6pm GMT model guidance is slightly more aggressive than the latest discussion taking Maria to 98kts. Need to keep an eye on this one given the NHC track.
WHXX01 KWBC 031837
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (AL142005) ON 20050903 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050903 1800 050904 0600 050904 1800 050905 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.5N 54.4W 27.2N 55.6W 29.1N 56.7W 31.0N 57.7W
BAMM 25.5N 54.4W 27.2N 55.4W 29.2N 56.5W 31.2N 57.3W
A98E 25.5N 54.4W 27.7N 56.2W 29.8N 56.9W 31.6N 57.6W
LBAR 25.5N 54.4W 27.6N 55.5W 29.7N 56.6W 32.0N 57.3W
SHIP 60KTS 72KTS 83KTS 89KTS
DSHP 60KTS 72KTS 83KTS 89KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050905 1800 050906 1800 050907 1800 050908 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.8N 58.3W 36.1N 56.1W 38.9N 47.5W 40.0N 34.3W
BAMM 33.2N 57.8W 36.3N 56.5W 37.9N 51.9W 39.5N 46.4W
A98E 33.4N 57.7W 35.2N 54.9W 37.0N 48.3W 39.2N 39.7W
LBAR 34.1N 57.3W 38.2N 54.9W 40.6N 47.5W 41.2N 37.6W
SHIP 94KTS 98KTS 90KTS 81KTS
DSHP 94KTS 98KTS 90KTS 81KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.5N LONCUR = 54.4W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 23.0N LONM12 = 52.0W DIRM12 = 323DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 21.6N LONM24 = 50.2W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 60NM
Tropical Storm Maria Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143858
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
040235
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005
0300Z SUN SEP 04 2005
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 54.9W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 200SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 54.9W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 54.6W
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 28.6N 55.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 30.8N 56.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 33.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 35.2N 56.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 38.5N 53.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 41.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 42.5N 45.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 54.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z
FORECASTER KNABB
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005
0300Z SUN SEP 04 2005
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 54.9W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 200SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 54.9W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 54.6W
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 28.6N 55.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 30.8N 56.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 33.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 35.2N 56.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 38.5N 53.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 41.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 42.5N 45.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 54.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z
FORECASTER KNABB
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hurricanefloyd5
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cycloneye
- Admin
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT SEP 03 2005
...MARIA STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA...
AT 11 PM AST... 0300Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST OR ABOUT
695 MILES... 1115 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH... 22 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH... 110 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND MARIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES... 185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB... 29.38 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...27.1 N... 54.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.
FORECASTER KNABB
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT SEP 03 2005
...MARIA STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA...
AT 11 PM AST... 0300Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST OR ABOUT
695 MILES... 1115 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH... 22 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH... 110 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND MARIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES... 185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB... 29.38 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...27.1 N... 54.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST.
FORECASTER KNABB
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cycloneye
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753
WTNT44 KNHC 040300
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005
MARIA APPEARED TO BE ON THE CUSP OF HURRICANE STATUS EARLIER
TODAY... BUT CONVECTION HAS SINCE BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS VIGOROUS.
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED... ALTHOUGH MAYBE NOW
A LITTLE MORE ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB... AND BOTH
AGENCIES HAVE ANALYZED A DATA T NUMBER OF 3.5. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT. THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE TRYING TO
MAKE A COMEBACK AROUND THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO... SO
THE RECENT SPUTTERING MIGHT ONLY BE TEMPORARY.
THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 330/12 KT IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER
AND TO THE EAST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE STEERING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS BEING PROVIDED BY A LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF MARIA. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS TO BUILD NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS... RESULTING IN ONLY A GRADUAL BEND IN THE TRACK TO THE NORTH.
THEREAFTER... A MIDDLE LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND ERODE THE RIDGE... AND ACCELERATE MARIA NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY
FROM NORTH AMERICA. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
BEFORE THE RECURVATURE... BUT AS USUAL DIFFER IN THE SUBSEQUENT
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND
NOGAPS MODELS WHICH DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM THAN THE FASTER GFS
THAT KEEPS THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA SEEMINGLY TOO WEAK. THIS IS
JUST A HAIR TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH ABOUT 48
HOURS AND IS FASTER AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
MARIA HAD BEEN STRENGTHENING TODAY WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT... BENEATH A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THAT IS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BERMUDA AND A
LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
IT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THIS RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...
