I know it's probably too far out, but what are the chances of an eventual US impact? GFS long, long range track seems to be a recurve between Bermuda and the east coast. But that's 7-10 days out so you can't put too much stock in it. Any expert thoughts?
-Mike
Invest 92L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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Weatherboy1
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US impact?
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BensonTCwatcher
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SouthFloridawx
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Brent
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10:30 TWO:
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT... AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT... AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD.
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#neversummer
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Hyperstorm
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This evening there have been interesting developments regarding 92L.
Remember the earlier low pressure center that we were tracking and it was WELL east of the convection? That low pressure center is totally weakening and elongating.
HOWEVER, a NEW MLC and possibly a LLC with a new low pressure center appears to be developing MUCH closer, and in fact, underneath the area of convection very near 8.5N 37.5W. If that trend continues, this will be classified as a tropical depression.
The system has had trouble so far (for the reasons I've mentioned i.e. ITCZ low, i.e. squall line low, etc.) and that's why development up to this point has been VERY slow. Now that the system appears to be developing its own low pressure center underneath the convection, the chances of development are definitely increasing.
It is still moving VERY quickly westward and that is an inhibiting factor as that means that it is still associated with the ITCZ. It has to slow down and begin to track WNW for it to FULLY develop. Development past depression stage will depend on this.
I'm still not jumping on significant development, but the chances are higher due to this new low pressure development. If it becomes a tropical storm it will be VERY unusual and in fact, I have not seen this kind of a system develop in recent years.
It's always nice to follow what climatology says, but sometimes its rules are not followed.
I will be very interested in seeing how this scenario transpires...
Remember the earlier low pressure center that we were tracking and it was WELL east of the convection? That low pressure center is totally weakening and elongating.
HOWEVER, a NEW MLC and possibly a LLC with a new low pressure center appears to be developing MUCH closer, and in fact, underneath the area of convection very near 8.5N 37.5W. If that trend continues, this will be classified as a tropical depression.
The system has had trouble so far (for the reasons I've mentioned i.e. ITCZ low, i.e. squall line low, etc.) and that's why development up to this point has been VERY slow. Now that the system appears to be developing its own low pressure center underneath the convection, the chances of development are definitely increasing.
It is still moving VERY quickly westward and that is an inhibiting factor as that means that it is still associated with the ITCZ. It has to slow down and begin to track WNW for it to FULLY develop. Development past depression stage will depend on this.
I'm still not jumping on significant development, but the chances are higher due to this new low pressure development. If it becomes a tropical storm it will be VERY unusual and in fact, I have not seen this kind of a system develop in recent years.
It's always nice to follow what climatology says, but sometimes its rules are not followed.
I will be very interested in seeing how this scenario transpires...
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cycloneye
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Intreresting Hyperstorm as always your analyisis.About what all the folks from the islands want to know is where it will go?
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Hyperstorm
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cycloneye wrote:Intreresting Hyperstorm as always your analyisis.About what all the folks from the islands want to know is where it will go?
Cycloneye,
This is one of the systems that will have to be monitored from Trinidad/Tobago to Puerto Rico. If this new low develops and strengthens it will start moving WNW. Depending on how far north it goes, means how close it will get to the northern islands.
If the low stays weak and does not develop past depression stage, it will go directly toward the southern islands or South America, which has been my thinking so far. This solution is basically non-threatening because it will be a weak system.
The northern islands will have to watch it carefully, if this possible new center becomes deeper...
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Sorry Hyperstorm but the intensification you state - weak - is not a good solution IMO. I see this as a depression sometime tomorrow 11 or 5, depending on the mood at the NHC, then TS by Saturday morning and Hurricane at 84 - 96 hours. This system now has everything going for it, and its forward motion has slowed. Luis, this may get real close to you. Get supplies ready.
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Brent
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Steve H. wrote:Sorry Hyperstorm but the intensification you state - weak - is not a good solution IMO. I see this as a depression sometime tomorrow 11 or 5, depending on the mood at the NHC, then TS by Saturday morning and Hurricane at 84 - 96 hours. This system now has everything going for it, and its forward motion has slowed. Luis, this may get real close to you. Get supplies ready.
I agree... this really looks like the Cape Verde storm of the season for someone.
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#neversummer
The easterlies are pretty strong as evidenced by the shear racing off ahead of 92L.
There is still a little weakness left behind TD14 that some of the models are suggesting will steer 92L if it spins up.
The NHC said 92L could develop anytime in the next 36 hours but if it stays weak and continues to race west south of 10N it may miss the weakness.
If 92L doesn't play follow the leader behind TD 14 there is not much to pull a storm that far south out to sea.
There is still a little weakness left behind TD14 that some of the models are suggesting will steer 92L if it spins up.
The NHC said 92L could develop anytime in the next 36 hours but if it stays weak and continues to race west south of 10N it may miss the weakness.
If 92L doesn't play follow the leader behind TD 14 there is not much to pull a storm that far south out to sea.
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cycloneye
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As long the system is embedded with the ITCZ nothing will happen in terms of development.As my friend Hyperstorm said yesterday this kind of systems go thru very difficult periods as they try to develop as squall lines are not wave axis.But on the contrary if a low pressure is with a wave axis then things look better for development for a system.Also it has to begin to pull up in latitud to get going.So in other words 92L will have a tough time to develop unless it pulls out of the ITCZ and starts to gain latitud.
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no advance
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cycloneye
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02/1145 UTC 10.0N 34.6W TOO WEAK 92 -- Atlantic Ocean
Well nothing impressive at all right now but interesting that the new position of SSD dvorak is more north 10.0n now than the 6.8n position earlier this morning.
Well nothing impressive at all right now but interesting that the new position of SSD dvorak is more north 10.0n now than the 6.8n position earlier this morning.
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