135 mph; Radar Altitude: 9327 ft
Ob #20: 06:50:00Z; **** ****; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: ****; Wind: ESE (103°) @ 127 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 136 mph; Radar Altitude: 9265 ft

[mtm4319]

28.2
89.6
155mph
910mb
N 12mph

[Thunder44]

Statement as of 2:00 am CDT on August 29, 2005



...Potentially catastrophic Hurricane Katrina beginning to turn
northward toward southeastern Louisiana and the northern Gulf
Coast...
...Sustained hurricane-force winds occurring along the
southeastern Louisiana coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the north central Gulf Coast
from Morgan City Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida
border...including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect from
east of the Alabama/Florida border to Destin Florida...and from
west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect from Destin Florida
eastward to Indian Pass Florida...and from Intracoastal City
Louisiana westward to Cameron Louisiana.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 2 am CDT...0700z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was
located near latitude 28.2 north...longitude 89.6 west or about
70 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River
and about 130 miles south-southeast of New Orleans Louisiana.

Katrina is now moving toward the north near 12 mph. This motion is
forecast to continue today with a gradual increase in forward
speed. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later tonight
and on Tuesday. On the forecast track the center of the hurricane
will be very near the northern Gulf Coast later this morning.
However... conditions are gradually deteriorating along portions of
the central and northeastern Gulf Coast...and will continue to
worsen throughout the day.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph with higher gusts.
Katrina is now a strong category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in strength are likely
prior to landfall...but Katrina is expected to make landfall as
either a category four or possibly a category five hurricane.
Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings will be
significantly stronger than those near ground level.

Katrina remains a very large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles. During the past hour...a wind
gust to 83 mph was reported from a University of southern
Mississippi buoy located just east of the Chandeleur Islands...a
gust to 75 mph was reported at Grand Isle Louisiana...and a wind
gust to 60 mph was reported in New Orleans.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft was 910 mb...26.87 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 18 to 22 feet above normal tide
levels...locally as high as 28 feet...along with large and dangerous
battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Some levees in the greater New Orleans area
could be overtopped. Significant storm surge flooding will occur
elsewhere along the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast.
NOAA buoy 42040 located about 50 miles east of the mouth of the
Mississippi River recently reported waves heights of at least 40
feet.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches...are possible along the path of Katrina across the Gulf
Coast and the Tennessee Valley. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches
are possible across the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes
region Tuesday and Wednesday.

The tornado threat ahead of Katrina is increasing and scattered
tornadoes will be possible today over southeastern Louisiana...
southern Mississippi...southern Alabama...and over the Florida
Panhandle tonight.

Repeating the 2 am CDT position...28.2 N... 89.6 W. Movement
toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...155 mph. Minimum central pressure... 910 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Stewart

[senorpepr]