AND SINCE THE SSTS WILL REMAIN GREATER THAN 28C DURING THIS
PERIOD... SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED... BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS BEFORE DUE TO THE RECENT LEVELLING OFF AND LESS BULLISH
GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS AT 80 KT... WHICH IS JUST A
LITTLE LESS THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND FAVORS THE
GFDL WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. AFTER RECURVATURE BEGINS... MARIA
IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH
OF THE RIDGE. THE INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR COMBINED WITH COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADY WEAKENING.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0300Z 27.1N 54.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 28.6N 55.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 30.8N 56.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 33.0N 57.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 35.2N 56.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 38.5N 53.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 41.0N 50.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 42.5N 45.0W 55 KT
WTNT44 KNHC 040300
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005
MARIA APPEARED TO BE ON THE CUSP OF HURRICANE STATUS EARLIER
TODAY... BUT CONVECTION HAS SINCE BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS VIGOROUS.
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED... ALTHOUGH MAYBE NOW
A LITTLE MORE ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB... AND BOTH
AGENCIES HAVE ANALYZED A DATA T NUMBER OF 3.5. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT. THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE TRYING TO
MAKE A COMEBACK AROUND THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO... SO
THE RECENT SPUTTERING MIGHT ONLY BE TEMPORARY.
THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 330/12 KT IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER
AND TO THE EAST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE STEERING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS BEING PROVIDED BY A LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF MARIA. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS TO BUILD NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS... RESULTING IN ONLY A GRADUAL BEND IN THE TRACK TO THE NORTH.
THEREAFTER... A MIDDLE LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND ERODE THE RIDGE... AND ACCELERATE MARIA NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY
FROM NORTH AMERICA. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
BEFORE THE RECURVATURE... BUT AS USUAL DIFFER IN THE SUBSEQUENT
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND
NOGAPS MODELS WHICH DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM THAN THE FASTER GFS
THAT KEEPS THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA SEEMINGLY TOO WEAK. THIS IS
JUST A HAIR TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH ABOUT 48
HOURS AND IS FASTER AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
MARIA HAD BEEN STRENGTHENING TODAY WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT... BENEATH A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THAT IS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BERMUDA AND A
LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
IT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THIS RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...
AND SINCE THE SSTS WILL REMAIN GREATER THAN 28C DURING THIS
PERIOD... SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED... BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS BEFORE DUE TO THE RECENT LEVELLING OFF AND LESS BULLISH
GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS AT 80 KT... WHICH IS JUST A
LITTLE LESS THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND FAVORS THE
GFDL WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. AFTER RECURVATURE BEGINS... MARIA
IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH
OF THE RIDGE. THE INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR COMBINED WITH COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADY WEAKENING.
FORECASTER KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0300Z 27.1N 54.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 28.6N 55.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 30.8N 56.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 33.0N 57.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 35.2N 56.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 38.5N 53.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 41.0N 50.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 42.5N 45.0W 55 KT
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James
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493
WTNT44 KNHC 040834
TCDAT4
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005
THE INNER CORE CONVECTION OF MARIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING AS REVEALED IN CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A 03/2333Z SSMI OVERPASS AND A 04/0152Z AMSU OVERPASS BOTH
INDICATED NEARLY CLOSED EYEWALL FEATURES...AND THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN DEPTH AND ORGANIZATION
SINCE THEN...WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER. A T4.0/65
SATELLITE ESTIMATE WAS PROVIDED BY BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ODT
VALUES RANGE BETWEEN T4.3 TO T4.5. THEREFORE...MARIA HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2005 SEASON.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/12. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A LARGE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG 34N LATITUDE.
AFTER MARIA REACHES THE RIDGE AXIS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...GRADUAL
RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...MORE RAPID MOTION IS FORECAST AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST
AND ACCELERATES MARIA TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND MARIA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND OVER SSTS
OF AT LEAST 28C FOR THE NEXT 36-42 HOURS. AS A RESULT...SOME MODEST
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SMALL INNER CORE WIND FIELD AND EYE NOTED IN
MICROWAVE DATA...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MARIA REACHING 90 KT.
BY 48 HOURS...THOUGH...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER STEADILY
COOLER WATER WHILE ENCOUNTERING INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OF 30-40 KT...WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT STEADY WEAKENING. BY 96
HOURS...MUCH COOLER WATER AND INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0900Z 28.0N 55.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 29.5N 55.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 31.6N 56.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 33.4N 56.7W 80 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 35.2N 55.9W 75 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 38.7N 51.8W 65 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 41.0N 47.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/0600Z 42.5N 42.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
WTNT44 KNHC 040834
TCDAT4
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005
THE INNER CORE CONVECTION OF MARIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING AS REVEALED IN CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A 03/2333Z SSMI OVERPASS AND A 04/0152Z AMSU OVERPASS BOTH
INDICATED NEARLY CLOSED EYEWALL FEATURES...AND THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN DEPTH AND ORGANIZATION
SINCE THEN...WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER. A T4.0/65
SATELLITE ESTIMATE WAS PROVIDED BY BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ODT
VALUES RANGE BETWEEN T4.3 TO T4.5. THEREFORE...MARIA HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2005 SEASON.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/12. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A LARGE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG 34N LATITUDE.
