Will 92L Cape Verde Invest Be a U.S. Threat?

[gatorcane]

It's the system near 40W. Latest models bring it west into or near the Lesser Antilles as a MAJOR CAT4 or CAT 5 hurricane

Latest Model Runs:


Infrared Image of 92L Invest:

[Buck]

It's too early to tell... but there is a good chance it will affect the US.

[gatorcane]

I added a link to the 144 Hr GFS showing 92L invest approaching the Lesser Antilles:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2005083106&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

[seaswing]

I just pray that the areas affected by Katrina are not affected again. But as we all know, it is very possible..... Mother Nature has no bias and it is very reasonable to think that it could happen again, maybe not as strong or as violent but anything that landed in that area would only destory what little is left. And then there is Florida.... we could see it happen as well.

[gilbert88]

Too early to tell... I'm thinking fish but who knows?

[EDR1222]

Still to early to tell. Lets see how the model runs change over the next few days. We are definately at the right time of year to see a long tracking Cape Verde system.

[Patrick99]

I say too early to tell - but it certainly wouldn't be surprising to see one of these systems score a hit.

An intense hit in the wake of this one would be impossibly devastating. Can you imagine another major hit on a major city? As for effects on the country as a whole, it'd be much worse than a terrorist attack, IMO.

[gatorcane]

say too early to tell - but it certainly wouldn't be surprising to see one of these systems score a hit.

An intense hit in the wake of this one would be impossibly devastating. Can you imagine another major hit on a major city? As for effects on the country as a whole, it'd be much worse than a terrorist attack, IMO.

If this were to happen, expect a major negative economic impact on this country.

[Coredesat]

Too early to tell.

[gatorcane]

just posted latest model runs.

[Brent]

Too early to tell but my feeling is yes... and it'll be a bad one(again).

[Patrick99]

say too early to tell - but it certainly wouldn't be surprising to see one of these systems score a hit.

An intense hit in the wake of this one would be impossibly devastating. Can you imagine another major hit on a major city? As for effects on the country as a whole, it'd be much worse than a terrorist attack, IMO.

If this were to happen, expect a major negative economic impact on this country.

Take a look at the 1947 historical tracks - there's a bone chilling scenario lurking in there.

Unrelated...but man, there were a ton of intense landfalls in the 1940s.

[JamesFromMaine2]

I think its to early to tell where this is going I just hope and pray that it stays away from the Gulf Coast!

[gatorcane]

the line at the top is 91L not 92L..

[Mesohunter]

it's still way too early to tell

[gatorcane]

The ridge is starting to build in the North Atlantic...This is from the NHC 5pm discussion on Lee showing this:

LEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS
AROUND A MID-TO UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST.
THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK WHICH KEPT THE CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH
NORTHEAST. THIS CHANGE IS BASED ON THE LASTEST RUN OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE GFDL WHICH TAKE A LOW PRESSURE AREA...OR THE MODEL
REPRESENTATION OF TROPICAL STORM LEE...AROUND THE LARGER UPPER-LOW
AND A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. ANY
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW.

[NastyCat4]

Speculating about another major disaster for the US is irresponsible at this point. The intelligent thing is to track it carefully, and NOT SENSATIONALIZE. People are traumatized sufficently, and all they need now is information, not opinions. If it comes to the point that this storm is an issue, alerts will be made, and I can assure you that they will be taken very seriously. Any further attempt to make this into something horriffic is not acting intelligently at this point.

[Weatherboy1]

Best as I can tell, it will likely form into a TD in the next 24-36 hours and head W or WNW roughly for the next few days. At that point, it may be close enough to tell if it's a threat to the islands ... but it would be a couple days later before we could even have an inkling of a potential U.S. threat. It could be a long-tracked storm that threatens the east coast ... or it could eventually hook out to sea. Ask the same question on Monday, though, and you'll probably get a better answer.

-Mike

[Scorpion]

Donsutherland is usually right on with these things, and he says theres a pretty good chance. So I would have to say yes.

[Rashid]

isn't anything that hasn't happened yet a potential threat? hmm...