MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2084
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 261801Z - 262030Z
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS MUCH
   OF NRN AND CNTRL AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL BE POORLY ORGANIZED BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.
   
   AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF AR WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY HOT AND
   UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA
   INDICATING MLCAPE CLIMBING ABOVE 2500 J/KG. ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS
   BEGUN TO INITIATE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   SPREADING SOUTH FROM MO. STEEP THETA-E LAPSE RATES WERE CONTRIBUTING
   TO DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK BACKGROUND
   FLOW AND LITTLE INHIBITION...NUMEROUS PULSE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE BRIEF DAMAGING
   MICROBURSTS. A WATCH IS NOT BEING PLANNED FOR THIS REGION AT THIS
   TIME UNLESS ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED THAN
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...
   
   36459029 34439146 33439385 34539462 35419441 36439414

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2085
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0218 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 261918Z - 262145Z
   
   PORTIONS OF SERN KS AND NRN OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
   SEVERE TSTM WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS INITIATING ACROSS
   THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
   
   SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SFC PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
   THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND LARGE MCS NOW MOVING ACROSS SERN MO. A WEAK
   WAKE LOW HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN RECENT MESOANALYSES OVER SERN KS...
   WITH DECAYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THIS WAKE LOW ACROSS
   NERN OK AND NWRN AR. MEANWHILE...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS
   SITUATED FROM NERN KS SWWD TO NWRN OK WITH A WEAK THERMAL LOW/TROUGH
   FORMING NEAR THE FRONT ON THE KS/OK BORDER. AIR MASS NEAR AND AHEAD
   OF THESE SFC FEATURES WAS BECOMING VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE WITH LATEST
   MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. INHIBITION APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING
   SUFFICIENTLY FOR NEAR SFC-BASED CU/TCU TO START FORMING FROM EMP
   SWWD ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR THE OLD OUTFLOW. WHILE REGION APPEARS
   TO BE WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK TO NEUTRAL FORCING FOR ASCENT AT THIS
   TIME...ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
   LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
   UPWARD MOTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER TODAY AS A STRONG SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NEB.
   
   PROFILER AND VWP WINDS WERE INDICATING ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN
   PLACE FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED FOR
   CELLS TRACKING PREFERENTIALLY ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW. EXPECT A FEW
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   37319795 38579633 38379506 37959467 37239466 36939467
   36819524 36509620 36129854

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2086
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0241 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MO...SRN IL...WRN KS...SWRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 747...
   
   VALID 261941Z - 262045Z
   
   ARCING SQUALL LINE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST HOUR AND
   CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH SEVERE TSTM WATCH 747 AT ABOUT 35KT.
   ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO 35-40KT MID LEVEL FLOW...AND
   AN AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL
   BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST
   OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   ONE BOW ECHO WAS MOVING INTO MARION AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...AND
   ANOTHER INTO FRANKLIN AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...BOTH IN SCNTRL IL.
   THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
   THE SHORT-TERM. SHEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL ALSO MARGINALLY
   SUPPORT SUPERCELLS EITHER AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE..OR NEAR THE
   TRAILING PART OF THE LINE. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL
   TO PRODUCE HAIL.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 08/26/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...
   
   36548908 36689182 37839087 38838974 39188966 38978703
   36388719

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2100
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0242 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...KS...NRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 281942Z - 282145Z
   
   A NUMBER OF WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
   ACROSS THE PARTS OF KS AND NRN MO THIS AFTERNOON. IF COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE A WATCH MAY BE
   NEEDED.
   
   DIFFLUENT AND INCREASING NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WAS SPREADING SEWD ATOP
   INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM WCNTRL KS TO NRN MO THIS
   AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND WEAK
   CONVERGENCE ALONG ILL-FORMED SURFACE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
   RESULT IN SCATTERED PULSE OR WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WITH
   HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
   POSE ONLY A BRIEF SEVERE THREAT BEFORE COLLAPSING. HOWEVER...A WATCH
   MAY BE NEEDED IF IT APPEARS THAT STORM CLUSTER MERGES BEGIN TO POSE
   A GREATER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER A LARGER REGION.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 08/28/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
   
   37889657 37439868 37419949 38070004 39559768 40189427
   40479175 39729172 39139383

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2103
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0456 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 751...
   