AFTER MARIA REACHES THE RIDGE AXIS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...GRADUAL
RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...MORE RAPID MOTION IS FORECAST AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST
AND ACCELERATES MARIA TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND MARIA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND OVER SSTS
OF AT LEAST 28C FOR THE NEXT 36-42 HOURS. AS A RESULT...SOME MODEST
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SMALL INNER CORE WIND FIELD AND EYE NOTED IN
MICROWAVE DATA...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MARIA REACHING 90 KT.
BY 48 HOURS...THOUGH...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER STEADILY
COOLER WATER WHILE ENCOUNTERING INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OF 30-40 KT...WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT STEADY WEAKENING. BY 96
HOURS...MUCH COOLER WATER AND INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0900Z 28.0N 55.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 29.5N 55.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 31.6N 56.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 33.4N 56.7W 80 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 35.2N 55.9W 75 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 38.7N 51.8W 65 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 41.0N 47.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/0600Z 42.5N 42.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
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James
- Category 5
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- Location: Gloucestershire, England
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165
WTNT34 KNHC 040840
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2005
...MARIA BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST OR ABOUT 645
MILES...1040 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED BY TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...MARIA SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA AND ONLY
POSE A THREAT TO SHIPPING INTERESTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES... 20 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...28.0 N... 55.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
WTNT34 KNHC 040840
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2005
...MARIA BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST OR ABOUT 645
MILES...1040 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED BY TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...MARIA SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA AND ONLY
POSE A THREAT TO SHIPPING INTERESTS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES... 20 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...28.0 N... 55.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37988
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2005
...MARIA CONTINUES MOVING OVER OPEN WATERS...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT 605
MILES... 970 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED BY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...28.8 N... 55.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2005
...MARIA CONTINUES MOVING OVER OPEN WATERS...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT 605
MILES... 970 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED BY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...28.8 N... 55.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
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#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37988
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT
4.0...CORRESPONDING TO A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KT. MARIA HAS
FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...PARTICULARLY IN
CHANNELS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THE HURRICANE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE WARM WATERS SO STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY UNTIL
WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR IN 48 HOURS OR SO. IN 4-5 DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT MARIA WILL BE TRANSFORMING INTO A VIGOROUS
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...340/11. MARIA IS
BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC.
A 500 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND APPROACH MARIA'S LONGITUDE WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE FORWARD SPEED AT 3-5 DAYS PREDICTED BY THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL
TRACK MODELS. SOME GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFS...SHOW MARIA OR ITS
EXTRATROPICAL VERSION BECOMING WELL EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD. OTHER MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE TROUGH COULD BYPASS THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
A COMPROMISE OF THESE POSSIBILITIES AND SHOWS NO ACCELERATION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST TRACK.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/1500Z 28.8N 55.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 30.3N 56.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 32.3N 56.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 34.1N 56.1W 80 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 35.9N 54.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 39.0N 50.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 41.0N 45.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/1200Z 42.5N 40.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT
4.0...CORRESPONDING TO A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KT. MARIA HAS
FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...PARTICULARLY IN
CHANNELS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THE HURRICANE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE WARM WATERS SO STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY UNTIL
WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR IN 48 HOURS OR SO. IN 4-5 DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT MARIA WILL BE TRANSFORMING INTO A VIGOROUS
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...340/11. MARIA IS
BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC.
A 500 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND APPROACH MARIA'S LONGITUDE WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE FORWARD SPEED AT 3-5 DAYS PREDICTED BY THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL
TRACK MODELS. SOME GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFS...SHOW MARIA OR ITS
EXTRATROPICAL VERSION BECOMING WELL EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD. OTHER MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE TROUGH COULD BYPASS THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
A COMPROMISE OF THESE POSSIBILITIES AND SHOWS NO ACCELERATION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST TRACK.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/1500Z 28.8N 55.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 30.3N 56.1W 70 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 32.3N 56.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 34.1N 56.1W 80 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 35.9N 54.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 39.0N 50.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 41.0N 45.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/1200Z 42.5N 40.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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#neversummer
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
MARIA'S REMARKS:
The 10th time that the "M" letter is used (Martha 69, Marco 90, Marco 96, Marilyn 95, Michelle 01, Michael 00, Mindy 03, Mitch 98, Matthew 04).
