Horrifying Report on CNN

[AlabamaDave]

I am simply dumbfounded over the possibility that so many people did not evacuate SE LA and the Miss. Gulf Coast. I always thought the number of people who chose to "ride it out" was fairly moderate and, in the face of such a monstrous storm, would be almost negligible.

I keep expecting to wake up out of a horrifying nightmare. It's bad enough that my in-laws have lost their home and possessions in N.O., but to think that there could be a death toll in the multi-thousands is surreal. This is 2005 -- things like this happened 100 years ago or more.... not today.

[wlfpack81]

Wasn't going to post again but man I have to comment here. Try not to get political but want to give some background on to why in my opinion the 2-300,000 left behind number may not be too off. And if I do then well guess bye bye from the boards for good for real

wrong.

No offense but weren't you the one who said at most we'd have 24 deaths from Katrina despite the overwhelming evidence that at least 20% in most areas didn't evacuate? Using a bit logic I'd think it'd be easy to see that more than 24 were going to die from this storm considering the surge heights we were looking at.

I mean let's just get to it. Population in NO about 67% black (data gathered from 2000 census and stated on http://www.city-data.com). 30% of NO citizens live below the poverty line (according to most reports) and most of this 30% are black. Of those 30% below that poverty line I believe some 30-40% are children (heard this on a media report last weekend as the storm was approaching but sorry that I can't remember what source). What a lot don't understand, since most people outside of major cities live such a sheltered life, is that in a lot of urban areas there are situations were you have elderly extended family (aunts, grandparents) raising grandkids, nieces etc. Or situations were the son/daughter is housing an elderly relative. Not every poor person is 20-50yrs old living in relative normal circumstances meaning no health problems, sick relatives etc. Heck honestly it's not a poor black issue but a poor issue period. Poor whites, asians, blacks etc. race regardless all usually have similar scenarios where multi-generations are living together in houses or kids raising parents who are hard to mobilize or grandparents raising grandkids. So add in the NO city limit issue along with the rest of LA, MS, w-ern AL (where there's a lot of poverty period among all races) I don't doubt claims that 2-300,000 stayed back b/t all these regions.

Of those who stayed yes there were some who could've left but didn't (thought they were indestructible) but also those who were poor period or had elderly parents etc. who were very hard to mobilize. Also I had someone mention to me that it's silly to think that these people didn't know anyone in the neighborhoods w/a car. Well, the poor tend to live in groups since as we know low income housing is usually blocked together (trailer parks, the ghetto etc.) so it makes since that you can have large areas w/o cars. I also read in Derek Ortt’s write up that people could've walked away from the area. While he has a right to his opinion I respectively disagree on some points. Yes those who were able and didn't have any other obligations could've walked but if you're an elderly guardian w/grandkids or a son/daughter with a sick elderly mom then walking 70 miles in the heat mind you sounds absurd. And even walking to one of the pick up points for Superdome transportation can be hard if you have no tv/radio to know where they are or have to worry about getting your mom who’s on kidney dialysis there. Even walking a few miles in the heat can overwhelm the elderly, sick elderly and young kids.

I mean come on people there are rich, middle class well off people who don't evac when storms head there way. We’re talking about coastline of 3 states with more poverty than other areas and those who are less educated in general b/c of this poverty. I mean don’t believe me about the poverty then rent a move called LaLee's Kin about a grandmother raising her grandkids in the poor Mississippi delta. You’ll be amazed at how bad it is in this region if you have no idea. Why does 2-300,000 left behind seem so far fetched and I can believe 2-300,000 just in NO alone really. Add in these numbers with the 20-25ft surge in MS and SE LA, and 10-15ft in parts of NO then 1/3 while very very high isn't totally out of the question. Chances may be slim but not totally bunk IMO. Using logic one would have to think it still could near 10,000 given the incredible surge along the coast, possible trees falling onto homes, and the ever dangerous mobile home situation. I mean we've seen pictures of water lines to the top of house. Notice that most of the people rescued in these cases had to break through the roof. I can imagine not everyone who went to the attic could get through the roof b/c they didn't have the tools or strength (elderly people). Heck some probably didn't make it to the attic as water came up fast. So yea 1,200 rescued in some sections of NO which is great but I can fathom 1,000s more in NO alone who may be dead. If some communities really did get 15-20ft of water then breaking out of the roof will do nothing.

