Invest 92L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

cajungal · #301 Postby **cajungal** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 10:55 am

spinfan4eva wrote:Here it is for those of us who need pictures

Uggh. Why did I bother even clicking on this thread? Am I that addicted? We sure don't need another GOM threat. Not even a tropical depression.

no advance · #302 Postby **no advance** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 12:01 pm

I believe this system will develop into a td the next 24 hrs. Look at the rambis site they have a floater on it. Around 14n I believe. Got to go to work.

Swimdude · #303 Postby **Swimdude** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 12:03 pm

Oh dear, this is a very, very bad track.

We've already had Dennis and Emily form quite near where 92L is... Thus, it's perfectly possible that we have a third form there this season... Oh dear.

#304 Postby **Windtalker1** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 1:56 pm

1st tracks are always a little further south...this could very well head toward the Fl east Coast.

MortisFL · #305 Postby **MortisFL** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 3:29 pm

Looks like 92L is going to be getting into better conditions for development. Shear is decreasing and the wave has still survived (all be it barely) as it continues to near the caribbean islands.

As said before, TD #10...#12 (Katrina) looked dead for days as it tracked slowly towards FL's east coast. Bottom line is, you can't rule out 92L until the wave is completely gone.

#306 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 3:37 pm

Windtalker1 wrote:1st tracks are always a little further south...this could very well head toward the Fl east Coast.

are you talking about 92L? If so, how could it get to the FL east coast?

<RICKY>

#307 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 6:00 pm

#308 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 6:00 pm

#309 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 7:18 pm

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WESTERN FRINGE
OF INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY
PROBABLY INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 50W-53W.

From the 8 PM Discussion.

no advance · #310 Postby **no advance** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 8:46 pm

Still alot of hrs to go. Little bleak looking so far.

truballer#1 · #311 Postby **truballer#1** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 8:47 pm

can't forget about invest92l

#312 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 9:48 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
MARIA... LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE... LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES... IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB

10:30 PM TWO for 92L.

#313 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:09 am

W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 19N MOVING W
15-20 KT WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. WAVE IS
BENEATH THE BASE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THUS MOVING THE CONVECTION TO
THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W TO 19N55W.

From 8 AM Discussion.

Scattered Showers will arrive from tonight going into tuesday at the lesser antilles and by tuesday night into wednesday for Puerto Rico,the BVI and USVI.But I dont see development from this but anyway I am watching it just in case it starts to organize.

#314 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 2:46 pm

This morning I looked at 92, and assumed it was dropped, since the last model runs were 17xx yesterday. Is this the case?

#315 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 2:48 pm

bvigal wrote:This morning I looked at 92, and assumed it was dropped, since the last model runs were 17xx yesterday. Is this the case?

They ran at 12:00z this morning but this afternoon no run.But prepare for some rain from the wave for tommorow,tommorow night at the BVI.

#316 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:06 pm

We could use some rain. I know you had more than enough in SJU/PR those several days with the precurser to Katrina. We really only had one good day/night of rain, and it's dry as a bone here now.

Per 92: I'm more concerned about any possible sudden, unexpected wind gusts. Any thoughts on that?

#317 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:08 pm

Yes we can espect some wind gusting around 25-30 mph in the stronger thunderstorms that will pass thru as the wave axis passes.

MortisFL · #318 Postby **MortisFL** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:25 pm

18z NAM coming out...not that its known as a great model, but showing increased convection in 50+ hrs...south of Haiti and PR (92L) as what could be a developing system if it holds together towards the central/western caribbean.

#319 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 4:03 pm

so is it just that sfwmd has dropped mapping 92? all except the nhc are 04/0700z (yesterday before dawn), nhc is 04/1700z?????

Where can I see any new model runs containing 92? even if they don't thnk it will be a STORM in 48hrs, they could have kept the models running, don't you think?? :?:

#320 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 4:48 pm

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES... ACCOMPANIED
BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

5:30 PM TWO for 92L.

Invest 92L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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