Tropical Low encounters 2005 E. Atlantic unfavorability...

[Hyperstorm]

An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is just about to move offshore Africa. I've been watching this disturbance with interest over the past few days, and so far has shown signs of being very well defined with a vigorous MLC between 11-14N.

There is currently a rather deep trough located north of the Cape Verde islands over the eastern Atlantic. It appears that this trough will be far enough north to inhibit development in the very NEAR term as the outflow from this system ahead of it is still expanding.

This system looks like one of those systems that will become organized as soon as it hits the warm eastern Atlantic waters. I believe that that the system is vigorous enough and atmospheric conditions favorable enough for a tropical depression to develop during the next 24-48 hours.

If it develops, it will be uncertain the path it will take. With the current trough over the eastern Atlantic, the track looks to be WNW or even NW with time. However, it is still to early to say if this trough will steer the system shear it apart in the latter periods.

Let's continue to monitor it because we could very well end up having Nate out of this feature due to its very impressive signature...

EDIT: CHANGE TITLE OF THREAD TO ADAPT IT TO CURRENT SITUATION (2X)

[cycloneye]

Wow Hyperstorm when you are very bullish on a system we have to pay more close attention.You nailed it from the getgo what happened to 92L.

So what we are seeing now is not a squall line as it's the wave axis?

[Hyperstorm]

Wow Hyperstorm when you are very bullish on a system we have to pay more close attention.You nailed it from the getgo what happened to 92L.

So what we are seeing now is not a squall line as it's the wave axis?

Oh, thanks Cycloneye for your opinion. Remember that I am human and can/have made mistakes, but this system appears to have a fairly high chance according to the parameters I've mentioned.

No, it's not a squall line because the system is small enough. It is more like a MCS with very impressive outflow already.

It's one of the best looking waves I've seen so far this year with such favorable conditions. If the trough stays where it is, the system will likely not make it past tropical storm stage, but if it somehow manages to go with the flow toward the NW or sneak underneath (not likely) it could strengthen more...

[jimvb]

I took a look at this system in several models. GFS does not make much of it, but MM5 develops it into a developing system somewhere in the Atlantic. I remember that 92L was showing up early in GFDL and in GFS as a powerful hurricane, before it fizzled. This system does not seem to show that intensity early.

[cycloneye]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GOOY.html

Above is observations from Dakar,Senegal which shows clearly the wave passage as the winds changes direction and the pressures fall and go up again.

[cycloneye]

SAT Imagery


A good view of the strong system about to emerge completly West Africa.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE ADDED NEAR DAKAR S OF 22N MOVING W 10 KT WITH A
1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14.5N18W. THE WAVE HAD A 45 KT
JET ON THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM DAKAR WITH DEEP LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW
UP TO 850 MB. WINDS HAVE RECENTLY TURNED TO THE SSE AT DAKAR..
INDICATING THE LOW IS PROBABLY JUST W OF THAT LOCATION.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 15W-20W WITH
ONE LARGE TSTM NEAR 15.5N18.5W. THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING AN
ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATE TODAY
INTO MON.

8 AM Discussion

It's now completly out of Africa.Now let's see what will happen with it as it moves further west.

[Hyperstorm]

TROPICAL WAVE ADDED NEAR DAKAR S OF 22N MOVING W 10 KT WITH A
1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14.5N18W. THE WAVE HAD A 45 KT
JET ON THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM DAKAR WITH DEEP LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW
UP TO 850 MB. WINDS HAVE RECENTLY TURNED TO THE SSE AT DAKAR..
INDICATING THE LOW IS PROBABLY JUST W OF THAT LOCATION.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 15W-20W WITH
ONE LARGE TSTM NEAR 15.5N18.5W. THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING AN
ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATE TODAY
INTO MON. [/b]

8 AM Discussion

It's now completly out of Africa.Now let's see what will happen with it as it moves further west.

That is a very significant statement regarding this vigorous system. That means that it has a powerful circulation that extends all the way up the atmosphere. A jet of 35-45 kts is considered very impressive and many of the past CV storms have formed out of such systems.

