Invest 94L,Comments,Sat Pic,Models Thread

vaffie · #261 Postby **vaffie** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:14 pm

jlauderdal wrote: Nice Work GFS.

I agree. Good job. :lol:

But next time, predict something good.

artist · #262 Postby **artist** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:15 pm

do a 10 loop - definate twisting observed - is it at the lower levels?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

also pressure is down to 29.78 near Key WEst-
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KEYW.html

Nassau showing wsw winds -
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MYNN.html

vaffie · #263 Postby **vaffie** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:22 pm

artist wrote:also pressure is down to 29.78 near Key WEst-
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KEYW.html

Nassau showing wsw winds -
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MYNN.html

The Nassau conditions are significant, but the Key West data is 8 days old. :wink:

artist · #264 Postby **artist** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:26 pm

man - I can't win today with Key West! :eek:

sorry about that!

MortisFL · #265 Postby **MortisFL** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:29 pm

18z NAM keeps 94L just off FL's east coast beyond 70 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

#266 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:33 pm

MortisFL wrote:18z NAM keeps 94L just off FL's east coast beyond 70 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

keeps if off the coast for like 3 more days. how long is this 94L just gonna sit there?

<RICKY>

MortisFL · #267 Postby **MortisFL** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:37 pm

NAM isnt the best model by any means but interesting non-the-less. It also takes the t-storms in the western gulf and makes it a low pressure system headed towards Brownsville TX. area.

#268 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:39 pm

MortisFL wrote:NAM isnt the best model by any means but interesting non-the-less. It also takes the t-storms in the western gulf and makes it a low pressure system headed towards Brownsville TX. area.

stormcenter and katdaddy better be on the lookout based on your model analysis.

#269 Postby **fci** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:47 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Consistent gusts of 25-33 mph now occuring. HOW THE HECK IS THIS NOT
A DEPRESSION???? Sorry, but my current conditions tell me that this
HAS to be a depression!!!

I think the winds you are seeing are just the pressure gradient.
How could a system over the NW Bahamas be giving Tampa Bay direct winds?

Peak wind here in West Palm has been 20 with gust to 24.
We would certainly be seeing higher winds than Tampa Bay if this had developed as we're pretty close to whatever center 94L (I guess soon to be TD16) has.

truballer#1 · #270 Postby **truballer#1** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 4:00 pm

[/url]

truballer#1 · #271 Postby **truballer#1** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 4:00 pm

[/url]

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #272 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 4:05 pm

fci wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Consistent gusts of 25-33 mph now occuring. HOW THE HECK IS THIS NOT
A DEPRESSION???? Sorry, but my current conditions tell me that this
HAS to be a depression!!!

I think the winds you are seeing are just the pressure gradient.
How could a system over the NW Bahamas be giving Tampa Bay direct winds?

Peak wind here in West Palm has been 20 with gust to 24.
We would certainly be seeing higher winds than Tampa Bay if this had developed as we're pretty close to whatever center 94L (I guess soon to be TD16) has.

Yeah you're right it's the gradient. The winds have calmed now. But are
occasionally gusty due to gradient.

vaffie · #273 Postby **vaffie** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 4:27 pm

I think I know why the models are again saying it's going to go north up the east coast, when the satellite picture seems to indicate it's going west. It's because the center seems to be in the process of reforming to the north, and thus the models are taking that as if it has moved to the north, and so they continue to drift it north, whereas, in actuality, because it has reformed to the north and is closer to better steering winds from the big high in New England, it will actually start moving wester faster. What do y'all think?

#274 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 4:30 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 052129
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
MARIA... LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA... AND HAS
INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN... LOCATED
ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON... CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #275 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 4:33 pm

How long is the system supposed to remain offshore?

KatDaddy · #276 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 4:38 pm

We will watch with for sure. Keep it away from the W GOM but would gladly take anything tropical that would just add more misery to LA and our friends eastward.

#277 Postby **fci** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 4:42 pm

I know that 94L is supposed to be stationary but looking at the radar, the convection seems to have shifted quite a bit north and our weather here has imprved greatly.

BensonTCwatcher · #278 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 4:55 pm

Looking a lot more organized. Actually ,it looks serious now. I tend to agree with overall N motion, whether it was a re-formation or otherwise. I don't see that the ridging will enough to take it across FL.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #279 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 5:13 pm

So 48 hrs over water??? How long?

artist · #280 Postby **artist** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 5:32 pm

it is showing a north motion according to Nassau - the winds are now out of the west rather than the sw now -

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MYNN.html

Invest 94L,Comments,Sat Pic,Models Thread

Re: The GFS

Models misinterpreting

Who is online