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SouthFloridawx
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#41 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 03, 2005 9:05 pm

shear is weakening....

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cjrciadt
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#42 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Sep 03, 2005 9:06 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:if the shear in that area really is around 10knots, then it has dropped down significantly because it was around 25-30knots just over 24 hours ago.

<RICKY>
It was close to 40knots 2 days ago, I dont expect it to become a named. However it could be a wave dumping much unneeded rain for S. FL in the coming week.
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#43 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 03, 2005 9:08 pm

cjrciadt wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:if the shear in that area really is around 10knots, then it has dropped down significantly because it was around 25-30knots just over 24 hours ago.

<RICKY>
It was close to 40knots 2 days ago, I dont expect it to become a named. However it could be a wave dumping much unneeded rain for S. FL in the coming week.


Careful. alot of us said the same about that wave that eventually became Katrina and look what happened. Not saying it will do the same, but everything especially in September needs to be watched.

<RICKY>
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#44 Postby truballer#1 » Sat Sep 03, 2005 9:09 pm

anything can happen in the tropics :D
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#45 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Sep 03, 2005 9:11 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
cjrciadt wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:if the shear in that area really is around 10knots, then it has dropped down significantly because it was around 25-30knots just over 24 hours ago.

<RICKY>
It was close to 40knots 2 days ago, I dont expect it to become a named. However it could be a wave dumping much unneeded rain for S. FL in the coming week.


Careful. alot of us said the same about that wave that eventually became Katrina and look what happened. Not saying it will do the same, but everything especially in September needs to be watched.

<RICKY>
Just being hopeful for the GOMERS, they dont need to hear about a "possible" low that "might" form into something. Though EX 92 maybe a different story.
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#46 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Sat Sep 03, 2005 9:12 pm

I think we will have an invest at least soon. When the visibles come back, it will get classified at this rate. lots of forcing now, 45kt gusts. LLC looks oblong, but given that it's a homebrew low, not surprising. If the LLC improves, and the convection is still near it in the morning, we will have something.


Probably give some insight at the 11:00 ??
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#47 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 03, 2005 9:41 pm

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER... EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA EASTWARD
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC... IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED TO THE
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THIS EVENING... BUT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
VERY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION... BUT COULD
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

10:30 PM TWO.
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#48 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Sat Sep 03, 2005 9:48 pm

Interesting stuff indeed as this system will need to be watched...
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#49 Postby CFL » Sat Sep 03, 2005 9:57 pm

Sounds like a potential East Coast event.
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#50 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Sat Sep 03, 2005 10:02 pm

I noticed a bit of a twist in the clouds about 300 miless NNE of the Dominican Republic north coast. The clouds where moving southward or it seemed like they where moving southward. Maybr something to watch indeed.
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#51 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 03, 2005 10:06 pm

I wont be surprised if an invest is up sometime on sunday.
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#52 Postby nequad » Sat Sep 03, 2005 11:25 pm

00Z Canadian sends this system to guess where in 120 hrs? I hope it's wrong.




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#53 Postby LaBreeze » Sat Sep 03, 2005 11:33 pm

(I'm afraid to ask) where nequad?
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#54 Postby nequad » Sat Sep 03, 2005 11:37 pm

^ The LA/MS coast. But let's pray it's wrong. It also has it as a weak system...FWIW.

The 00Z NOGAPS has a tropical cyclone not far off the carolina coast in 6 days.
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#55 Postby nequad » Sat Sep 03, 2005 11:44 pm

NOGAPS 132 HR...

[img][img][/img]
Last edited by nequad on Sat Sep 03, 2005 11:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#56 Postby LaBreeze » Sat Sep 03, 2005 11:45 pm

Hmmm, you bet prayers are being said. Thanks for replying.
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#57 Postby krysof » Sat Sep 03, 2005 11:48 pm

what will happen for the east coast
Last edited by krysof on Sat Sep 03, 2005 11:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#58 Postby nequad » Sat Sep 03, 2005 11:49 pm

144 HR NOGAPS...

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#59 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Sun Sep 04, 2005 12:17 am

Here is another look at the system east of the Bahamas...


http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
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#60 Postby scostorms » Sun Sep 04, 2005 12:26 am

Oh Lord, do the canes' take a usual track from that location in the Bahamas into the Gulf?
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