Invest 94L,Comments,Sat Pic,Models Thread

[jlauderdal]

Miami forecast discussion notes the possibility in the latest discussion:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
214 PM EDT sun Sep 4 2005


Discussion...big challenge this forecast is potential for
tropical development off the Southeast Florida coast over the next
48 hours. Models can't seem to get a very good handle on it making
late week forecasts even more uncertain. Have made no changes
beyond Tuesday night. In the shorter term...however...have boosted
probability of precipitation somewhat East Coast zones. As low tries to get organized over
the east coastal waters and/or Bahamas...precipitation will
continue redeveloping in the moist unstable air over the warm
ocean waters. The developing circulation will keep spreading the
precipitation across South Florida...especially the East Coast
zones. Daytime highs in those areas will likely struggle to reach
the upper 80s. Have maintained northeast flow across the region
for now.

I can tell you that it has been non-stop rain here today.
Thunderstorms off and on, LOUD booms!!!
Let's see what happens....

I was staying at the breakers in Palm beach friday and saturday and friday night there was good activitya nd this morning it rained really heavy, back in fll now and it is dry but cloudy.

[Nimbus]

On the animated radar you can see what looks like a circulation starting.

http://tinyurl.com/975v6

NHC said there was a broad 1011 surface low off the east coast of Florida.

Will take some time to develop though.

[DAVE440]

I dont see anything on that radar except showers/storms. Whats supposed to be there?

<RICKY>

I think you're supposed to see the Al Roker Grilled cheese sandwich face in there. Personally....I think its a bad likeness...

[WeatherEmperor]

I dont see anything on that radar except showers/storms. Whats supposed to be there?

<RICKY>

I think you're supposed to see the Al Roker Grilled cheese sandwich face in there. Personally....I think its a bad likeness...

LOL. Thats a good one

<RICKY>

[hiflyer]

think you may get a different view using the mlb radar..little bit of a difference.

[cycloneye]

rockyman it was a good thing that you created a new thread because there are separate systems in the western atlantic one east of Florida and the other NE of the Bahamas 93L.Also if an invest goes up for this area I will change the title of thread to say invest # Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread.

[rockyman]

rockyman it was a good thing that you created a new thread because there are separate systems in the western atlantic one east of Florida and the other NE of the Bahamas 93L.Also if an invest goes up for this area I will change the title of thread to say invest # Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread.

Thanks, Luis...I'm in Meridian, Mississippi for now...My home on Dauphin Island was pretty much destroyed by Katrina...so I'm keeping a nervous eye on this system in case it heads toward the Gomex.

[MortisFL]

The disturbance east of FL looks like its got the possibility. Hopefully nothing more than a rainmaker. If it sits off the coast for a few days it could be more.

Looking on satellite you can see how the storms die down, but quickly regenerate afterwards.

[WeatherEmperor]

The disturbance east of FL looks like its got the possibility. Hopefully nothing more than a rainmaker. If it sits off the coast for a few days it could be more.

Looking on satellite you can see how the storms die down, but quickly regenerate afterwards.

that is what scares me. Another poster showed a discussoin frm his local weather service area stating that the area of disturbed weather could be sitting out there for another 3 days until Wednesday or so.

<RICKY>

[MiamiensisWx]

On the animated radar you can see what looks like a circulation starting.

http://tinyurl.com/975v6

NHC said there was a broad 1011 surface low off the east coast of Florida.

Will take some time to develop though.

Agreed... it appears to be slightly attempting to develop a circulation. If it continues to move slowly, it might have a slightly better developmental chance, since upper-level winds may be becoming slightly more favorable little by little.

[Canelaw99]

We've had rain/t-storms all afternoon. As high as all of our canals are, and as saturated as the ground is, too many days like this will cause local flooding in these parts I'm afraid. I am noticing a slight twist in the storms to the east of though, that's for sure....

[nequad]

The UK...merges both systems...