Whew. Sorry for long post and I'm sure there's spelling errors but oh well. I was trying to get this out fast while I had thoughts in my mind. I'm sure I left some of what I wanted to say out but I think I got in most of what I was thinking at this moment. Again I know I said I wasn't going to post for a while and I've been trying not to lurk on the boards or watch news as much b/c it's disgusting me. Seems every other minute they're mentioning the looting, looting, looting. It is bad but man they want to make it seem like every damn black person left in the city has gone bonkers and is looting. Well, even if you assume at least 100,000 stayed back if most were looting then you'd see masses of people moving down the streets in the looting images we've seen on TV. I mean it'd be like a mini army given how narrow some of those city streets are. And considering most of east NO is under near 10ft of water and maybe even 6-7ft in some areas near the downtown then only so many areas you can loot (or loot with ease). While I won't say that there couldn't be up to 5-10,000 looters maybe even a few more, if that were the case there's at least another 90% who aren't looting if you go w/100,00 left behind in NO alone though I think there could be up to 200,000 possible who didn't or couldn't evac. Hell even if it's as much as 20,000 looting still more not looting than. Far more at the Superdome, trying to get there, stuck in housing projects / own houses (as we saw from some of the videos this morning), on highways, or dead than looting like crazy. But media plays to demographics and what the demographics tend to think...I'll leave it open ended at that.

[LSU2001]

It is not at all hard to believe that 200,000 people stayed behind after the evacs were ordered. You are talking about 200 miles of coastline not just NO city limits. It is estimated that at least 100,000 stayed in NOLA alone. Remember the superdome is not the only emergency shelter open in NOLA and there are reports of people in various hospitals, hotels, etc. There have been cases where law enforcement officers and their families are trapped in a hotel (The landmark) Several hundred national guard troops were trapped for awhile in Jackson Barracks in ST. Bernard Parish. So I do not believe that a 200,000 estimate is absurd.
JMHO
TIm

[djtil]

it looks like this statement came from the lsu models for new orleans and then quoted through the press as reality.

the models assumed a levee failure and rapid flood....which in reality didnt happen....the models are therefore useless in the actual situation of a slow-rise flood from breaches in the canal walls vs levee failures.

i doubt the mayor says hundreds, maybe even thousands if there wree back-room talks nearing 100k.

[gunner1551]

djtill,

please do a little research on the facts. 70% of Biloxi residents stayed

Yep... and I have no clue why.

I suspect the same is true all along the coast and the result is going to be that most are dead.

I think I have an idea why so many people didnt evac biloxi and gulfport. The only reason why I can think that that many people stayed is because they thought that NO would get hit dead on and when the storm wobbled a little to the east, it caught them completly unprepared.

[TSmith274]

I am extremely worried about people still trapped in atticks unable to bust through the roofs. The ones being rescued now are mostly those who were able to bust through. In New Orleans, attick temperatures with 95 degree heat can rise to 150 degrees... kind of like a car in sunshine. These people will die from the heat. Such a hopeless situation.

[dlaw]

I remember watching the first reports on the BBC of the tsumani death tolls. It took several days before they raised the toll over a few thousand people. Reports re now starting to funnel in on the widespread devastation, its only getting worse. In the LSU report, many deaths are caused by disease after the intial flood. This is a fluid story, the end seems nowhere in sight.....

[stormie_skies]

I mean let's just get to it. Population in NO about 67% black (data gathered from 2000 census and stated on http://www.city-data.com). 30% of NO citizens live below the poverty line (according to most reports) and most of this 30% are black. Of those 30% below that poverty line I believe some 30-40% are children (heard this on a media report last weekend as the storm was approaching but sorry that I can't remember what source). What a lot don't understand, since most people outside of major cities live such a sheltered life, is that in a lot of urban areas there are situations were you have elderly extended family (aunts, grandparents) raising grandkids, nieces etc. Or situations were the son/daughter is housing an elderly relative. Not every poor person is 20-50yrs old living in relative normal circumstances meaning no health problems, sick relatives etc. Heck honestly it's not a poor black issue but a poor issue period. Poor whites, asians, blacks etc. race regardless all usually have similar scenarios where multi-generations are living together in houses or kids raising parents who are hard to mobilize or grandparents raising grandkids. So add in the NO city limit issue along with the rest of LA, MS, w-ern AL (where there's a lot of poverty period among all races) I don't doubt claims that 2-300,000 stayed back b/t all these regions.

