Invest 93L=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It has becoming better organized. With wraping around the northern side. The system should be a tropical depression very soon.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Unfortunately with so many invests things could likely get really busy
over the next few days...yikes!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is a fish. So let it be named.

[cycloneye]

This is a fish. So let it be named.

Not so fast saying fish as Bermuda may be seeing it or very close.

[artist]

is this the area directly off the se coast of FL.? this is truly getting confusing.

[cycloneye]

is this the area directly off the se coast of FL.? this is truly getting confusing.

No 94 L is the one just off Florida.This is 93L which is located South of Bermuda.To many it may be confusing as both systems are relativly close one to another.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A blow up of conveciton has formed right over the LLC. The system seems now to be organized enough to be upgraded. But thats up to the Nhc.

[WindRunner]

Yeah, they'll wait til at least 5am, maybe 11am before upgrading it. It's heading away from land and they'll want to see if that blowup persists.

[fci]

If you look at the model plotter on:
http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

This is already referred to as TD 14.

Unless I am mistaken...

[Nimbus]

I'm sure they would like to get a better handle on the building ridge so they can initialize the track correctly.

Almost looks like the ridge is trapping 93 already.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It would need to be tropical depression 15. Because Maria was 14. Even so I think they should be upgraded based on the fact it is or not. Remember this is science not a cheese burger house.

[WeatherEmperor]

It would need to be tropical depression 15. Because Maria was 14. Even so I think they should be upgraded based on the fact it is or not. Remember this is science not a cheese burger house.

cheeseburger house. LOL!

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
MARIA... LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA IS
DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS
CONCENTRATED BUT NOT YET WELL ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT... AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.



FORECASTER KNABB


10:30 PM TWO for 93L.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A small put very well defined LLC has just popped out. I did not think its was this well defined yet. I guest when Maria moves out the convection should start forming over it. I think this will be nate.

[nequad]

That center also appears to be moving NW or NNW...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC is looking quite strong at this time. But the shear off of hurricane Maria is shearing the convection to its south. As it moves to the northwest it should become more favable. I would say just for its LLC and having deep convection to the south. Shows that it is now should be upgraded to a tropical depression.

The system off Florida doe's not impress me at this minute. Yes there is a broad area of low pressure. With a area of convection. But development should be slow. Models show some development with this system.

Maria is likely bombing. In she is developing a pin hole eye. With good outflow. I expect her to become a major durning the next few days.

[P.K.]

05/0645 UTC 28.1N 67.0W T1.5/1.5 93

WHXX01 KWBC 050714
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20050905 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050905 0600 050905 1800 050906 0600 050906 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.8N 66.9W 28.5N 67.2W 28.9N 67.7W 29.1N 68.4W
BAMM 27.8N 66.9W 28.7N 67.1W 29.0N 67.6W 29.0N 68.3W
A98E 27.8N 66.9W 28.5N 67.4W 29.0N 67.5W 29.0N 67.0W
LBAR 27.8N 66.9W 28.6N 66.8W 29.5N 66.8W 30.0N 66.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050907 0600 050908 0600 050909 0600 050910 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.3N 69.1W 30.4N 70.3W 33.2N 67.2W 34.6N 55.8W
BAMM 28.9N 69.2W 29.4N 71.1W 31.4N 71.8W 33.9N 69.8W
A98E 28.9N 66.7W 28.7N 67.3W 30.0N 67.2W 32.8N 62.2W
LBAR 30.3N 67.0W 31.4N 67.4W 33.4N 65.7W 37.0N 61.1W
SHIP 46KTS 57KTS 62KTS 59KTS
DSHP 46KTS 57KTS 62KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.8N LONCUR = 66.9W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 26.7N LONM12 = 66.5W DIRM12 = 5DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 25.8N LONM24 = 66.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N67W OR ABOUT 300 NM SSW OF
BERMUDA MOVING N 5-10 KT. THIS LOW IS BENEATH THE E SIDE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90
NM OF LINE 24N65W-27N67.5W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER A BROADER AREA FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN
62W-70W.




From 8 AM Discussion.

[cycloneye]

05/1145 UTC 28.3N 67.4W T1.5/1.5 93 -- Atlantic Ocean

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20050905 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050905 1200 050906 0000 050906 1200 050907 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.4N 67.4W 29.0N 67.9W 29.3N 68.6W 29.6N 69.4W
BAMM 28.4N 67.4W 28.9N 67.9W 29.1N 68.8W 29.1N 69.6W
A98E 28.4N 67.4W 29.4N 68.2W 30.3N 68.3W 30.9N 68.3W
LBAR 28.4N 67.4W 29.5N 67.6W 30.2N 67.8W 30.7N 68.1W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050907 1200 050908 1200 050909 1200 050910 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.9N 70.1W 31.4N 70.1W 32.8N 65.0W 34.2N 53.3W
BAMM 29.0N 70.7W 29.5N 72.5W 30.5N 73.9W 32.2N 73.9W
A98E 31.0N 68.2W 31.7N 67.0W 32.7N 63.6W 35.3N 55.4W
LBAR 30.9N 68.4W 32.2N 68.7W 34.3N 66.2W 38.7N 58.8W
SHIP 49KTS 59KTS 64KTS 61KTS
DSHP 49KTS 59KTS 64KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.4N LONCUR = 67.4W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 27.3N LONM12 = 66.5W DIRM12 = 342DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 26.3N LONM24 = 66.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



12:00z Model Guidance