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Observation Number: 17
Time: 0640Z
Latitude: 29.4°N
Longitude: 89.7°W
Location: 27 mi ENE of Grand Isle, Louisana
Turbulence: Light occasional moderate
Flight condition: In & out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 9900 feet
Flight level wind: E (100°) @ 94 mph
Temperature: 50°F
Dewpoint: 50°F
Weather: Rainshowers
700mb height: 9600 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Flt Data Number: 32
Latest Recon Position: 62 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 06:50:30Z; 28.9°N 89.6°W; PA: 9915 ft; D-Value: -787 ft; Wind: ESE (106°) @ 130 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 136 mph; Radar Altitude: 9265 ft
Ob #02: 06:51:00Z; 28.9°N 89.6°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -810 ft; Wind: ESE (106°) @ 108 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 120 mph; Radar Altitude: 9222 ft
Ob #03: 06:51:30Z; 28.9°N 89.6°W; PA: 9885 ft; D-Value: -840 ft; Wind: E (101°) @ 99 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 103 mph; Radar Altitude: 9183 ft
Ob #04: 06:52:00Z; 28.8°N 89.6°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -873 ft; Wind: E (97°) @ 98 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 99 mph; Radar Altitude: 9160 ft
Ob #05: 06:52:30Z; 28.8°N 89.6°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -922 ft; Wind: E (96°) @ 97 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 100 mph; Radar Altitude: 9117 ft
Ob #06: 06:53:00Z; 28.8°N 89.6°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -978 ft; Wind: E (92°) @ 98 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 99 mph; Radar Altitude: 9062 ft
Ob #07: 06:53:30Z; 28.8°N 89.6°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -1033 ft; Wind: E (92°) @ 101 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 104 mph; Radar Altitude: 8999 ft
Ob #08: 06:54:00Z; 28.7°N 89.6°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -1093 ft; Wind: E (91°) @ 106 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 56°F; Max Wind: 107 mph; Radar Altitude: 8940 ft
Ob #09: 06:54:30Z; 28.7°N 89.6°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -1155 ft; Wind: E (88°) @ 111 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 58°F; Max Wind: 112 mph; Radar Altitude: 8891 ft
Ob #10: 06:55:00Z; 28.7°N 89.6°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -1234 ft; Wind: E (85°) @ 113 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 58°F; Max Wind: 114 mph; Radar Altitude: 8802 ft
Ob #11: 06:55:30Z; 28.7°N 89.6°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -1316 ft; Wind: E (85°) @ 116 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 116 mph; Radar Altitude: 8720 ft
Ob #12: 06:56:00Z; 28.6°N 89.6°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -1424 ft; Wind: E (82°) @ 120 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 121 mph; Radar Altitude: 8615 ft
Ob #13: 06:56:30Z; 28.6°N 89.6°W; PA: 9915 ft; D-Value: -1535 ft; Wind: E (81°) @ 120 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 124 mph; Radar Altitude: 8517 ft
Ob #14: 06:57:00Z; 28.6°N 89.6°W; PA: 9888 ft; D-Value: -1680 ft; Wind: ENE (75°) @ 114 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 119 mph; Radar Altitude: 8350 ft
Ob #15: 06:57:30Z; 28.5°N 89.6°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -1808 ft; Wind: ENE (68°) @ 103 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 112 mph; Radar Altitude: 8225 ft
Ob #16: 06:58:00Z; 28.5°N 89.6°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -1906 ft; Wind: ENE (73°) @ 83 mph; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 62°F; Max Wind: 86 mph; Radar Altitude: 8133 ft
Ob #17: 06:58:30Z; 28.5°N 89.6°W; PA: 9911 ft; D-Value: -2001 ft; Wind: ENE (75°) @ 68 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 60°F; Max Wind: 71 mph; Radar Altitude: 8048 ft
Ob #18: 06:59:00Z; 28.5°N 89.6°W; PA: 9888 ft; D-Value: -2077 ft; Wind: ENE (77°) @ 52 mph; Temp: 65°F; Dewpt: 64°F; Max Wind: 58 mph; Radar Altitude: 7949 ft
Ob #19: 06:59:30Z; 28.4°N 89.6°W; PA: 9888 ft; D-Value: -2123 ft; Wind: E (82°) @ 30 mph; Temp: 66°F; Dewpt: 65°F; Max Wind: 37 mph; Radar Altitude: 7907 ft
Ob #20: 07:00:00Z; 28.4°N 89.6°W; PA: 9915 ft; D-Value: -2146 ft; Wind: E (87°) @ 14 mph; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 62°F; Max Wind: 21 mph; Radar Altitude: 7907 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Flt Data Number: 33