Of those who stayed yes there were some who could've left but didn't (thought they were indestructible) but also those who were poor period or had elderly parents etc. who were very hard to mobilize. Also I had someone mention to me that it's silly to think that these people didn't know anyone in the neighborhoods w/a car. Well, the poor tend to live in groups since as we know low income housing is usually blocked together (trailer parks, the ghetto etc.) so it makes since that you can have large areas w/o cars. I also read in Derek Ortt’s write up that people could've walked away from the area. While he has a right to his opinion I respectively disagree on some points. Yes those who were able and didn't have any other obligations could've walked but if you're an elderly guardian w/grandkids or a son/daughter with a sick elderly mom then walking 70 miles in the heat mind you sounds absurd. And even walking to one of the pick up points for Superdome transportation can be hard if you have no tv/radio to know where they are or have to worry about getting your mom who’s on kidney dialysis there. Even walking a few miles in the heat can overwhelm the elderly, sick elderly and young kids.

I mean come on people there are rich, middle class well off people who don't evac when storms head there way. We’re talking about coastline of 3 states with more poverty than other areas and those who are less educated in general. I mean don’t believe me about the poverty then rent a move called LaLee's Kin about a grandmother raising her grandkids in the poor Mississippi delta. You’ll be amazed at how bad it is in this region if you have no idea. Why does 2-300,000 left behind seem so far fetched and I can believe 2-300,000 just in NO alone really. Add in these numbers with the 20-25ft surge in MS and SE LA, and 10-15ft in parts of NO then 1/3 while very very high isn't totally out of the question. Chances may be slim but not totally bunk IMO. Using logic one would have to think it still could near 10,000 given the incredible surge along the coast, possible trees falling onto homes, and the ever dangerous mobile home situation. I mean we've seen pictures of water lines to the top of house. Notice that most of the people rescued in these cases had to break through the roof. I can imagine not everyone who went to the attic could get through the roof b/c they didn't have the tools or strength (elderly people). Heck some probably didn't make it to the attic as water came up fast. So yea 1,200 rescued in some sections of NO which is great but I can fathom 1,000s more in NO alone who may be dead. If some communities really did get 15-20ft of water then breaking out of the roof will do nothing.

Wlfpack, thank you for this post. I don't think it was political at all - and it made some points that needed to be made.

[Brent]

I am extremely worried about people still trapped in atticks unable to bust through the roofs. The ones being rescued now are mostly those who were able to bust through. In New Orleans, attick temperatures with 95 degree heat can rise to 150 degrees... kind of like a car in sunshine. These people will die from the heat. Such a hopeless situation.

Yes... a lot of people are forgetting about that. Plus people who are just stuck but have no food or water. You can't live without it...

[NorthGaWeather]

it looks like this statement came from the lsu models for new orleans and then quoted through the press as reality.

the models assumed a levee failure and rapid flood....which in reality didnt happen....the models are therefore useless in the actual situation of a slow-rise flood from breaches in the canal walls vs levee failures.

i doubt the mayor says hundreds, maybe even thousands if there wree back-room talks nearing 100k.

Please stop posting in these threads when you have no facts to back up your position. 2/300K not evacuating is very reasonable. It didn't say they were dead.

[Stephanie]

I can definately see the possibility of thousands of people dying due to Katrina, if not during the storm then because of her due to disease, being trapped, etc.

[Ziplock]

This is what is bothering me-- If 100,000 people stayed in NO, and there are around thirty thousand at the Dome, and a thousand to fifteen hundred rescued from rooftops (so far), where are the other 60,000 +- people??

A few thousand more still stuck on rooftops...maybe ten thousand? Twenty thousand? Maybe not even that many...hard to guess from the helicopter footage...

So where are the other 40,000 people??

And if there were 200,000 left in the city, then that number unknown goes waaay up... 140,000 ???

I hate to jump in on a thread like this. Just please someone tell me these numbers are all wrong and I should check the facts...I'd love to think everybody got out of their homes.