Now that this low pressure system is completely off the coast, convection should redevelop today. In fact, there are signs that convection is beginning to refire at this time. As I mentioned yesterday, there is a vigorous trough located to the NW of the low. This trough should be far enough away for the next 2-3 days to allow for some development.

The earlier time frame of of potential development 24-48 hours could be extended to 36-60 hours from yesterday evening. That is that as early as tonight we could very well see an invest out of this system and later depression. If it develops, the system will likely be short-lived due to this vigorous trough, which could start to shear it after 2-3 days. It is unknown at this time if the shear will be strong enough to shear it apart or slow development.

I'll be watching...

[Hyperstorm]

Quick Update:

While UL conditions are expected to remain favorable in the near term, an unexpected dry air intrusion has pushed in from BEHIND the system. This dry air mass is pushing westward more rapidly than the disturbance itself and it is undercutting its inflow on the eastern side. Let's see how this affects or does not further affect the system, but my earlier time-frame of development wasn't counting on this intrusion from behind, which is kind of unusual.

Here's an interesting image:

[Hyperstorm]

Satellite images since yesterday reveal that the tropical low over the eastern Atlantic is slowly becoming better organized. Convection has developed near the possible center over the last 12 hours.

The system has definitely taken its time due to the dry air intrusion from behind early yesterday. Due to this, the low seems to have broadened out some, thus development has been slow. The dry air has since gone toward the NW and development should continue. I still think it has potential to become a tropical depression. However, it will have to do so very soon because there are strong UL southwesterlies ahead of it that will halt or even destroy its development.

Here's a very easy to read image depicting the area of low pressure and rather deep trough to its north and west:



Even though there are signs of the trough moving slowly westward and northward, the system might be moving fast enough to eventually catch it.

Watch for any further intense convection development for signs of organization...

[TampaFl]

[WindRunner]

I was wondering where this thread went . . .


With that circulation, it would have been upgraded if it had kept the convection it had when it came of the coast. Either way, this will be one to watch as this season appears to be a season of persistent circulations.

[cycloneye]

If it starts to organize more I can see invest 95L pretty soon.But as you said Hyperstorm that trough will play a key roll on how this system evolves in the future.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yes this is certainly going to be something to watch

[Steve H.]

Does anyone have a good satellite link. NRL is dead and ATWC seems to be gone??? What's up with that?? Any links ideas please.

[Scorpion]

Hopefully it doesn't go poof like 97L(was supposed to be huge).

[HURAKAN]

Hopefully it doesn't go poof like 97L(was supposed to be huge).

If it gets powerful, please stay in the open Atlantic Ocean. More devastation is not needed!

[Hyperstorm]

Here we go 2005...

As has been the norm this year, the tropical lows over the eastern Atlantic just aren't making much progress in this area of the basin. This is likely due to a combination of factors such as unusually higher wind-shear values for this area, unusually strong SAL outbreaks for so late in the year, and other still unknown factors.

This morning, the vigorous tropical low WSW of the Cape Verde islands has been no exception. It has not become better organized over the past 24 hours, even though it has tried to do so with scattered convection bursts intermittenly over the low pressure center.

I will just expect the system to continue to travel westward and (has been the case so far this year), monitor it once it moves past 40W for signs of organization.

The rather deep trough located to its west has been steadily moving westward, but it is not known how far westward it will move. This trough will play a key factor in its development.

**While we're talking about the eastern Atlantic and Africa...Another powerful wave is just about to move offshore. This one appears to have a low pressure center MUCH farther south near 10-11N. It will have to be monitored for good signs of development, but I won't even try to predict intensification once it hits the 2005 unfavorable waters of the far eastern Atlantic.**

[cycloneye]

Hyperstorm I made a poll with the question " Is the CV Season Over or Not"? The majority said no but I voted yes because of the distint factors such as the sal,troughs in the Eastern Atlantic.I still think that 50w and west from that longitud for waves to start to organize.

[WeatherEmperor]

Hyperstorm I made a poll with the question " Is the CV Season Over or Not"? The majority said no but I voted yes because of the distint factors such as the sal,troughs in the Eastern Atlantic.I still think that 50w and west from that longitud for waves to start to organize.

I agree with you Luis. Just gotta face the face and accept that this year just could end up not being a strong cape verde year. look for development closer to home.

<RICKY>