Tropical Storm Maria,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#82 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 2:42 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20050831 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050831 1800 050901 0600 050901 1800 050902 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.1N 41.6W 18.9N 44.1W 20.4N 46.3W 21.6N 48.2W
BAMM 17.1N 41.6W 18.8N 44.1W 20.2N 46.0W 21.4N 47.6W
A98E 17.1N 41.6W 18.8N 44.2W 20.3N 46.4W 21.4N 48.5W
LBAR 17.1N 41.6W 18.8N 43.8W 20.4N 45.9W 21.6N 47.8W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050902 1800 050903 1800 050904 1800 050905 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.4N 50.0W 23.9N 53.1W 25.9N 55.8W 27.5N 57.5W
BAMM 22.4N 49.3W 24.2N 52.4W 26.7N 55.2W 29.0N 57.1W
A98E 22.3N 50.5W 24.4N 54.3W 27.0N 57.9W 30.5N 60.5W
LBAR 22.8N 49.2W 25.3N 51.0W 27.1N 51.9W 27.1N 53.5W
SHIP 49KTS 64KTS 73KTS 76KTS
DSHP 49KTS 64KTS 73KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.1N LONCUR = 41.6W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 15.3N LONM12 = 38.9W DIRM12 = 324DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 37.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#83 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 3:48 pm

does this not look like a tropical depression or what? I don't understand what they are waiting on this one....

dwg71 · #84 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 3:50 pm

One image can be decieving, you need to look at the entire loop. NHC will make categorize it as a depression when it meets the criteria.

krysof · #85 Postby **krysof** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 3:51 pm

They named Lee because it is no threat to land, but if a storm has the potential threat to land then they wait a while giving what's happened, Just my 2 cents.

#86 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 3:51 pm

dwg71 wrote:One image can be decieving, you need to look at the entire loop. NHC will make categorize it as a depression when it meets the criteria.

yes I know that I was just posting a picture not stating that i was angry that it was not a tropical depression.

dwg71 · #87 Postby **dwg71** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 3:54 pm

southfloridawx2005 wrote:
dwg71 wrote:One image can be decieving, you need to look at the entire loop. NHC will make categorize it as a depression when it meets the criteria.

yes I know that I was just posting a picture not stating that i was angry that it was not a tropical depression.

I'm sorry, I took "does this not look like a tropical depression or what? I don't understand what they are waiting on this one....", to mean you thought they should have upgraded it to a depression and could not understand why not.

Sorry, I read too much into your words :roll:

#88 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 3:57 pm

dwg71 wrote:
southfloridawx2005 wrote:
dwg71 wrote:One image can be decieving, you need to look at the entire loop. NHC will make categorize it as a depression when it meets the criteria.

yes I know that I was just posting a picture not stating that i was angry that it was not a tropical depression.

I'm sorry, I took "does this not look like a tropical depression or what? I don't understand what they are waiting on this one....", to mean you thought they should have upgraded it to a depression and could not understand why not.

Sorry, I read too much into your words

ok thanks for your analysis of my post... :roll:

#89 Postby **Cookiely** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 4:02 pm

Given the circumstances they will wait as long as possible before upgrading.

#90 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 4:09 pm

dwg71 wrote:
southfloridawx2005 wrote:
dwg71 wrote:One image can be decieving, you need to look at the entire loop. NHC will make categorize it as a depression when it meets the criteria.

yes I know that I was just posting a picture not stating that i was angry that it was not a tropical depression.

I'm sorry, I took "does this not look like a tropical depression or what? I don't understand what they are waiting on this one....", to mean you thought they should have upgraded it to a depression and could not understand why not.

Sorry, I read too much into your words

dwg71 you were right....

A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE QUITE ENOUGH
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...BUT COULD BECOME ONE AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD.

#91 Postby **Buck** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 6:07 pm

Convection has really been building around the center in the past few hours. We might have TD14 by tomorrow morning.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #92 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 6:40 pm

It looks way more organized then Lee. It has a well defined tight LLC with convection building over it. I expect a upgrade to tropical storm.

#93 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 7:20 pm

Question:

With the ridge building in the northern Atlantic that has dramatically adjusted Lee's track more NNW instead of NE, could this mean that this invest will track more westerly?

#94 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 7:23 pm

31/2345 UTC 17.4N 42.8W T2.0/2.0 91 -- Atlantic Ocean

Based on the SSD dvorak sat estimates we will have TD14 at 11 PM.But I prefer to wait for the models which will tell the real story.

Nimbus · #95 Postby **Nimbus** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 7:34 pm

The general rule is if the area stays weak it will track further west.

This area has gained convection and does look like a TD in the last few visibles.

Have to wait and see what the models do with it, since it appears to be developing it should turn north sooner.

#96 Postby **P.K.** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 7:38 pm

Midnight guidance:

WHXX01 KWBC 010031
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20050901 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050901 0000 050901 1200 050902 0000 050902 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.4N 42.8W 19.1N 45.2W 20.5N 47.2W 21.7N 49.2W
BAMM 17.4N 42.8W 19.0N 45.1W 20.4N 46.8W 21.6N 48.5W
A98E 17.4N 42.8W 18.1N 45.3W 19.1N 47.6W 20.3N 49.5W
LBAR 17.4N 42.8W 18.7N 45.1W 19.9N 47.1W 21.2N 49.1W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050903 0000 050904 0000 050905 0000 050906 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.8N 50.9W 24.7N 53.8W 26.7N 56.3W 28.2N 58.0W
BAMM 22.8N 50.1W 25.1N 52.8W 27.7N 55.1W 29.9N 56.6W
A98E 21.6N 51.5W 24.3N 55.6W 27.5N 59.2W 32.4N 60.1W
LBAR 22.2N 50.8W 24.9N 53.0W 27.5N 54.0W 28.1N 55.2W
SHIP 50KTS 65KTS 72KTS 74KTS
DSHP 50KTS 65KTS 72KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.4N LONCUR = 42.8W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 40.1W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 38.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#97 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 7:39 pm

#98 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 7:40 pm

would a mod. please delete that sorry wrong one.....

#99 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 7:40 pm

apocalypt-flyer · #100 Postby **apocalypt-flyer** » Wed Aug 31, 2005 7:44 pm

I'm very unsure whether this will be a potential threat for the East Coast.

Tropical Storm Maria,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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