Invest 92L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

01/1200 UTC 7.8N 30.5W T1.5/1.5 92 -- Atlantic Ocean


Umm that position is more closer to convection.

[gatorcane]

01/1200 UTC 7.8N 30.5W T1.5/1.5 92 -- Atlantic Ocean


Umm that position is more closer to convection

it's undoubtedly on it's way to depression status as it moves westward.

[Hyperstorm]

There is easterly shear as the low is removed to the east of the convection.If you look at the models some have a tropical storm or even a hurricane just east of the Lesser Antilles.Let's see what occurs with this in the next few days.

Cycloneye,

Anyone remember 97L? Many people and even Dr. Steve Lyons mentioned this disturbance even when it was still over Nigeria, Africa. Even many models promised development. What happened? It never developed.

The morale of this is that even if the models show development, it doesn't mean that it will develop.

The possible reason that these types of systems that are not tropical waves don't develop, is because for some reason they stay within the ITCZ and never gain latitude. The first few signs of anything developing would be if/when the system starts gaining latitude. Unless that happens, I don't see development.

Looks can be deceiving...

[MortisFL]

Looks better organized...time will tell.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050901 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050901 1200 050902 0000 050902 1200 050903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.1N 30.1W 7.5N 32.7W 7.1N 35.1W 7.3N 37.1W
BAMM 8.1N 30.1W 8.0N 32.3W 8.1N 34.6W 8.5N 36.9W
A98E 8.1N 30.1W 8.0N 33.9W 8.0N 37.5W 8.0N 40.8W
LBAR 8.1N 30.1W 8.0N 33.5W 7.9N 37.1W 8.1N 40.7W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050903 1200 050904 1200 050905 1200 050906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 7.8N 39.0W 9.8N 42.8W 12.5N 46.7W 16.1N 50.9W
BAMM 9.2N 39.2W 10.9N 44.3W 12.8N 49.4W 14.9N 54.1W
A98E 7.8N 43.5W 6.2N 47.9W 4.7N 51.5W 3.8N 53.9W
LBAR 8.2N 44.4W 8.1N 51.0W 7.5N 54.8W 14.6N 54.7W
SHIP 52KTS 69KTS 77KTS 86KTS
DSHP 52KTS 69KTS 77KTS 86KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.1N LONCUR = 30.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 8.1N LONM12 = 26.8W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 24KT
LATM24 = 8.1N LONM24 = 22.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


12:00z Model output.

[BensonTCwatcher]

True, we have all been deceived by development patterns this year early on. Just looking at the sats, it looks fairly robust and I 'd say it has a good change of breaking out of the ITCZ based on the vigorous circ. and convection forming. This system looks to be the best chance for a long tracker I have seen this year. That is not good considering the position, and how well the globals are developing it. The impacts could be significant given the climo of these kind of CV systems "raking" the islands and then landfalling on the CONUS. The Hebert box will be interesting to note as it progresses westward. We are not in that "weird" July pattern with the dry air and MJO. The basin finally looks like Sept.

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

Luis I have a feeling you will really need to watch this one.

[cjrciadt]

If the models are correct we could TD15, exactly like Ivan one year ago. First ad. for Ivan was at 9.7N 29.1W.

[KatDaddy]

This could be another GOM threat down the road which is frightening to even think about

[WeatherEmperor]

This could stay far enough south to pose a threat to the islands. its below 10N. Can it still rapidly develop?

<RICKY>

[Brent]

This could stay far enough south to pose a threat to the islands. its below 10N. Can it still rapidly develop?

<RICKY>

Ivan had no trouble...

I think this will be a TD later today...

[cjrciadt]

This could stay far enough south to pose a threat to the islands. its below 10N. Can it still rapidly develop?

<RICKY>

One word: Ivan it deveploped at 9.7. and we know what happened after that.

[Hyperstorm]

This could stay far enough south to pose a threat to the islands. its below 10N. Can it still rapidly develop?

<RICKY>

Ivan had no trouble...

I think this will be a TD later today...

Because Ivan developed from a tropical wave.

This is a complex low pressure system that developed within the ITCZ from the southern edge of a squall line that moved offshore Africa a couple of days ago.

It's NOT the latitude that is a problem. It's the fact that these types of disturbances generally don't develop because they are embedded in the ITCZ and don't have a good forcing mechanism as would be a tropical wave. They move very quickly westward and don't gain latitude.

I have yet to see one of these types of disturbances develop. Could this be an exception? Yes, it could be. But the chances of that aren't high in my book based on their past persistence problems...

[cycloneye]

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED MIDWAY BETWEN AFRICA
AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS WELL-ORGANIZED AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST.


11:30 AM TWO.

[Hyperstorm]

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED MIDWAY BETWEN AFRICA
AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS WELL-ORGANIZED AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST.


11:30 AM TWO.

According to the TAFB analysts, this is not a tropical wave. It hasn't been for the past few days, so I don't how they are calling it a tropical wave.

I would be very surprised if the system becomes a tropical depression during the next 24-48 hours as it is very uncommon to see these disturbances develop. If/When it starts moving WNW, it will have a better chance as that will put it away from the ITCZ. That will be a sign of development.

[dwg71]

Cloud tops have really warmed in the past 6 hours or so. I hope the trend continues. Lee and 14 are not going to affect CONUS in all likelihood, this storm has that potential. A potential that I hope remains unrealized.

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS still looks real bullish on it ... has a TS under fair low to mid level ridging at 96 hours ...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp0_096.shtml

[Rashid]

on satellite images, I see the signature of a wave axis directly to the east of the intense cluster of convection...still no TC present underneath.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS

Jan at 120 hours is a hurricane.