Anyone able to get the latest ECMWF?

[Vortex]

Interested on what/if ECMWF picks up on 92 and where it places it in 7 days...Latest guidance with a link would be great...Lost most of my Favs..Thanks

[frankthetank]

http://ecmwf.int

http://weather.cod.edu

??

[x-y-no]

From th Plymouth State Site

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbcalc2.html

This is 7 days on the 0Z run:



They don't have the 12Z run out to 7 days yet ... maybe half an hour or so.

[x-y-no]

12Z out to 7 days now ...

Two things of note:

1) It seems to lose 92L (or maybe crash it into South America) - not so credible, IMHO.

2) The homebrew system is now much weaker, and heading west across Florida.

[Hyperstorm]

12Z out to 7 days now ...

Two things of note:

1) It seems to lose 92L (or maybe crash it into South America) - not so credible, IMHO.

2) The homebrew system is now much weaker, and heading west across Florida.

x-y-no,

Why is it not so credible now? Because it doesn't show development as many might think?

I believe this model is just as credible, if not more so, than the ones that show development because it will go more with the climatology of these ITCZ lows that develop from the southern edge of the squall lines that move offshore. As I said earlier, these lows tend to have a very hard time developing and end up in South America.

I just go with what is "usual" for these disturbances, and right now the system is proving this "climatology" right...

[x-y-no]

x-y-no,

Why is it not so credible now? Because it doesn't show development as many might think?

Because in my jugement, looking at the full suite of global models, the synoptic situation favors a track towards the leewards with at least moderate development.

I believe this model is just as credible, if not more so, than the ones that show development because it will go more with the climatology of these ITCZ lows that develop from the southern edge of the squall lines that move offshore. As I said earlier, these lows tend to have a very hard time developing and end up in South America.

I just go with what is "usual" for these disturbances, and right now the system is proving this "climatology" right...

I look forward, with interest, to seeing which of us is nearer to being correct.

[Steve H.]

Hyperstorm, why are you so insistent that 92L will not develop? Regardless of whether it was a "wave" or not., it has a circulation and a favorable environment. If it was early in the season I might tend to agree with you. But not in the first week of September! It is already showing flareups on its north side. Not all low latitude storms dissipate, wave or not. Once they have a well-established circulation, they don't remember I think it has an excellent chance of further development

[Hyperstorm]

Hyperstorm, why are you so insistent that 92L will not develop? Regardless of whether it was a "wave" or not., it has a circulation and a favorable environment. If it was early in the season I might tend to agree with you. But not in the first week of September! It is already showing flareups on its north side. Not all low latitude storms dissipate, wave or not. Once they have a well-established circulation, they don't remember I think it has an excellent chance of further development

Steve,

These disturbances are so hard to develop and that's why I'm skeptical at it. I haven't seen a system develop out of the southern edge of a squall line. Yes, there have many vortices of low pressure that develop from them, but they don't end up developing more than that. Right now, the system is showing mixed signals tonight with a band tilted to the ENE and mid-level circulation WELL west of the low (which is typical of these disturbances). Its energy from the MLC appears to be tilted as well, but from the NW to SE in not a favorable manner.

x-y-no,

It would be interesting to see which solution ends up being closer to reality, but I'm not here to compete or prove myself right or wrong. If I'm right, I would be thankful that nothing threatened the islands. If I'm wrong, I would feel sorry for them.

[x-y-no]

I'm not here to compete either, hyperstorm. I'm here to learn.