Latest Recon Position: 98 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 07:00:30Z; 28.4°N 89.6°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -2162 ft; Wind: SE (125°) @ 2 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 64°F; Max Wind: 7 mph; Radar Altitude: 7871 ft
Ob #02: 07:01:00Z; 28.3°N 89.6°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -2162 ft; Wind: SW (228°) @ 10 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 64°F; Max Wind: 14 mph; Radar Altitude: 7877 ft
Ob #03: 07:01:30Z; 28.3°N 89.6°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -2169 ft; Wind: SW (231°) @ 21 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 63°F; Max Wind: 23 mph; Radar Altitude: 7871 ft
Ob #04: 07:02:00Z; 28.3°N 89.5°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -2156 ft; Wind: SW (225°) @ 29 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 63°F; Max Wind: 31 mph; Radar Altitude: 7884 ft
Ob #05: 07:02:30Z; 28.3°N 89.5°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -2096 ft; Wind: SW (220°) @ 37 mph; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 64°F; Max Wind: 48 mph; Radar Altitude: 7904 ft
Ob #06: 07:03:00Z; 28.3°N 89.5°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -2116 ft; Wind: SW (226°) @ 58 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 63°F; Max Wind: 60 mph; Radar Altitude: 7913 ft
Ob #07: 07:03:30Z; 28.2°N 89.5°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -2087 ft; Wind: SW (225°) @ 67 mph; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 63°F; Max Wind: 75 mph; Radar Altitude: 7949 ft
Ob #08: 07:04:00Z; 28.2°N 89.4°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -2014 ft; Wind: SW (225°) @ 89 mph; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 62°F; Max Wind: 98 mph; Radar Altitude: 8028 ft
Ob #09: 07:04:30Z; 28.2°N 89.4°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -1929 ft; Wind: SW (226°) @ 107 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 60°F; Max Wind: 112 mph; Radar Altitude: 8107 ft
Ob #10: 07:05:00Z; 28.2°N 89.4°W; PA: 9911 ft; D-Value: -1831 ft; Wind: SW (229°) @ 121 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 58°F; Max Wind: 123 mph; Radar Altitude: 8219 ft
Ob #11: 07:05:30Z; 28.2°N 89.4°W; PA: 9918 ft; D-Value: -1719 ft; Wind: SW (234°) @ 131 mph; Temp: 59°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Max Wind: 136 mph; Radar Altitude: 8337 ft
Ob #12: 07:06:00Z; 28.1°N 89.3°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -1591 ft; Wind: SW (231°) @ 146 mph; Temp: 58°F; Dewpt: 58°F; Max Wind: 150 mph; Radar Altitude: 8438 ft
Ob #13: 07:06:30Z; 28.1°N 89.3°W; PA: 9872 ft; D-Value: -1483 ft; Wind: SW (225°) @ 151 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 56°F; Max Wind: 152 mph; Radar Altitude: 8527 ft
Ob #14: 07:07:00Z; 28.1°N 89.3°W; PA: 9918 ft; D-Value: -1391 ft; Wind: SW (221°) @ 145 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 146 mph; Radar Altitude: 8665 ft
Ob #15: 07:07:30Z; 28.1°N 89.3°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -1312 ft; Wind: SW (223°) @ 143 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 144 mph; Radar Altitude: 8717 ft
Ob #16: 07:08:00Z; 28.1°N 89.3°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -1227 ft; Wind: SW (222°) @ 139 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 141 mph; Radar Altitude: 8819 ft
Ob #17: 07:08:30Z; 28.1°N 89.2°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -1155 ft; Wind: SW (221°) @ 137 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 56°F; Max Wind: 138 mph; Radar Altitude: 8878 ft
Ob #18: 07:09:00Z; 28°N 89.2°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -1083 ft; Wind: SW (220°) @ 134 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 136 mph; Radar Altitude: 8960 ft
Ob #19: 07:09:30Z; 28°N 89.2°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -1020 ft; Wind: SW (220°) @ 132 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 132 mph; Radar Altitude: 9009 ft
Ob #20: 07:10:00Z; 28°N 89.2°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -971 ft; Wind: SW (218°) @ 131 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 131 mph; Radar Altitude: 9072 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[Solaris]

