Invest 94L,Comments,Sat Pic,Models Thread

#221 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:43 am

Dean4Storms wrote:HPC is going with the GFS and GFDL solutions this AM. They have the low headed for New Orleans!

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9lh.gif

ugh!!! bring us some good news next time!! lol

hicksta · #222 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:53 am

#223 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:54 am

NWS MOBILE/PENSACOLA AFD

.LONG TERM...NOT A LOT OF CHANGER HERE EITHER...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
PERFORMING PRETTY WELL RECENTLY. COULD FIND NO COMPELLING REASONS TO
DISAGREE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TOWARD THE TROPICS. THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING...WITH
SEVERAL AREAS THAT WARRANT SOME ATTENTION. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE DRIER THAN NORMAL WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
THE WORK WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT SO NO SIGN OF ANY ORGANIZED WEATHER.

baitism · #224 Postby **baitism** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:56 am

Storm is definently getting its act together. Outflow and banding are improving.

KatDaddy · #225 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:57 am

It was earlier model runs. I think I am hoping this wont be another GOM threat more being logical and looking at the upcoming pattern.

#226 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 12:00 pm

Just watched WFTV, they keep it of the coast till Thursday moving due N. never crossing FL!!!!!!! They will continue to watch it, however they were wrong with Katrina too.

rockyman · #227 Postby **rockyman** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 12:05 pm

cjrciadt wrote:Just watched WFTV, they keep it of the coast till Thursday moving due N. never crossing FL!!!!!!! They will continue to watch it, however they were wrong with Katrina too.

Any local met showing "their own maps" should just have a big cloud over Florida with a note "Watching Tropics"...any met show an "L" moving in any particular direction is doing a real disservice to viewers...since many people will watch this ONE forecast and then turn off the TV.

carve · #228 Postby **carve** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 12:12 pm

Just east of Fl..looking pretty impressive...much better organized today..what are the chances of this getting into the GOM??

#229 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 12:14 pm

carve wrote:Just east of Fl..looking pretty impressive...much better organized today..what are the chances of this getting into the GOM??

To early to say, but gfdl, gfs, some other models, and the hpc think the chances are pretty good

carve · #230 Postby **carve** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 12:18 pm

Ok..TY..We really don't need another GOM threat..let's just watch and see!! I will be going down to the southeren states with the men's ministry group from my church to help out any way we can..

carve · #231 Postby **carve** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 12:18 pm

Ok..TY..We really don't need another GOM threat..let's just watch and see!! I will be going down to the southeren states with the men's ministry group from my church to help out any way we can..

#232 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 12:20 pm

KatDaddy wrote:It was earlier model runs. I think I am hoping this wont be another GOM threat more being logical and looking at the upcoming pattern.

u said in your original post that most models today were showing this so now you have ne totally confused as to exactly what models and when?

KatDaddy · #233 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 12:31 pm

The PCBeach models are the latest. 2 into the GOM, 1 across FLA, and 2 near and along the SE US Coast. Scott had a posted a previous freebie model map which showed many SE US solutions.

KatDaddy · #234 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 12:32 pm

Sorry for the confusion jlauderdal

#235 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 12:47 pm

12z GFS same solution, toward LA but does not get real bullish on it.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #236 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 1:02 pm

Wind gusts to 45 mph just hit my area in a band of storms
in association with 94L that crossed the state.

MortisFL · #237 Postby **MortisFL** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 1:04 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:12z GFS same solution, toward LA but does not get real bullish on it.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

18z GFDL just came out...dissipating the system as it nears south FL.

#238 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 1:04 pm

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 26N79W DRIFTING TO THE
NW. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOT THAT WELL-DEFINED IN MIAMI
RADAR IMAGERY BUT THE OVERALL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE BECOMING
A LITTLE STRONGER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION IS
BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONSOLIDATED ESPECIALLY N OF THE CENTER
AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 25 KT AT FREEPORT AND SETTLEMENT
POINT BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-28N
BETWEEN 74W-80W INCLUDING OVER GREAT ABACO...GRAND BAHAMA...
ANDROS...AND NEW PROVIDENCE ISLANDS AND MOVING WWD TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA COAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NW BENEATH AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND BE NEAR OR OVER FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE NEXT 36 HRS IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER

2 PM Discussion.

Scorpion · #239 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 1:06 pm

Getting absolutely nothing here. Figures.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #240 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 1:08 pm

Scorpion wrote:Getting absolutely nothing here. Figures.

Away from rainbands you won't get much, but in the rainbands you
will likely see TS gusts.

This thing just has to be a depression in the making.
I say depression with sustained 35 gusts to 45 by 5 PM.

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