Invest 92L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Canelaw99]

Gracias, Luis - good, quick work as always

[PuertoRicoLibre]

Luis, I just saw a 12 model run output. It seems to be a little to the south of the earlier run's 144h position (which you showed us), which increases the threat to the neighborhood.

[krysof]

I really hope it doesn't go that way again. Florida, and the GOM may be in trouble again, and the EC, the Carolinas have to watch this one carefully as well.

[gatorcane]

The ridge is starting to build in the North Atlantic...the NHC 5pm discussion drastically changed Lee's forecasted path due to the increasing ridge. This ridge will be a major player for invest 92L down the road:

LEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS
AROUND A MID-TO UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST.
THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK WHICH KEPT THE CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH
NORTHEAST. THIS CHANGE IS BASED ON THE LASTEST RUN OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE GFDL WHICH TAKE A LOW PRESSURE AREA...OR THE MODEL
REPRESENTATION OF TROPICAL STORM LEE...AROUND THE LARGER UPPER-LOW
AND A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. ANY
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW.

[SouthFloridawx]

[Scorpion]

GOM storm. Another deathicane coming to the Gulf Coast.

[krysof]

if it has to impact the U.S don't let it be the gulf coast

[gatorcane]

it could easily be an East coast U.S threat at this point also.

[Scorpion]

it could easily be an East coast U.S threat at this point also.

Lets hope so. The GOM is closed.

[SouthFloridawx]

it could easily be an East coast U.S threat at this point also.

Lets hope so. The GOM is closed.

LOL i know it's not funny but, it sounded funny... the GOM is closed United States is now closing off the GOM from the rest of the world...

[gatorcane]

I hope not South Florida

[Foladar]

I hope not South Florida

I second this. I just bought food again since the last hurricane spoiled all of it and I don't want another

[Scorpion]

3 major hurricane hits to the GOM and its not even September. At this rate we'll have 5 this year.

[gatorcane]

3 major hurricane hits to the GOM and its not even September. At this rate we'll have 5 this year.

Actually I would say if another couple form they will impact the South Florida or the SE coast of the U.S...mother nature always has a way of balancing things out.

[Rashid]

any cyclone passing over Katrina's path will surely suffer the effects of relatively cool SSTs - at least there is something good.

I wouldn't be too sure about a GOM storm with 92 yet. Chances are still higher that this thing will threaten the east coast or Mexico. In other words, it'll be a worm-burner or high-flyer. Still too dang early to say so don't get your undies in a bunch yet...

[gatorcane]

any cyclone passing over Katrina's path will surely suffer the effects of relatively cool SSTs - at least there is something good

No, the SST is the GOM cooled some but are already rebounding into the high 80s....

There is another thread that discusses this: "GOM SSTs"
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=72961

[JamesFromMaine2]

I saw a map of the SSTs in the gulf right now and from what I can see they haven't cooled off at all! they are still 30 to 32 degrees C!

[gatorcane]

First mention of 92L invest by the NHC

000
ABNT20 KNHC 312103
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM LEE...LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA.

A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE QUITE ENOUGH
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...BUT COULD BECOME ONE AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM LEE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT33 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3 AND
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$

[cycloneye]

SAT Imagery


Above is a panoramic view of 92L but also 91L and TS Lee.Also you can see what is in the pipe inside Africa.

[WeatherEmperor]

SAT Imagery


Above is a panoramic view of 92L but also 91L and TS Lee.Also you can see what is in the pipe inside Africa.

looks impressive. 92L looks small at the moment but could become interesting in the next couple of days.

<RICKY>