   VALID 282156Z - 282330Z
   
   21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES 2 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF 1-2 MB OVER
   FAR SERN NM INTO SWRN TX...WHERE STRONG HEATING IS TAKING PLACE.
   MEANWHILE...STORMS OVER SERN NM...SOME SEVERE...CONTINUE TO MOVE IN
   A GENERAL SLY DIRECTION AND INTO SRN PORTIONS OF WW. SOME THREAT FOR
   LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST IMMEDIATELY
   SOUTH OF WW INTO FAR W TX BUT AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY NOT BE REQUIRED.
   FARTHER N...THREAT IS DIMINISHING OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW DUE TO
   COOL OUTFLOW AND SEVERE REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THIS
   AREA DUE TO INFILTRATION OF MORE STABLE AIR.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 08/28/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
   
   34410405 29880267 29060317 29790446 30630483 32070597
   33460634 34460650

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2104
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0509 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB...SWRN IA...NERN
   KS...NWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 750...
   
   VALID 282209Z - 282345Z
   
   CENTRAL/ERN PORTION OF ORIGINAL WW MAY BE CLEARED AS INCREASINGLY
   DEEP/STABLE OUTFLOW POOL SPREADS ACROSS AREA.  ANOTHER WW MAY BE
   REQUIRED FARTHER S ASTRIDE MO VALLEY...INTO NWRN MO...POSSIBLY
   EXTENDING WWD NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SRN NEB/N-CENTRAL KS.
   
   MULTICELLULAR MCS OVER SERN NEB IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD DOWN MO
   VALLEY AND ADJACENT SECTIONS IA/MO/KS INTO AIR MASS THAT -- FOR
   ANOTHER FEW HOURS -- WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY UNSTABLE FOR
   STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   LARGE BUOYANCY...WITH 70S F SFC DEW POINTS...7-8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...AND REMAINING DIURNAL HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES
   2000-3000 J/KG.  AFTER ABOUT 03Z...INFLOW LAYER REGION SHOULD
   DECOUPLE OFF SURFACE WITH OPTIMAL INSTABILITY BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY
   MORE ELEVATED. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD REMAIN SMALL BEFORE
   SUNSET BECAUSE OF WEAK SPEEDS...HOWEVER STRONG TURNING WITH HEIGHT
   AND 50-60 KT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE
   POTENTIAL.  ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FARTHER W ALONG AND N OF
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD MOVE SWWD ACROSS KS/NEB BORDER REGION.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/28/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...
   
   41429949 40899857 40669800 40669727 40919606 41579536
   41249449 40569360 39939328 39489361 39039455 38979516
   39099618 39569765 40219932 40580047 40930051 41449997

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2105
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0632 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN LA...SRN MS...SWRN AL...WRN FL
   PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 752...
   
   VALID 282332Z - 290100Z
   
   TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH 2Z OVER SANTA
   ROSA/ESCAMBIA COUNTIES FL...COASTAL COUNTIES OF AL/MS...WWD ACROSS
   I-10/I-12 CORRIDOR AROUND BOTH SIDES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NWD
   TO E-W SEGMENT OF LA/MS BORDER. 
   
   PROMINENT SPIRAL BAND -- CONTAINING DISCRETE CELLS WITH POTENTIAL TO
   BECOME SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS -- WAS EVIDENT AT 2330Z FROM ABOUT 25 S
   PNS WNWWD TO JUST OFFSHORE DAUPHIN ISLAND THEN WWD TOWARD LAKE
   BORGNE.  EXPECT THIS BAND TO SHIFT NNWWD IN TUNE WITH AMBIENT
   HURRICANE TRANSLATION...AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE WNWWD.  ENVIRONMENT
   WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEADILY INCREASING DEEP-LAYER WIND
   PROFILES AND MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH 0-1 KM SRH ALREADY
   200-300 J/KG OVER MOB REGION BASED ON VWP HODOGRAPHS AND OBSERVED
   STORM MOTIONS. SRH WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WWD ACROSS SERN LA AND
   EWD ACROSS FL PANHANDLE...WITH MAX LOCATED IN PERIPHERAL NERN
   QUADRANT...SHIFTING SLOWLY INLAND OVER SWRN AL AND SRN MS.
   
   REF NHC ADVISORIES FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FORECASTS AND
   WARNING/WATCH INFO REGARDING CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE KATRINA.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/28/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   29508636 28959081 31439079 31958636

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2106
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0754 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS...NWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 753...
   
