Why are they saying NO might not flood?

[arcticfire]

My question is this , it was my understanding a direct S-N hit on the NOLA metro area was not the real threat. The real threat was it passing just south and then east of NO. Because after it passes NOLA latitude then the wind would come from the N->S and push the water from the lake twords the city? But I'm hearing on some of the news channels them thinking NOLA might be spared the worst case scenario , yet from what I can see the track is the worst case scenario. Anyone confirm or correct my understanding ?

[TPACane04]

You are thinking right...the N or NE winds which NOLA are getting could push Lake Ponch up and over the south levees, leading to the "filling of the bowl" scenario.

I would say alot more will be known on this next two hours, the radar image for NO is pretty disturbing.

[x-y-no]

You're correct, but the hope apparently is that the storm has weakened enough and the storm is passing far enough east (about 25 to 30 mile, it appears to me) that the storm surge won't be so high.

Winds there are shifting round to the north and soon slightly west of north, so the next hour or two will tell the tale.

[oneness]

The radar picture looks dreadful over the lake and NO north shore.

[flnative]

WDSU TV NO just reported 7 ft of water in the first floor of E. Jefferson Hospital on S shore of Lake P in NO. Also reported other breachs. Not confirmed felt pretty good about source.

[Innotech]

my mothers aunt's house in Arabi is veryl ikely completely flooded.