Tallahassee AFD for Monday afternoon

[Dean4Storms]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2005

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVELS DOMINATED BY A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS ALIGNED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TO EAST OF
THE FL STRAITS WAS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS GENERATING SUSTAINED EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS, ESPECIALLY OVER
OUR GA AND FL BIG BEND ZONES. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
EARLIER BUT WILL BE CANCELLED AS WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA.
WILL MENTION CAUTION ON AREA LAKES UNTIL SUNSET TODAY THOUGH.
OTHERWISE, SKIES RANGED FROM MOSTLY SUNNY NORTHWEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SOUTHEAST. TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, NORTHEAST
WINDS WERE AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY, AND SEAS WERE 6-7 FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MIGRATING
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG, WHILE LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF FL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDING PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL
GRADUALLY RISE, BUT REMAIN BELOW TWO INCHES. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWFA WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE VALUES WILL BE HIGHER. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPS FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...MAIN FEATURE FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER
WILL BE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF FL. THE LATEST GFS TAKES THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FL THURSDAY, THEN NORTHWEST
THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
THIS WEEKEND. CONVERSELY, THE EUROPEAN MODELS TAKE THIS SYSTEM
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND LACK OF SIG
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND THIS FORECAST WILL
BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE. OTHERWISE, LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE PER SOUNDING PRECIP WATER PROGS. THIS RESULTS IN A
POP GRADIENT OF 20-30 PERCENT WEST AND 30-40 PERCENT EAST. THESE
VALUES ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW
END ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS LATER
IN THE WEEK, WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, FOCUS WILL BE ON
THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM, WILL
TREND TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION, WHICH MAINTAINS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CENTER EMERGING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

[N2FSU]

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[dixiebreeze]

Ouch!