   VALID 290054Z - 290200Z
   
   WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 4Z EXPIRATION IF PRESENT TRENDS
   CONTINUE AND ACTIVITY MOVES SE FROM WW.  MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL
   WILL LINGER TO ITS E AND SE.  PER COORD/W TOPEKA...NERN KS COUNTIES
   W OF LAWRENCE HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM WW BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   PASSAGE AND LACK OF ADDITIONAL/SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
   REMAINDER WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION THAT
   LIES JUST BEHIND SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS AREA FROM MKC-EMP -- WITH
   MOST NEW NERN KS/NWRN MO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO SHIFT
   QUICKLY BEHIND BOUNDARY.  FARTHER NE...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE
   MULTICELL COMPLEX -- NOW EVIDENT FROM DECATUR COUNTY IA SWWD ROUGHLY
   ALONG I-35 TO NRN FRINGES OF KC METRO AREA -- IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE MOVING SEWD OUT OF WW AREA WITH OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS
   AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE.  FOREGOING AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
   UNSTABLE ABOVE SFC FOR ABOUT 50-60 NM BEFORE REACHING RELATIVELY
   LOW-THETAE OUTFLOW POOL LEFT BY PRIOR CONVECTION ACROSS N-CENTRAL
   MO.  EXPECT WEAKENING OF THIS ACTIVITY BY ABOUT 3Z AS THIS
   OCCURS...AND AS INFLOW LAYER BECOMES DECOUPLED FROM SFC BECAUSE OF
   DIABATIC COOLING.  INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOWS FROM N-CENTRAL MO AND
   NERN KS COMPLEXES SHOULD PROPAGATE SWD INVOF MO/KS BORDER S OF
   MKC...ASSOCIATED LIFT CAUSING SCATTERED TSTMS FOR SEVERAL MORE
   HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED MUCAPES 2000-3000
   J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED TOP RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS.  PRIND SEVERE
   POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR ADDITIONAL WW BECAUSE OF
   COOLING SFC LAYER AND WEAK DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR.  HOWEVER...WILL
   CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   39219702 39099645 39149576 39339522 39549486 40079429
   40469413 40709391 40599344 40329311 40009303 39779337
   39419360 39069358 38819354 38379362 38029394 37829438
   37829482 38089549 38689637

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2109
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0633 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA / SRN MS / SRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 754...
   
   VALID 291133Z - 291330Z
   
   TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW...AS EYE OF KATRINA CONTINUES
   MOVING NWD ACROSS PLAQUEMINES PARISH.
   
   MOB VWP SHOWS A VERY IMPRESSIVE 1000 M2/S2 SFC-1 KM HELICITY
   ATTM...IN NERN QUADRANT OF KATRINA.  GREATEST COVERAGE OF DISCRETE
   CELLS ATTM EXISTS ACROSS SRN AL / THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE...WHICH
   COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT GREATEST
   SHORT-TERM TORNADO THREAT EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION. 
   
   OVERALL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
   AROUND FRINGES OF THE DENSER CLOUD SHIELD...AS LIMITED DAYTIME
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION COMMENCES.
   
   ..GOSS.. 08/29/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   30549065 31788886 32168685 30388592 29758634 29218889
   29799019

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/SWRN GA/CENTRAL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO POTENTIAL

VALID 291241Z - 291415Z



TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS THIS
REGION...WITHIN FAR OUTER BANDS OF KATRINA. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DISCRETE CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE ATTM...E OF TORNADO WATCH 754. THOUGH
INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM...AREA IS FAR
ENOUGH E OF MAIN OVERCAST ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA THAT BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD HEAT/DESTABILIZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST THAT CELLULAR CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE/MOVE NNWWD
ACROSS THIS AREA.

THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT...LATEST TLH VWP
AND MORNING RAOB BOTH SHOW 30 TO 35 KT SFC-1KM SHEAR -- SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED NEED FOR WW
ISSUANCE.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN MS / CENTRAL AND SRN AL / FL PANHANDLE
/ SWRN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 754...

VALID 291436Z - 291600Z



A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED AND WILL REPLACE THE EXISTING
WATCH 754.

VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES EXIST OVER A LARGE AREA...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD FARTHER N AND E INTO AL AND GA AS
HURRICANE KATRINA MOVES NWD. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THETA-E AXIS
OVER SRN GA EXTENDING WWD INTO AL WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE 80S. CELLS WITHIN
THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2114
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0542 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN MS...CENTRAL/NWRN AL...SRN PORTIONS OF
   WRN/MIDDLE TN
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 292242Z - 300145Z
   
   NERN INNER-CORE REGION OF HURRICANE KATRINA WILL SHIFT NWD ACROSS
   THIS REGION...WITH PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL RATES 2-4
   INCHES/HOUR.  THIS WILL COMPOUND HAZARD BEGUN BY OUTER BAND RAINS
   EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW PASSING ACROSS NRN PART OF DISCUSSION
   AREA.
   
