#4 Postby nequad » Mon Sep 05, 2005 5:22 pm
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
313 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2005
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL EXTEND A RIDGE DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WOULD BE AN ESSENTIALLY DRY FORECAST WERE IT NOT
FOR A SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR 30N/73W. THE GFS APPEARS
TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND PROPAGATES IT
GENERALLY WESTWARD WITH TIME...APPROACHING THE N FL/GA COASTLINE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN VERY DRY
MID LEVELS...LACK OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AND PROXIMITY TO THE BONA
FIDE TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
ACCELERATE THE EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ENOUGH TO INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
AND OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
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