Invest 92L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 8:29 am

THis is the one some models are jumping already.

#2 Postby **cjrciadt** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 8:31 am

Just full of good news today, its still not even Sept!!

Aquawind · #3 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 8:31 am

Fine be that way.. your relentless..lol

Wish we could just change the subject so easy..we may be forced to.. like it or not of course..

Paul

canegrl04 · #4 Postby **canegrl04** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 8:34 am

A low lattitude system.This could either enter the GOM or crash into Mexico

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 8:35 am

Aquawind wrote:Fine be that way.. your relentless..lol

Wish we could just change the subject so easy..we may be forced to.. like it or not of course..

Paul

That is that we need a new forum apart from the Katrina situation.

beachbum_al · #6 Postby **beachbum_al** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 8:35 am

I think I have had my share of hurricanes this year. :cry:

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 8:37 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050831 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050831 1200 050901 0000 050901 1200 050902 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.1N 22.5W 8.0N 25.0W 7.9N 27.4W 8.1N 29.5W
BAMM 8.1N 22.5W 8.0N 24.6W 7.9N 26.8W 8.3N 28.8W
A98E 8.1N 22.5W 7.3N 25.5W 7.0N 28.5W 6.8N 31.4W
LBAR 8.1N 22.5W 7.6N 25.3W 7.4N 28.1W 7.7N 31.1W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 25KTS 31KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 25KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050902 1200 050903 1200 050904 1200 050905 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.7N 31.4W 10.6N 34.6W 12.9N 38.1W 15.4N 42.5W
BAMM 9.1N 30.8W 11.1N 34.9W 12.9N 40.2W 14.3N 46.2W
A98E 6.6N 33.8W 7.1N 38.2W 7.8N 42.5W 9.0N 46.4W
LBAR 8.4N 34.0W 10.2N 39.7W 11.0N 45.0W 13.1N 47.4W
SHIP 41KTS 59KTS 71KTS 82KTS
DSHP 41KTS 59KTS 71KTS 82KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.1N LONCUR = 22.5W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 8.9N LONM12 = 19.5W DIRM12 = 247DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 17.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Wow very low latitud.THis one looks like a good candidate for a CV longtracker.

McDowell Boricua · #8 Postby **McDowell Boricua** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 8:47 am

Cyc:

Do you think we have to pay close attention to this one in the caribbean, ETA looks at the end of next week. :eek:

x-y-no · #9 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 8:47 am

13 is a fish, and the one at 15N 39W also looks likely to be a fish (not absolutely sure of that yet,) but this one has prospects of making it across, maybe into the Caribbean.

Also worth watching as a possibilty - several of the globals hint at some kind of development in the Bahamas in 6 days or so. Very weak so far, so nothing to panic over.

Steve H. · #10 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 8:48 am

91L is also turning its head toward the west Luis, which is to the WNW of the NEW INVEST, not to be confused with 13L. :eek:

#11 Postby **wx247** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 8:55 am

Not another one. :eek:

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 8:59 am

x-y-no wrote:13 is a fish, and the one at 15N 39W also looks likely to be a fish (not absolutely sure of that yet,) but this one has prospects of making it across, maybe into the Caribbean.

Also worth watching as a possibilty - several of the globals hint at some kind of development in the Bahamas in 6 days or so. Very weak so far, so nothing to panic over.

The big question about the future track of this system is how the Azores and Bermuda highs will be next week.That factor will be important to see if it will be a fish or will threat the Lesser Antilles.

#13 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 9:07 am

This one is fairly far south already. I expect this one to track more west than the previous waves and possibly threaten the Lesser Antilles down the road.

Watch out Luis

x-y-no · #14 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 9:09 am

cycloneye wrote:
x-y-no wrote:13 is a fish, and the one at 15N 39W also looks likely to be a fish (not absolutely sure of that yet,) but this one has prospects of making it across, maybe into the Caribbean.

Also worth watching as a possibilty - several of the globals hint at some kind of development in the Bahamas in 6 days or so. Very weak so far, so nothing to panic over.

The big question about the future track of this system is how the Azores and Bermuda highs will be next week.That factor will be important to see if it will be a fish or will threat the Lesser Antilles.

Yes, and the globals are not in terribly good agreement about that just now. I think it may be two or three days before we have a solid idea.

#15 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 9:10 am

anybody have any graphical models on this yet? I suspect a W to WNW track through 5 days on these runs.

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 9:13 am

#17 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 9:14 am

Some good convection already:

Mathias · #18 Postby **Mathias** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 9:20 am

Where is SAL and MJO when we need them? :grr:

#19 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 9:29 am

its September what do you expect ...

jabber · #20 Postby **jabber** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 10:02 am

Interesting tidbit from TD13 discussion today... wonder if this building high will allow this to move more west

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 11
KNOTS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE POORLY DEFINED
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD TURN MORE TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A BUILDING HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TRACK IS IN
BETWEEN THE GFDL AND CLIMATOLOGY.

Invest 92L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Invest 92L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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