Invest 92L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Canelaw99]

That's just lookin' awful close to the islands for my comfort.

Imagine Cycloneye, head's up!!!

We have family on the island, so all of ya need to be paying attention to this one.

[cjrciadt]

That's just lookin' awful close to the islands for my comfort.

Imagine Cycloneye, head's up!!!

We have family on the island, so all of ya need to be paying attention to this one.

My grandfather will be leaving PR Sept 5th to visit here, hope that is enough time to beat "Maria" or "Nate" if it comes that way.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 1

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 8.2 29.9 270./20.0
6 8.1 30.4 264./ 5.3
12 8.4 31.3 288./ 9.0
18 8.5 32.9 272./16.4
24 8.9 33.9 296./10.4
30 9.7 35.2 301./15.7
36 10.4 37.2 288./20.4
42 10.6 38.7 279./14.5
48 11.1 40.3 285./16.6
54 11.3 42.0 278./17.4
60 11.5 43.0 282./ 9.8
66 12.0 44.5 289./15.4
72 12.6 45.9 293./14.6
78 13.2 47.5 292./16.6
84 13.9 48.8 294./14.8
90 14.5 50.5 293./17.1
96 15.0 52.0 286./15.3
102 15.4 53.5 286./14.7
108 15.9 54.7 293./12.6
114 16.3 56.0 287./13.3
120 16.8 57.1 294./11.8
126 17.4 58.4 296./13.9



12z GFDL.

Also making it a threat to the Northern Lewards.

[WeatherEmperor]

12Z GFDL does not look very nice for the northern islands.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

01/1800 UTC 7.9N 31.9W T1.5/1.5 92 -- Atlantic Ocean


SSD dvorak T numbers.

[Brent]

01/1800 UTC 7.9N 31.9W T1.5/1.5 92 -- Atlantic Ocean


SSD dvorak T numbers.

...continues to slip south.

I'm wondering if this might be a problem for the Central and Southern Islands, not the north.

[Canelaw99]

My grandfather will be leaving PR Sept 5th to visit here, hope that is enough time to beat "Maria" or "Nate" if it comes that way.

That should hopefully be early enough for him to leave safely. Good luck with that

[PuertoRicoLibre]

It looks like 92 will probably be Nate, as opposed to Maria, given the fact that 14 is at 1008 mb according to the 2 pm discussion.

By the way, I think that with so many N names that NHC could choose from in the English language, they had better choices, meaning choices that are more recognizable by folks speaking other languages. Nathan would have been a choice with more global appeal, very biblical.

[SouthFloridawx]

<~~~~~ Nathan/Nate/Nathanial I was afraid of this one lol.....

[Weathermaster]

The NWS office in San Juan, PR already speaking about 92L:

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER FAR FROM THE LOCAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON IS
BEING MONITORED FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. PEOPLE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION SHOULD KEEP INFORMED ON THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH AT PRESENT TIME THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
RESPECT TO FUTURE EFFECTS INTO OUR AREA. PLEASE KEEP INFORMED.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Let call this game fun with quickscat......

I see Mr purple wind flag...and I see ooohhh Mr. dark purple wind flag.

Now when we all form a circle let's call that the "upgrade game" :lol

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/latest_at_2.html

[sma10]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 1

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 8.2 29.9 270./20.0
6 8.1 30.4 264./ 5.3
12 8.4 31.3 288./ 9.0
18 8.5 32.9 272./16.4
24 8.9 33.9 296./10.4
30 9.7 35.2 301./15.7
36 10.4 37.2 288./20.4
42 10.6 38.7 279./14.5
48 11.1 40.3 285./16.6
54 11.3 42.0 278./17.4
60 11.5 43.0 282./ 9.8
66 12.0 44.5 289./15.4
72 12.6 45.9 293./14.6
78 13.2 47.5 292./16.6
84 13.9 48.8 294./14.8
90 14.5 50.5 293./17.1
96 15.0 52.0 286./15.3
102 15.4 53.5 286./14.7
108 15.9 54.7 293./12.6
114 16.3 56.0 287./13.3
120 16.8 57.1 294./11.8
126 17.4 58.4 296./13.9



12z GFDL.

Also making it a threat to the Northern Lewards.

It should be noted that in this run, the GFDL strengthens the storm to 917mb as it approaches the Leewards. Just thought you might like to know.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050901 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050901 1800 050902 0600 050902 1800 050903 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.0N 33.5W 7.3N 36.0W 6.9N 38.1W 6.7N 40.0W
BAMM 8.0N 33.5W 7.3N 35.7W 6.9N 37.4W 7.1N 38.8W
A98E 8.0N 33.5W 8.0N 36.7W 8.0N 39.8W 7.5N 42.8W
LBAR 8.0N 33.5W 7.8N 36.5W 8.0N 39.6W 8.4N 42.8W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 37KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 37KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050903 1800 050904 1800 050905 1800 050906 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 6.8N 41.7W 8.2N 43.8W 11.5N 45.4W 15.8N 47.9W
BAMM 7.9N 40.1W 10.9N 42.8W 14.3N 46.6W 17.6N 51.8W
A98E 6.3N 45.4W 5.5N 49.6W 5.2N 53.3W 5.1N 56.8W
LBAR 8.6N 46.3W 8.9N 52.7W 8.3N 57.0W 15.0N 53.8W
SHIP 47KTS 57KTS 64KTS 69KTS
DSHP 47KTS 57KTS 64KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.0N LONCUR = 33.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 8.1N LONM12 = 30.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 7.9N LONM24 = 23.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



18:00z Model Guidance

[cinlfla]

Do you have graphics?

[TheBurn]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 1

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 8.2 29.9 270./20.0
6 8.1 30.4 264./ 5.3
12 8.4 31.3 288./ 9.0
18 8.5 32.9 272./16.4
24 8.9 33.9 296./10.4
30 9.7 35.2 301./15.7
36 10.4 37.2 288./20.4
42 10.6 38.7 279./14.5
48 11.1 40.3 285./16.6
54 11.3 42.0 278./17.4
60 11.5 43.0 282./ 9.8
66 12.0 44.5 289./15.4
72 12.6 45.9 293./14.6
78 13.2 47.5 292./16.6
84 13.9 48.8 294./14.8
90 14.5 50.5 293./17.1
96 15.0 52.0 286./15.3
102 15.4 53.5 286./14.7
108 15.9 54.7 293./12.6
114 16.3 56.0 287./13.3
120 16.8 57.1 294./11.8
126 17.4 58.4 296./13.9



12z GFDL.

Also making it a threat to the Northern Lewards.

It should be noted that in this run, the GFDL strengthens the storm to 917mb as it approaches the Leewards. Just thought you might like to know.

Do you or anyone have a graphic of the GFDL showing the pressures?

[TheBurn]

[Brent]

It should be noted that in this run, the GFDL strengthens the storm to 917mb as it approaches the Leewards. Just thought you might like to know.

[PuertoRicoLibre]

It should be noted that in this run, the GFDL strengthens the storm to 917mb as it approaches the Leewards. Just thought you might like to know.

Two Cat 5's in one month? Now that would be another record.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I sure hope not. Let hope the GFDL is overdoing it this time.