0706. 2807N 08919W 03009 5452 225 131 132 132 132 02599 0000000000

SE quadrant again

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Flt Data Number: 34
Latest Recon Position: 129 mi SE of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 07:10:30Z; 28°N 89.2°W; PA: 9911 ft; D-Value: -922 ft; Wind: SW (216°) @ 129 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 56°F; Max Wind: 131 mph; Radar Altitude: 9127 ft
Ob #02: 07:11:00Z; 28°N 89.1°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -876 ft; Wind: SW (217°) @ 127 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 128 mph; Radar Altitude: 9163 ft
Ob #03: 07:11:30Z; 28°N 89.1°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -833 ft; Wind: SW (217°) @ 130 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 131 mph; Radar Altitude: 9206 ft
Ob #04: 07:12:00Z; 27.9°N 89.1°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -801 ft; Wind: SW (216°) @ 131 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 131 mph; Radar Altitude: 9239 ft
Ob #05: 07:12:30Z; 27.9°N 89.1°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -764 ft; Wind: SW (215°) @ 134 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 135 mph; Radar Altitude: 9268 ft
Ob #06: 07:13:00Z; 27.9°N 89.1°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -732 ft; Wind: SW (215°) @ 135 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 135 mph; Radar Altitude: 9311 ft
Ob #07: 07:13:30Z; 27.9°N 89.1°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -702 ft; Wind: SW (215°) @ 130 mph; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; Max Wind: 131 mph; Radar Altitude: 9341 ft
Ob #08: 07:14:00Z; 27.9°N 89°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -673 ft; Wind: SSW (211°) @ 127 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 130 mph; Radar Altitude: 9370 ft
Ob #09: 07:14:30Z; 27.9°N 89°W; PA: 9885 ft; D-Value: -643 ft; Wind: SSW (213°) @ 126 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 130 mph; Radar Altitude: 9383 ft
Ob #10: 07:15:00Z; 27.8°N 89°W; PA: 9931 ft; D-Value: -610 ft; Wind: SW (214°) @ 124 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 129 mph; Radar Altitude: 9462 ft
Ob #11: 07:15:30Z; 27.8°N 89°W; PA: 9875 ft; D-Value: -581 ft; Wind: SW (216°) @ 127 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 129 mph; Radar Altitude: 9436 ft
Ob #12: 07:16:00Z; 27.8°N 89°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -548 ft; Wind: SW (217°) @ 124 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 129 mph; Radar Altitude: 9501 ft
Ob #13: 07:16:30Z; 27.8°N 89°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -522 ft; Wind: SW (218°) @ 127 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 130 mph; Radar Altitude: 9511 ft
Ob #14: 07:17:00Z; 27.8°N 88.9°W; PA: 9885 ft; D-Value: -502 ft; Wind: SW (214°) @ 129 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 131 mph; Radar Altitude: 9524 ft
Ob #15: 07:17:30Z; 27.8°N 88.9°W; PA: 9941 ft; D-Value: -472 ft; Wind: SW (219°) @ 124 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 126 mph; Radar Altitude: 9610 ft
Ob #16: 07:18:00Z; 27.7°N 88.9°W; PA: 9875 ft; D-Value: -449 ft; Wind: SW (214°) @ 118 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 119 mph; Radar Altitude: 9567 ft
Ob #17: 07:18:30Z; 27.7°N 88.9°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -427 ft; Wind: SW (215°) @ 120 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 123 mph; Radar Altitude: 9616 ft
Ob #18: 07:19:00Z; 27.7°N 88.9°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: -404 ft; Wind: SW (214°) @ 121 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 123 mph; Radar Altitude: 9629 ft
Ob #19: 07:19:30Z; 27.7°N 88.8°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -381 ft; Wind: SW (215°) @ 123 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 124 mph; Radar Altitude: 9665 ft
Ob #20: 07:20:00Z; 27.7°N 88.8°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -354 ft; Wind: SW (215°) @ 123 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 123 mph; Radar Altitude: 9692 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[senorpepr]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Observation Number: 18
Time: 07:00:10Z
Latitude: 28.4°N
Longitude: 89.6°W
Location: 64 mi SSE of Grand Isle, Louisana
Minimum height at 700 mb 2352 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Maximum flight level wind: E (95°) @ 141 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 45 mi N (356°)
Sea level pressure: EXTRAP 915 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 48°F at 9934 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 68°F at 9879 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 64°F
Eye character: OPEN SSE-SSW
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 37 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.01 / 1 nm
MAX FL WIND 134KT N QUAD 02:49:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

[MKT2005]

915mb backs up my previous claim of rapid decay

[btangy]

Open wall confirms the radar presentation. There's a big curved band that might wrap around the W side of the storm within the next hour. Outer eyewall is becoming more dominant, but don't think it'll have time to contract before landfall. This just means damaging winds spread over a larger area.