   STRONG CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE WITHIN 100-120 NM E THROUGH NW OF
   CENTER OF KATRINA...REMAINING PRIMARY FACTOR IN CONCENTRATING HEAVY
   RAIN PRODUCTION AS PRECIP PLUME MOVES OVHD FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT ANY
   GIVEN LOCALE WITHIN THIS SWATH.  THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TYPICALLY
   RICH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...I.E. PW 2.25-2.75 THAT IS ESTIMATED BASED
   ON MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS.  VERY EFFICIENT WARM
   CLOUD PRECIP PROCESSES DO AND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THIS
   REGIME...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF ACTIVITY TO TC CORE AND LACK OF CG
   LIGHTNING DETECTED.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
   
   32758730 33378783 33588839 34028959 33809027 34729047
   35379001 35548904 35348769 34708681 33618646 32818665
   32638718

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN/PARTS OF WRN NC/CENTRAL AND NRN GA...

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 758...

VALID 301247Z - 301445Z



TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS WW AREA.

THOUGH CONVECTION HAS REMAINED ISOLATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...SUBTLE INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEEN NOTED OVER
THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NERN GA AND INTO THE
WRN CAROLINAS. THIS IS POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO THE ONSET OF LIMITED
HEATING...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE RISES OF 1 TO 2 DEGREES NOTED AT
A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE PAST HOUR. AS LIMITED/LOCAL HEATING
CONTINUES...DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION AND EWD INTO
NEWLY-ISSUED WW 759.

WITH LOCAL VWPS SHOWING FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR...STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SHOULD RAPIDLY ACQUIRE
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
/DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S/ ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS
THAT TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH TIME THROUGH THIS MORNING.

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2121
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SC...WRN NC...SRN WV...WRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 760...761...
   
   VALID 302037Z - 302200Z
   
   ...ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TORNADO WATCH
   REGION...
   
   BACK EDGE OF ANY MEANINGFUL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE THE
   ADVANCING THICKER STRATIFIED LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. STRONGER
   PRESSURE FALLS AND MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE NOTED
   DOWNSTREAM...MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF APPALACHIANS.  SOMEWHAT DISCRETE
   STORM STRUCTURES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE NOTED DOWNSTREAM
   WITHIN BROKEN...BUT BANDED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
   WRN NC INTO WRN VA.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY PARTIAL HEATING
   AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. IT APPEARS A
   FEW OF THESE SMALL SUPERCELLS WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
   PIEDMONT TOWARD NRN VA.  THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A
   POTENTIAL WW.
   
   ..DARROW.. 08/30/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...
   
   34628181 36888212 38158244 38588116 37988028 37587826

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2122
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0702 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN WV...WRN VA...WRN/NRN
   NC...EXTREME ERN KY.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 760...761...
   
   VALID 310002Z - 310100Z
   
   PRIND WWS 760/761 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.  TORNADO
   POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE GONE ALTOGETHER BY 01Z...BUT WILL DIMINISH
   CONSIDERABLY OVER THIS REGION THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING AS
   CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LESSEN IN COVERAGE. VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS FROM THIS AREA
   NWD OVER NRN WV AND WRN PA...AS CENTRAL REMAINS OF FORMER HURRICANE
   KATRINA SHIFT NEWD OVER OH TONIGHT.  HOWEVER BUOYANCY HAS DECREASED
   ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ONLY VERY ISOLATED/BRIEF CONVECTION DEEP ENOUGH TO
   PRODUCE LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH GRADUAL
   LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING.
   
   AREAS E OF WW 760 ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND SERN VA WILL MAINTAIN MORE
   FAVORABLE CAPE...BUT ALSO WILL REMAIN IN TRANSITION ZONE TO SMALLER
   0-1 KM SRH AMIDST LARGELY LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE.  WILL CONTINUE TO
   MONITOR.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/31/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...
   
   35508021 35638071 35758119 35918126 36398103 36748097
   36988110 37098122 36848223 38958182 38988093 38087958
   37527861 36887851 35937917 34848010 35328008

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2123
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0725 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN MD...DC...CENTRAL/NRN VA.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 762...
   
   VALID 310025Z - 310230Z
   
   MOST TSTMS SHOW DIMINISHING TREND ATTM AS THEY MOVE NWD INTO
   SOMEWHAT LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AND OVERALL TENDENCY SHOULD BE OF
   WEAKENING FOR REMAINDER OF WW DURATION BECAUSE OF GRADUAL DIABATIC
   COOLING IN BOUNDARY LAYER.  HOWEVER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN BROADLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
   OBSERVED IN REGIONAL VWP AND FCST BY RUC SOUNDINGS FOR SEVERAL MORE
   HOURS. LATEST STERLING/LWX VWP YIELDS 0-1 KM SRH APPROXIMATELY 200
   J/KG FOR NEWD MOVING CELLS...AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 45-55 KT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE TSTMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
   SHOULD ROTATE AND MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES.  THEREFORE WW SHOULD BE
   MAINTAINED AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS DESPITE DECREASING
   GENERAL TREND IN CONVECTION.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/31/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...RLX...
   
