Tropical Storm Maria,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[boca]

Boca_chris were did you see it bending west and is that the latest updates.Their is also a massive high over the midwest and SE and that could be the reason of the bend towards the west.

[Patrick99]

Maria? Who dat? When I got in this morning I looked at the NHC site and it wasn't named yet...how quickly things change!

[gatorcane]

I just took a look at the latest model run and indeed models are pulling it northward eventually....yet another fish.

[Patrick99]

Thank you for clarifying that about the X trap, the answers a lot of questions I had about it.

I rather like the XTRAP....in the short term, it's about as good as it gets

[clfenwi]

The BAM's i.e BAM deep, BAM shallow, BAM medium are tropic models and are not set up to be useful above say 20N. The extrap is the extrapolation of the current initial motion. it is the direction the storm is moving at the time. The GFDL is is based on the GFS ( Global Forecasting System) and is a true global model i.e. it takes into account the global features in the atmosphere. same for UKmet. I think the NOGAPS is the Navy version based on GFS.

They all have thier value, like any other tool you have to know how to use it.

The globals will carry the most weight from here on out. The BAMS are useful overlayed since they smooth out the motion. They react more like a real storm will i.e. no sharp turns blazing increases in speed, left hooks etc. Use them as group and over time, and they will tell you where the storm is really going, not run to run.

GFDL is not a true global model as its outer grid is 'only' 75° by 75° .

NOGAPS was developed completely independently from the GFS. Other than the fact that they are both global spectral models, there aren't many similarities betweem the two. (You can compare the characteristics here: http://meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/ )

[no advance]

Does anyone see twins here with this depression. Seems like they are connected.

[no advance]

Here is a link. Also notice the southern system is making a comeback. Dont download with dial up. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[HURAKAN]

Maria becomes the earliest that the 13th named system of the year forms. Also, she opens September.

[no advance]

Famous M storms I can remember. Mitch, everyone remembers her and Marlyn which wacked St Thomas. Any others?

[WeatherEmperor]

Famous M storms I can remember. Mitch, everyone remembers her and Marlyn which wacked St Thomas. Any others?

Well Michelle in 2001 did some action in Cuba.

<RICKY>

[Jim Hughes]

Does anyone see twins here with this depression. Seems like they are connected.

I have twins and believe me they are not behaving like twins.


Jim

[HURAKAN]

02/1745 UTC 21.6N 50.4W T3.0/3.0 91 -- Atlantic Ocean


GOING UP, UP, UP!!!

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM MARIA (AL142005) ON 20050902 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050902 1800 050903 0600 050903 1800 050904 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.6N 50.1W 23.3N 51.5W 25.1N 52.7W 26.8N 53.5W
BAMM 21.6N 50.1W 23.3N 51.5W 25.1N 52.9W 26.9N 53.8W
A98E 21.6N 50.1W 22.6N 51.9W 24.2N 53.6W 26.0N 55.0W
LBAR 21.6N 50.1W 22.8N 51.6W 24.4N 53.0W 26.3N 54.4W
SHIP 45KTS 57KTS 66KTS 74KTS
DSHP 45KTS 57KTS 66KTS 74KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050904 1800 050905 1800 050906 1800 050907 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.0N 54.0W 29.2N 55.2W 29.3N 56.4W 29.6N 57.3W
BAMM 28.6N 54.5W 31.4N 55.8W 33.9N 55.9W 34.9N 52.3W
A98E 27.9N 56.5W 32.5N 57.9W 35.7N 56.6W 36.8N 48.6W
LBAR 28.1N 55.3W 31.5N 56.5W 33.7N 56.3W 34.4N 53.1W
SHIP 79KTS 83KTS 84KTS 79KTS
DSHP 79KTS 83KTS 84KTS 79KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.6N LONCUR = 50.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 20.4N LONM12 = 47.7W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 19.3N LONM24 = 46.2W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 60NM


At 5 PM advisorie will go up to 50 mph.

[MiamiensisWx]

Maria is starting to look pretty impressive on both visible and infra-red imagery. Take a look...

Visible imagery... has a good overall starting shape...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg

Infra-red imagery... very good convection...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

[cinlfla]

Which way is she moving, I can't tell, can someone look at a Sat Loop and tell me which direction she is going in. Thanks

[cycloneye]

Which way is she moving, I can't tell, can someone look at a Sat Loop and tell me which direction she is going in. Thanks

Moving WestNorthwest at 11kts.

[cinlfla]

Thank You, its hard for me to see the direction when I can't find the center.

[MiamiensisWx]

Which way is she moving, I can't tell, can someone look at a Sat Loop and tell me which direction she is going in. Thanks

Based on visible and infra-red loops I viewed, it appears it was moving mainly with a westward component that was ever so slightly north of west. However, in the last frames Maria seems to have stalled and wobbled somewhat. Anyone else notice this?

Here are the floaters...

Visible:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

Infra-red:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

[cinlfla]

From what I can see, She is not moving very much north but I don't know where the center is so its kind of hard for me to tell. She does look to have slowed down though.

[MiamiensisWx]

From what I can see, She is not moving very much north but I don't know where the center is so its kind of hard for me to tell. She does look to have slowed down though.

Agreed. She has slowed down and apparently stalled somewhat, based on my viewing of the last floater frames.