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Flt Data Number: 35
Latest Recon Position: 166 mi SE of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 07:20:30Z; 27.7°N 88.8°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -331 ft; Wind: SW (215°) @ 123 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 123 mph; Radar Altitude: 9708 ft
Ob #02: 07:21:00Z; 27.6°N 88.8°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -305 ft; Wind: SW (216°) @ 121 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 122 mph; Radar Altitude: 9738 ft
Ob #03: 07:21:30Z; 27.6°N 88.8°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -282 ft; Wind: SW (216°) @ 118 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 119 mph; Radar Altitude: 9760 ft
Ob #04: 07:22:00Z; 27.6°N 88.7°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -269 ft; Wind: SW (214°) @ 109 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 112 mph; Radar Altitude: 9777 ft
Ob #05: 07:22:30Z; 27.6°N 88.7°W; PA: 9888 ft; D-Value: -253 ft; Wind: SW (214°) @ 112 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 114 mph; Radar Altitude: 9777 ft
Ob #06: 07:23:00Z; 27.6°N 88.7°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -240 ft; Wind: SSW (212°) @ 111 mph; Temp: 47°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 111 mph; Radar Altitude: 9806 ft
Ob #07: 07:23:30Z; 27.6°N 88.7°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -223 ft; Wind: SW (214°) @ 116 mph; Temp: 46°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 121 mph; Radar Altitude: 9816 ft
Ob #08: 07:24:00Z; 27.5°N 88.7°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: -203 ft; Wind: SW (214°) @ 114 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 115 mph; Radar Altitude: 9846 ft
Ob #09: 07:24:30Z; 27.5°N 88.7°W; PA: 9888 ft; D-Value: -190 ft; Wind: SW (217°) @ 113 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 114 mph; Radar Altitude: 9839 ft
Ob #10: 07:25:00Z; 27.5°N 88.6°W; PA: 9911 ft; D-Value: -180 ft; Wind: SW (217°) @ 108 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 111 mph; Radar Altitude: 9875 ft
Ob #11: 07:25:30Z; 27.5°N 88.6°W; PA: 9888 ft; D-Value: -167 ft; Wind: SW (221°) @ 111 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 113 mph; Radar Altitude: 9862 ft
Ob #12: 07:26:00Z; 27.5°N 88.6°W; PA: 9911 ft; D-Value: -157 ft; Wind: SW (218°) @ 104 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: ****; Max Wind: 109 mph; Radar Altitude: 9898 ft
Ob #13: 07:26:30Z; 27.5°N 88.6°W; PA: 9882 ft; D-Value: -148 ft; Wind: SW (221°) @ 112 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 113 mph; Radar Altitude: 9875 ft
Ob #14: 07:27:00Z; 27.4°N 88.6°W; PA: 9911 ft; D-Value: -131 ft; Wind: SW (221°) @ 111 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 114 mph; Radar Altitude: 9921 ft
Ob #15: 07:27:30Z; 27.4°N 88.5°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -118 ft; Wind: SW (223°) @ 106 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 107 mph; Radar Altitude: 9928 ft
Ob #16: 07:28:00Z; 27.4°N 88.5°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: -102 ft; Wind: SW (221°) @ 98 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 101 mph; Radar Altitude: 9934 ft
Ob #17: 07:28:30Z; 27.4°N 88.5°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -89 ft; Wind: SSW (213°) @ 96 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 96 mph; Radar Altitude: 9954 ft
Ob #18: 07:29:00Z; 27.4°N 88.5°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -79 ft; Wind: SW (214°) @ 97 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 99 mph; Radar Altitude: 9961 ft
Ob #19: 07:29:30Z; 27.3°N 88.5°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: -66 ft; Wind: SW (216°) @ 97 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 98 mph; Radar Altitude: 9980 ft
Ob #20: 07:30:00Z; 27.3°N 88.4°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -52 ft; Wind: SW (219°) @ 98 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 99 mph; Radar Altitude: 9987 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[senorpepr]

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 20
Flight ID: AF305
Flt Data Number: 36
Latest Recon Position: 183 mi SE of Grand Isle, Louisana

