Invest 93L=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#121 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:30 am

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 051215Z SEP 05//
WTNT90 KNGU 051245
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 28.0N 67.0W TO 31.0N 69.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 28N 67W IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 08KTS. SCATTEROMETRY WINDS INDICATE A SURFACE
CIRCULATION NEAR 27N 67W WITH WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CENTER. THIS CIRCULATION HAS PERSISTED FOR 24 HOURS
AND CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE ARE FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. AN ANTI-CYCLONIC AT 200MB, WEAK WIND
SHEAR, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANALYZED FROM SATELLITE DATA IS 86F(30C).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR EXPIRE
BY 061245Z SEP 05.//

This is the status before it's upgraded to a TD.

WindRunner · #122 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:34 am

Say hello, soon-to-be Nate!

#123 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:34 am

#124 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:21 am

WindRunner wrote:Say hello, soon-to-be Nate!

Guess that means that Florida will get Ophelia?

#125 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:23 am

Let's not jump to conclusions about names to systems as they still are not depressions.

#126 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:07 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
MARIA... LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

#127 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:21 am

93L seems to have an exposed low level circulation and 94L looks to be becoming better organized.

#128 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 1:05 pm

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED 295 NM SSW OF
BERMUDA NEAR 28N67W. A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SE OF
THE CENTER DURING MOST OF THE MORNING BUT RECENTLY THIS BAND HAS
DETACHED AND A NEW CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE
CENTER. THE LOW IS LOCATED ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
SO IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF SOME N/NWLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS A NEW UPPER ANTICYCLONE MAY BE TRYING TO FORM OVER THE
SYSTEM WITH LESSENING SHEAR...SO TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS.

2 PM Discussion.

nequad · #129 Postby **nequad** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 1:29 pm

I'd have to say that this system is very near depression status as we speak.

BensonTCwatcher · #130 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 1:33 pm

Not much valuable in the way of guidance yet. A lot of folks saying fish, but it's slipping a bit SW and drifting now. Not totally conviced we will see a NE track later or not.

nequad · #131 Postby **nequad** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 1:36 pm

^ certainly can't say for sure. It looks to get blocked initially...then might have another chance to curve seaward in a few days. If it misses that chance then it could sit and fester for a while...

#132 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 1:38 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NONAME at NRL so I will lock this thread and open a TD15 thread.

Invest 93L=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Who is online