The 7th time that the "M" letter becomes a hurricane (Martha 69, Marco 96, Marilyn 95, Michelle 01, Michael 00, Mitch 98).
The easternmost "M" named system, in formation.
The 10th time that the "M" letter is used (Martha 69, Marco 90, Marco 96, Marilyn 95, Michelle 01, Michael 00, Mindy 03, Mitch 98, Matthew 04).
The 7th time that the "M" letter becomes a hurricane (Martha 69, Marco 96, Marilyn 95, Michelle 01, Michael 00, Mitch 98).
The easternmost "M" named system, in formation.
Last edited by HURAKAN on Sun Sep 04, 2005 12:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143858
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
389
WTNT24 KNHC 042031
TCMAT4
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005
2100Z SUN SEP 04 2005
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 56.1W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 200SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 56.1W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 55.9W
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.7N 56.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 33.3N 56.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.7N 55.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.8N 54.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 38.5N 51.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 41.0N 46.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 43.5N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 56.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT24 KNHC 042031
TCMAT4
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142005
2100Z SUN SEP 04 2005
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 56.1W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 200SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 56.1W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 55.9W
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.7N 56.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 33.3N 56.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.7N 55.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.8N 54.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 38.5N 51.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 41.0N 46.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 43.5N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 56.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z
FORECASTER PASCH
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143858
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
162
WTNT34 KNHC 042032
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2005
...MARIA STRENGTHENS...THREAT TO SHIPPING...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST OR ABOUT 530 MILES...
855 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...30.3 N... 56.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT34 KNHC 042032
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2005
...MARIA STRENGTHENS...THREAT TO SHIPPING...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST OR ABOUT 530 MILES...
855 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...30.3 N... 56.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143858
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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390
WTNT44 KNHC 042031
TCDAT4
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005
AN EYE HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGES TODAY...AND DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS NOW SUPPORT 75-KT WINDS. SINCE THE HURRICANE HAS
WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW...A WELL-DEFINED INNER
CORE...AND IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
SEEMS LIKELY. BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND...MARIA IS LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN TO AT LEAST CATEGORY 2 STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
I HAVE BLENDED THE SHIPS AND GFDL OUTPUT AS GUIDANCE FOR THE WIND
SPEED FORECAST. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...SO WEAKENING IS
LIKELY TO BE UNDERWAY BY THEN. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
MARIA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND LOSING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF MARIA WILL BE RATHER LARGE AND VIGOROUS
FOR A WHILE.
THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 340/12...PERHAPS 13 KT IN THE
SHORTER TERM. THE GENERAL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE
SAME. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 70W WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED NEAR THE LONGITUDE OF MARIA IN ABOUT
48 HOURS. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN
NORTHWARD...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. IN SPITE OF THE FASTER INITIAL
MOTION...THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SLOWER THAN IN
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
CONSENSUS.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 30.3N 56.1W 75 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 31.7N 56.5W 85 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 33.3N 56.5W 90 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 34.7N 55.9W 90 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 35.8N 54.9W 80 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 38.5N 51.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 41.0N 46.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/1800Z 43.5N 40.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
WTNT44 KNHC 042031
TCDAT4
HURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005
AN EYE HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGES TODAY...AND DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS NOW SUPPORT 75-KT WINDS. SINCE THE HURRICANE HAS
WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW...A WELL-DEFINED INNER
CORE...AND IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
SEEMS LIKELY. BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND...MARIA IS LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN TO AT LEAST CATEGORY 2 STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
I HAVE BLENDED THE SHIPS AND GFDL OUTPUT AS GUIDANCE FOR THE WIND
SPEED FORECAST. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...SO WEAKENING IS
LIKELY TO BE UNDERWAY BY THEN. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
MARIA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND LOSING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF MARIA WILL BE RATHER LARGE AND VIGOROUS
FOR A WHILE.
THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 340/12...PERHAPS 13 KT IN THE
SHORTER TERM. THE GENERAL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE
SAME. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 70W WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED NEAR THE LONGITUDE OF MARIA IN ABOUT
48 HOURS. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN
NORTHWARD...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. IN SPITE OF THE FASTER INITIAL
MOTION...THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SLOWER THAN IN
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
CONSENSUS.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 30.3N 56.1W 75 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 31.7N 56.5W 85 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 33.3N 56.5W 90 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 34.7N 55.9W 90 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 35.8N 54.9W 80 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 38.5N 51.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 41.0N 46.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/1800Z 43.5N 40.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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