Ob #01: 07:30:30Z; 27.3°N 88.4°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: -36 ft; Wind: SW (219°) @ 98 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 99 mph; Radar Altitude: 10007 ft
Ob #02: 07:31:00Z; 27.3°N 88.4°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -23 ft; Wind: SW (214°) @ 93 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 49°F; Max Wind: 99 mph; Radar Altitude: 10016 ft
Ob #03: 07:31:30Z; 27.3°N 88.4°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: -16 ft; Wind: SW (218°) @ 92 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 93 mph; Radar Altitude: 10023 ft
Ob #04: 07:32:00Z; 27.3°N 88.3°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: 0 ft; Wind: SW (219°) @ 91 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 54°F; Max Wind: 92 mph; Radar Altitude: 10039 ft
Ob #05: 07:32:30Z; 27.2°N 88.3°W; PA: 9908 ft; D-Value: 13 ft; Wind: SW (219°) @ 90 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 53°F; Max Wind: 92 mph; Radar Altitude: 10066 ft
Ob #06: 07:33:00Z; 27.2°N 88.3°W; PA: 9892 ft; D-Value: 26 ft; Wind: SW (217°) @ 86 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 89 mph; Radar Altitude: 10062 ft
Ob #07: 07:33:30Z; 27.2°N 88.3°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: 36 ft; Wind: SW (216°) @ 86 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 86 mph; Radar Altitude: 10079 ft
Ob #08: 07:34:00Z; 27.2°N 88.3°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: 43 ft; Wind: SW (216°) @ 85 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 50°F; Max Wind: 86 mph; Radar Altitude: 10085 ft
Ob #09: 07:34:30Z; 27.2°N 88.2°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: 56 ft; Wind: SW (214°) @ 84 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 84 mph; Radar Altitude: 10102 ft
Ob #10: 07:35:00Z; 27.1°N 88.2°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: 66 ft; Wind: SSW (212°) @ 84 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 84 mph; Radar Altitude: 10108 ft
Ob #11: 07:35:30Z; 27.1°N 88.2°W; PA: 9895 ft; D-Value: 72 ft; Wind: SSW (212°) @ 83 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 84 mph; Radar Altitude: 10112 ft
Ob #12: 07:36:00Z; 27.1°N 88.2°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: 82 ft; Wind: SSW (212°) @ 83 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 83 mph; Radar Altitude: 10128 ft
Ob #13: 07:36:30Z; 27.1°N 88.2°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: 89 ft; Wind: SSW (213°) @ 83 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 83 mph; Radar Altitude: 10128 ft
Ob #14: 07:37:00Z; 27.1°N 88.1°W; PA: 9902 ft; D-Value: 105 ft; Wind: SSW (213°) @ 83 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 83 mph; Radar Altitude: 10148 ft
Ob #15: 07:37:30Z; 27.1°N 88.1°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: 125 ft; Wind: SSW (209°) @ 83 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 84 mph; Radar Altitude: 10167 ft
Ob #16: 07:38:00Z; 27.1°N 88.1°W; PA: 9921 ft; D-Value: 125 ft; Wind: SSW (206°) @ 83 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 84 mph; Radar Altitude: 10187 ft
Ob #17: 07:38:30Z; 27.1°N 88.1°W; PA: 9882 ft; D-Value: 95 ft; Wind: SSW (206°) @ 81 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 82 mph; Radar Altitude: 10118 ft
Ob #18: 07:39:00Z; 27.2°N 88.1°W; PA: 9905 ft; D-Value: 82 ft; Wind: SSW (206°) @ 84 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 85 mph; Radar Altitude: 10131 ft
Ob #19: 07:39:30Z; 27.2°N 88.1°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: 75 ft; Wind: SSW (204°) @ 84 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 52°F; Max Wind: 85 mph; Radar Altitude: 10115 ft
Ob #20: 07:40:00Z; 27.2°N 88.1°W; PA: 9898 ft; D-Value: 66 ft; Wind: SSW (204°) @ 84 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 51°F; Max Wind: 84 mph; Radar Altitude: 10108 ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect

[Solaris]

according to latest radar:
inner eye-wall and west side of storm recovering.