Tropical storm Test

nequad · #1 Postby **nequad** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:10 pm

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM TEST (AL882005) ON 20050830 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050830 1800 050831 0600 050831 1800 050901 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.9N 19.9W 9.5N 23.2W 8.9N 26.7W 7.9N 30.1W
BAMM 9.9N 19.9W 9.3N 22.9W 8.5N 25.8W 7.7N 28.4W
A98E 9.9N 19.9W 10.2N 22.3W 10.4N 25.0W 10.1N 27.7W
LBAR 9.9N 19.9W 9.5N 22.7W 9.4N 25.9W 9.2N 29.4W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 41KTS 42KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 41KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050901 1800 050902 1800 050903 1800 050904 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 6.9N 33.2W 5.9N 36.8W 7.0N 38.4W 9.4N 39.6W
BAMM 7.2N 30.7W 8.4N 33.1W 12.1N 34.8W 17.0N 38.7W
A98E 9.2N 30.4W 7.9N 34.8W 7.3N 38.6W 7.6N 41.6W
LBAR 8.9N 33.0W 8.8N 39.1W 8.3N 42.9W 8.1N 43.6W
SHIP 45KTS 53KTS 59KTS 67KTS
DSHP 45KTS 53KTS 59KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.9N LONCUR = 19.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 17.7W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 14.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 110NM RD34SW = 70NM RD34NW = 80NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

Indeed there is a well organized low pressure just off the west coast of Africa south of 10N. This will be a long tracker. Both the GFS and UKMET pick up on this disturbance.

Website · #2 Postby **Brent** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:12 pm

That's far to the south...

GalvestonDuck · #3 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:13 pm

It's a test message....right? Just a test.

nequad · #4 Postby **nequad** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:14 pm

Well...it says it's a test. But satellite imagery reveals what appears to be an actuall low pressure forming near 9N 18W.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

scostorms · #5 Postby **scostorms** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:15 pm

What does all this mean? Should I be getting worried? Do we have Tropical Storm Lee?

HurriCat · #6 Postby **HurriCat** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:16 pm

And what purpose does this "test" serve? Isn't there another place on '2K for "testing"?

nequad · #7 Postby **nequad** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:17 pm

I don't know if this will be classified today(I doubt it) but like I said...both the GFS and UKMET pick up on this disturbance and develop it into a strong cyclone during the next few days.

No need to be worried...it's a loooooooooooonnnnnnnnnggggggggggg ways away from anyone.

Recurve · #8 Postby **Recurve** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:17 pm

Very very far away still. Something to watch, but 2000 miles to go before it threatens land.

nequad · #9 Postby **nequad** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:19 pm

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 8.7N 20.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 31.08.2005 8.7N 20.4W WEAK

00UTC 01.09.2005 11.0N 23.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.09.2005 9.7N 26.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.09.2005 10.2N 29.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.09.2005 10.6N 32.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2005 11.7N 33.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.09.2005 11.1N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.09.2005 11.5N 37.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.09.2005 12.3N 40.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.09.2005 12.4N 42.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.09.2005 13.0N 44.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

Check that....the UKMET does not make it a "strong cyclone" in the next few days. But it does develop it. The GFS is ramping it up in a few days to a strong cyclone.

GalvestonDuck · #10 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:19 pm

nequad wrote:Well...it says it's a test. But satellite imagery reveals what appears to be an actuall low pressure forming near 9N 18W.

Thanks for clarifying.

Website · #11 Postby **Brent** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:21 pm

It IS a test... but Lee appears to be on the way.

Welcome to the end of August/September!

ChaserUK · #12 Postby **ChaserUK** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:22 pm

am I missing something here? A test message is just a test. A bit of a coincidence that something is actually in that area - is this being done so not to alarm people?

nequad · #13 Postby **nequad** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:22 pm

you're welcome Galveston.

BTW...for those that don't know...the above is not a forecast, it is the text model data from the UKMET model.

I don't want anyone getting confused!

Website · #14 Postby **Brent** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:23 pm

ChaserUK wrote:am I missing something here? A test message is just a test. A bit of a coincidence that something is actually in that area - is this being done so not to alarm people?

It's only viewable to people like us anyway... :lol:

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:24 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 91#1033391

I made a thread about this system earlier but maybe you didn't see it.

nequad · #16 Postby **nequad** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:27 pm

I did look cycloneye...but didn't see one. The front page..as you know...is mostly filled with the Katrina aftermath. (and rightly so I might add...but I must remind everyone we are still in the mist of an active season and we are approaching the peak quickly)

ChaserUK · #17 Postby **ChaserUK** » Tue Aug 30, 2005 2:32 pm

Brent wrote:
ChaserUK wrote:am I missing something here? A test message is just a test. A bit of a coincidence that something is actually in that area - is this being done so not to alarm people?

It's only viewable to people like us anyway...

Well that is certainly just as well I think under the circumstances.

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