Was Katrina Underestimated?

[jasons2k]

Saw something yesterday that like in Florida, it appears the highest winds in Katrina may have been in the SE (not NE) quadrant.

Do we get recon from that quadrant? I'm just wondering b/c the pressures were slow low if the winds were actually higher than the advisories stated.

I know a 'true' Cat. 3/Cat. 4 is horrific, but some of these comparisons to Camille make me wonder if Katrina was stronger than intially reported (like Andrew).

[cjrciadt]

You posted those awesome radar shot of her during her entire lifespan. She organized while impacting S. MS and AL. I believe her winds at her peak over the GOM were maybe underestimated though it is too early to know.

[Courtnay Mccullers]

Saw something yesterday that like in Florida, it appears the highest winds in Katrina may have been in the SE (not NE) quadrant.

Do we get recon from that quadrant? I'm just wondering b/c the pressures were slow low if the winds were actually higher than the advisories stated.

I know a 'true' Cat. 3/Cat. 4 is horrific, but some of these comparisons to Camille make me wonder if Katrina was stronger than intially reported (like Andrew).

doubt it. the storm was no doubt weakening as it came in. the strongest winds were in the NE quadrant. the southern half of the storm was virtually nonexistant by the time it got to the MS coast.

[djtil]

yes, all quadrants are/were measured several times right up to landfall.....this just shows how strong a high cat3/cat4 storm is and how vulnerable new orleans is.

had she come 30 miles west instead of the 9th ward being roof high the entire city would be.

i dont doubt "the wall" will be built now that the theoretical flood models appear to be legit.

[cancunkid]

I may be wrong but I think that the SS scale just takes pressure and wind into deciding the catagory of the hurricane. Correct me if that is wrong. A lot of the damage from Katrina will have been from surge and flooding.

[Florida_brit]

No it wasn't underestimated but what was underestimated was the fact that Katrina had so much water attached to it...more than in an normal hurricane.

[djtil]

the SS scale is wind only, not pressure.

the surge (especially in miss.) has a "memory" of the previous strength of the storm however as the water pushed by the previously stronger winds makes the surge worse.

[jasons2k]

yes, all quadrants are/were measured several times right up to landfall.....this just shows how strong a high cat3/cat4 storm is and how vulnerable new orleans is.

had she come 30 miles west instead of the 9th ward being roof high the entire city would be.

i dont doubt "the wall" will be built now that the theoretical flood models appear to be legit.

Unfortuantely it now appears like it may end up being the entire city as the waters continue to rise.

[NastyCat4]

Doesn't matter how strong a major cane is---a disaster is a disaster, period. My heart goes out to the people of New Orleans, Mississippi, Alabama, and the entire Gulf area. Debating how powerful it was is like asking a condemned man if he wishes to be hung or shot. This is clearly one of the worst natural disasters in the history of the US.

[jasons2k]

Doesn't matter how strong a major cane is---a disaster is a disaster, period. My heart goes out to the people of New Orleans, Mississippi, Alabama, and the entire Gulf area. Debating how powerful it was is like asking a condemned man if he wishes to be hung or shot. This is clearly one of the worst natural disasters in the history of the US.

I agree with you, but don't forget the more we learn from this one, the better prepared we will be (hopefully) from the next one.

[ChaserUK]

crazy thought here but I throw it out in here anyway. With such warm water in the GOM and the fact warm water is more expanded than cold water, is it more affected by the action of the wind?

[djtil]

um.no.

[senorpepr]

First, about recon, I was monitoring all the flights as Katrina was making landfall. This hurricane was probably one of the most monitored hurricanes ever during those final hours. As she neared land, four seperate aircrafts were taking turns crossing her eye while monitoring the winds in every quadrant of the storm. At landfall, her northern side was the strongest in terms of wind.

As for the Saffir-Simpson scale, although we usually focus only on the wind, the original scale focuses not only on wind, but pressure and storm surge. The scale was intended to be similar to the Fujita scale, where the category was based upon the aftermath. However, it's more practical to base it off of wind speeds.

[ericinmia]

Something you all must also understand.

The ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEER'S have been saying for years that even a weak cat 2 or strong cat 1 could topple the levee's if it approached at the proper angles.

Thus there is no reason to believe that this was unpredicted, and that no one knew that the levee's would fail in a cat 4.
-Eric

[Ripopgodazippa]

As far as damage goes, Katrina makes Andrew look like an afternoon thundershower... No comparison...

[wxmann_91]

Katrina was definately underestimated.

[ericinmia]

Katrina was definately underestimated.

By the people, and emergency mgmt... yes! But by weather standards... NO.

People really have no clue what wind and water levels can do. People didn't publicly know that a 100mph hurricane could have done almost this exact same levee problem! (per Army corps of engineers)

This storm had more recon flying through it than any previous storm. There is definiative data on it.

People simply don't don't respect mother nature.


I equate it to this... I have a weather station at home, and will tell a neighbor a few houses over that we got 54mph winds. He then tells me that he was getting 90+ with incredible gusts above that. I tell him that its practically impossible, but he and others just don't understand.
People just have no idea of relative and eye based measurements.
It makes me soo frustrated sometimes.

Plus his house is shielded by other houses, mine is exposed on a lake which the wind was coming off of in the western section of katrina's eye wall.
-Eric