Sign me sick at heart,
Zip

[soonertwister]

This is what is bothering me-- If 100,000 people stayed in NO, and there are around thirty thousand at the Dome, and a thousand to fifteen hundred rescued from rooftops (so far), where are the other 60,000 +- people??

A few thousand more still stuck on rooftops...maybe ten thousand? Twenty thousand? Maybe not even that many...hard to guess from the helicopter footage...

So where are the other 40,000 people??

And if there were 200,000 left in the city, then that number unknown goes waaay up... 140,000 ???

I hate to jump in on a thread like this. Just please someone tell me these numbers are all wrong and I should check the facts...I'd love to think everybody got out of their homes.

Sign me sick at heart,
Zip

We've seen literally thousands wandering the streets of the city, and there are at least 20 shelters in New Orleans right now, some of them pretty large.

Probably thousands have fled western NOLA over to Jefferson Parish, which may not be good at all, because they are dealing with their own harrowing difficulties there.

I personally believe that much more than 100 thousand stayed, maybe 150, maybe 200. From the entirety of all the reports that I've seen together (one of my highest aptitudes is pattern analysis) I think it's absolutely certain that there are thousands of dead in New Orleans, and possibly thousands more elsewhere.

But the dead are not a priority now. There are so many people in desperate circumstances that emergency responders need to save lives first. Absolutely everything else is secondary.

[MBismyPlayground]

I am sick at heart as well......thinking of the people still stuck in attics, dying from dehydration. OMG and to think, they had to stop rescue efforts because of the A**H**** who are going thru crime sprees. (excuse my language) I am so upset. Listening to CNN and hear about ??rapes?? at the Superdome. This is out of control CRAZY!!!
What is wrong with these people??!!!!

[gatorbabe79]

The TV aired many pre-strike interviews with people staying because "they survived Camille with no problem." If these people are anything like my 74 yr old mother, they are stubborn and set in their ways, or can't sit for hours in a car to go 10 miles, or won't leave the cat. So very sad. We MUST devise a more efficient system for mass evacuation. This whole scenario could be facing is again in the upcoming weeks. I pray God is going to give us better sense in the future, and a lot of fish for the rest of the season.

[Ziplock]

<quote>We've seen literally thousands wandering the streets of the city, and there are at least 20 shelters in New Orleans right now, some of them pretty large.

Probably thousands have fled western NOLA over to Jefferson Parish, which may not be good at all, because they are dealing with their own harrowing difficulties there.

I personally believe that much more than 100 thousand stayed, maybe 150, maybe 200. From the entirety of all the reports that I've seen together (one of my highest aptitudes is pattern analysis) I think it's absolutely certain that there are thousands of dead in New Orleans, and possibly thousands more elsewhere.

But the dead are not a priority now. There are so many people in desperate circumstances that emergency responders need to save lives first. Absolutely everything else is secondary.</quote>



Thanks for your reply to my post. I hope your pattern analysis supports the existance of more survivors than not.

Zip

[Brent]

I am simply dumbfounded over the possibility that so many people did not evacuate SE LA and the Miss. Gulf Coast. I always thought the number of people who chose to "ride it out" was fairly moderate and, in the face of such a monstrous storm, would be almost negligible.

I don't understand it either... but, a lot of people felt that way. I was VERY VERY deeply disturbed on Sunday to see the lack of evacuees leaving the Mississippi Coast.

[cancunkid]

I can definately see the possibility of thousands of people dying due to Katrina, if not during the storm then because of her due to disease, being trapped, etc.

You bring up something I have a question on. How long after a hurricane would they still count deaths and heart attacks brought on by the stress strain and situation? a week? a month? in this situation with NO a year?

[Stormtrack]

maybe not everyone could get to rooftops. Lets hope it is not so horrific that the dead outnumber the survivors

I'm sure that only a very small percent of people got to the rooftops. The majority probably didn't even get to the attics. Most houses have the pull down attic stairs. Some people are physically unable to climb these stairs. And most of the people that did get to the attics I'm sure had no way of getting on the roofs from there.

[NFLnut]

This report is absolutely false and irresponsible. The toll will be in the thousands. NOT 100s of thousands.