Invest 92L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#21 Postby **EDR1222** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 10:03 am

This one looks like it far enough south to avoid the trough to the north for now. It will be interesting to see how the high pressure system sets up after TD-13 pulls up and out of the picture.

jj_frap · #22 Postby **jj_frap** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 10:11 am

SWIM DAMN YOU!!!!

DON'T HURT PEOPLE!!!

#23 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 10:39 am

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS RE-INITIATED ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDAS AND THE
AZORES.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES CONTINUES REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT33 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3 AND
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

FORECASTER AVILA

I am surprised that Avila didn't include in the 11:30 AM TWO the wave Southsouthwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Rashid · #24 Postby **Rashid** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 12:06 pm

the deal maker with this storm will be the pace of development. if it spins up quickly (not likely IMO), then it'll turn more NWward well east of the islands - if it takes time to organize, look out northern Leeward islands and PR, etc.

by the middle of next week, the ridge will be positioned to make this a landfalling storm. let's just hope it has plowed too far north by then.

#25 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 12:21 pm

Rashid wrote:the deal maker with this storm will be the pace of development. if it spins up quickly (not likely IMO), then it'll turn more NWward well east of the islands - if it takes time to organize, look out northern Leeward islands and PR, etc.

by the middle of next week, the ridge will be positioned to make this a landfalling storm. let's just hope it has plowed too far north by then.

Agree on that.It all depends on how fast it develops and how the ridges will be strong or not to then be worried here in the NE Caribbean.

HurriCat · #26 Postby **HurriCat** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 12:30 pm

jj_frap wrote:SWIM DAMN YOU!!!!

DON'T HURT PEOPLE!!!

HeeHeeHee

Man, I needed that. Good one!

#27 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 12:34 pm

TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 9.6N 23.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 31.08.2005 9.6N 23.4W WEAK

00UTC 01.09.2005 9.0N 26.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.09.2005 8.9N 29.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.09.2005 9.6N 30.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.09.2005 9.3N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2005 9.7N 36.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.09.2005 10.4N 39.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.09.2005 11.2N 41.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.09.2005 11.5N 44.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.09.2005 12.3N 47.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.09.2005 13.7N 49.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.09.2005 14.7N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.09.2005 15.6N 53.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12z UKMET.

no advance · #28 Postby **no advance** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 12:36 pm

Problem is the trend is they dont develop this year that far out. Herbert Box looks like a good target to me on this one.

#29 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 12:37 pm

Graphic of the 12z UKMET.

#30 Postby **Canelaw99** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 12:38 pm

no advance wrote:Problem is the trend is they dont develop this year that far out. Herbert Box looks like a good target to me on this one.

Hush! LOL The stats aren't good for S. FL when they hit the Herbert Box.

#31 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 12:39 pm

12z GFS.Well it looks like the models are not going fish with 92L.

#32 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 12:40 pm

here we go (again) :eek:

#33 Postby **cjrciadt** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 12:40 pm

Please tell this wont be the "Ivan" of 2005. Formed almost one year ago at the low position in the Atlantic Basin.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200409.asp

#34 Postby **Canelaw99** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 12:40 pm

Luis - keep us posted, and keep your head up on this one. We just got back from PR, and I'd hate to see that one head your way.

#35 Postby **MBismyPlayground** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 12:42 pm

OMG it is happening again.......Blonde moment attack!!
Which blue blob is which??? 92L vs whatever else?

#36 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 12:44 pm

it's the one over the Virgin Islands in that pic...

#37 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 12:46 pm

MBismyPlayground wrote:OMG it is happening again.......Blonde moment attack!!
Which blue blob is which??? 92L vs whatever else?

In graphic that I posted 92L is the blue and pink area just in the Lesser Antilles.You can see the pressure down to 1004 mbs.

#38 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 12:47 pm

Luis, maybe we make this thread a sticky soon...I have a feeling this invest will be a long tracker. Plus it will grab more attention being farther at the top.

#39 Postby **MBismyPlayground** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 1:03 pm

Thanks ya'll.........I thought that was what is was but.......There are so many areas........just a very busy busy map.

#40 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 1:04 pm

any new models out for this 92L? How about any forecasts about a ridge that is expected to build in next week across the northern atlantic?

Invest 92L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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