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 25.4N 79.4W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 06.09.2005 25.4N 79.4W WEAK

12UTC 06.09.2005 25.6N 79.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.09.2005 26.9N 78.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.09.2005 28.5N 87.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.09.2005 30.0N 74.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 08.09.2005 33.2N 72.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.09.2005 34.7N 68.0W WEAK BECOMING EXTRA TROPICAL

12UTC 09.09.2005 EXTRA TROPICAL





NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 27.7N 69.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 05.09.2005 27.7N 69.1W WEAK

00UTC 06.09.2005 27.6N 70.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.09.2005 28.5N 69.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.09.2005 29.7N 70.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.09.2005 30.7N 71.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.09.2005 MERGES WITH ABOVE STORM

[cjrciadt]

An Invest is very possible, the locals mets expect it to stay off the course until Wed. (Keeping eyes peeled)

[N2FSU]

From the Tallahassee NWS Discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2005

AS WE ENTER THIS WORK WEEK...MAIN VIEW WILL BE SOUTH WITH DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE WRN BAHAMAS. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES. ON MONDAY...
NAM & GFS SIMILAR WITH KEEPING THE LOW OVER FAR SE FL...WITH
MOISTURE INFLUX OVER THAT AREA. PARTLY CLOUDY OVER SE PARTS OF CWA
WITH ISOLATED TO WDLY SCT SHOWERS...WHILE REST DRY. BUT INTO TUESDAY
MODELS DIVERGE. NAM WEAKENS LO...KEEPS IT OPEN & DRIFTS IT SW WITH
ALMOST ON LOCAL IMPACT...WHILE GFS CONTINUES CLOSED CIRCULATION &
DRIFTS IT MORE WEST TO ECNTRL FLA COAST TUES NIGHT. WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS...IT CRAWLS ACROSS PENINSULA INTO EXTREME ERN ERN GULF BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS VARY WITH DGEX KICKING
STRONGER LOW UP ATLC COAST AND ECMWF KEEPING WEAKER LOW IN SE GULF.
NHC SAID SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SYSTEM
SHOULD BE MONITORED. RIGHT NOW TOO MUCH MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR HI
CONFIDENCE BUT EITHER WAY MAIN LOCAL IMPACT...IF ANY...WOULD BE SE
BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY... ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE WATERS. CURRENT
GRIDS REFLECT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH SOME CLOUDS & LOW CHANCES
OF RAIN.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BIG QUESTION IN EARLY EXTENDED IS FINAL DISPOSITION OF LOW. WITH SO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...HAVE NOT GONE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED AS THE MODEL TRENDS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT. GFS DOES LIFT
THIS FEATURE W-NW TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY...THEN NEAR
THE FL BIG BEND ON FRIDAY. WINDS & SEAS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT UP A BIT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH & THIS SYSTEM TO SOUTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO...SE AL WILL
STILL BE THE DRIEST. REST OF TROPICS REMAIN QUITE.

[DAVE440]

I'm seeing it too now... Shows up a bit better here. Broad CCW circulation.

Hopefully its close enough that if it moves our way it wont have time to develop.

Still don't see anything in that earlier radar shot...but I think I did see Al Rokers face in a puffy raincloud earlier....LOL!

Some circulation noted in this Local Radar east of FL

http://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS?station=AMX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=50&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1&noclutter=1&lat=26.148130&lon=-80.227058&label=Lauderhill,+FL

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
MARIA... LOCATED ABOUT 530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.


SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED TODAY... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
NEARLY STATIONARY SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.



FORECASTER KNABB

[cinlfla]

Since they think that it could possibly develope do you think they will put up an invest for this.

[rockyman]

Looks like the system has moved to the next "stage"...NHC is now using the "D" word (depression)...the previous outlook only mentioned "development." I think the next step is to put up an invest and start the NHC models.

[WeatherEmperor]

Since they think that it could possibly develope do you think they will put up an invest for this.

i agree with you. i believe it will only be a matter of time before an invest is put up for this.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

Since they think that it could possibly develope do you think they will put up an invest for this.

Yes tonight or in the morning tommorow.