   36807883 38137999 39747747 38387631

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2132
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0725 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN-SRN ND AND NWRN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 030025Z - 030130Z
   
   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN ND AND
   NWRN SD THIS EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING TO THE SE ALONG THE
   INSTABILITY AXIS/GRADIENT INTO FAR SRN ND AND CENTRAL SD.  ISOLATED
   HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE
   STRONGEST STORMS. 
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED NEAR
   THE INTERSECTION OF THE LEE TROUGH AND RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER
   FAR SWRN ND /BOWMAN COUNTY/.  THE AIR MASS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE
   STORMS AND DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL SD IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTIVE OF
   SEVERE STORMS GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG/ AND
   35-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.  DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE SEVERE
   PARAMETERS AND THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THIS
   EVENING...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE
   FORMATION OF ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED STORMS.  SHORT TERM MODELS
   SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD WITH A SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER ERN MT...WITH ADDITIONAL ASCENT FOR NEW
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS INTO THE
   NRN PLAINS.  AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE OF THE STRONGEST ELEVATED
   ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.  HOWEVER...IF COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY INCREASES...THEN A WW WOULD BE REQUIRED.
   
   ..PETERS.. 09/03/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   45650364 46330344 46580271 46220074 45479929 44399861
   43509877 43269941 43750068 44520194 44720347

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2145
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0319 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NERN SD/NWRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 052019Z - 052145Z
   
   INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
   CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKEWISE
   INCREASE...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER W CENTRAL
   SD...WITH A SLOWLY RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS
   N CENTRAL SD/ERN ND.  AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
   HEAT/DESTABILIZE...WITH 80S TO NEAR 90 TEMPERATURES AND UPPER 60S TO
   NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS YIELDING 2000 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE.
   HOWEVER...AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MORNING
   ABR /ABERDEEN SD/ RAOB DEPICTING STRONG INVERSION NEAR 800 MB.
   NONETHELESS...CONVECTION NOW IN BARNES/GRIGGS COUNTIES IN ND --
   THOUGH LIKELY STILL ELEVATED -- HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY
   OVER THE PAST HOUR AS UVV ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL VORT
   MAX SPREADS ACROSS THIS REGION.  CONTINUED ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW
   FURTHER WEAKENING OF CAP...AND ATTM WOULD EXPECT SOME SURFACE-BASED
   STORM DEVELOPMENT BY 05/22-23Z. 
   
   ASSUMING STORMS DEVELOP...MODERATE/VEERING WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT IN
   PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL STORM
   ORGANIZATION...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS.  THEREFORE...WE WILL
   CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT WHICH
   WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 09/05/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
   
   48639726 48599535 47139514 44699707 44559873 45009973
   46829832

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2146
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0444 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE...KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 052144Z - 052245Z
   
   A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL NEB
   AND NRN KS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 09/05/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
   
   42980003 42829738 38669868 38700134

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2147
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0713 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN/NRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 768...770...
   
   VALID 060013Z - 060215Z
   
   SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS ERN
   ND...NERN SD...AND WRN/NWRN MN THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE
   A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENT MID
   LEVEL WIND MAX OF 40-50KT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE
   DAKOTAS THIS EVENING. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS BEING LIFTED INTO A
   FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD INTENSE
   TSTMS. A BOW ECHO TRACKING NEWD AT OVER 40KT ACROSS SARGENT COUNTY
   ND WILL MOVE ACROSS RICHLAND COUNTY ND AND INTO WILKIN COUNTY MN
   BETWEEN 0030 AND 0100 UTC. FARTHER NORTH...A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS
   WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS EXTENDS FROM RED LAKE AND
   POLK COUNTIES IN NWRN MN SWWD TO CASS AND RANSOM COUNTIES IN SERN
   ND. SUPERCELL IN CNTRL CASS COUNTY ATTM APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT
   WITH SFC LOW ON A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS WRN MN.
   
   OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING BOTH SEVERE WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
   EAST ACROSS CLEARWATER...MAHNOMEN...CLAY...AND BECKER COUNTIES IN
   WRN MN.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 09/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
   
   43099656 43029944 45829879 45929895 48959790 48909444