Hurricane Nate,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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cycloneye
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#21 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2005 2:41 pm

artist wrote:pressures down to 29.78 at Key West last hour

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KEYW.html


artist I think you posted that at the wrong thread.This thread is for the new depression 15 located Between Bermuda and Hispanola.What you posted has to be at the 94L thread. :)
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#22 Postby artist » Mon Sep 05, 2005 2:52 pm

ooops - sorry about that! :eek:
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#23 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 05, 2005 2:59 pm

Interesting to note, TD 15 is the first storm of the season that has subtropical origins, so far all tropical systems had developed from tropical waves.
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#24 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 05, 2005 3:09 pm

Still has that SW drift this afternoon.
I don't blame the NHC for delaying the forecast till the models settle their fujiwar.
Maria is headed out of the picture and it looks like the ridge is building pretty far east so it should be interesting.
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#25 Postby shaggy » Mon Sep 05, 2005 4:14 pm

i have to admit even tho no models directly threaten my area if the west movement comes to fruition i will remain quite vigilant of the system until its on its way out to sea!Hopefully now that it has developed more the models will start to get a better handle on it
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#26 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Sep 05, 2005 4:15 pm

I wonder where they get a 25 knot depression from? It has nice shape to it with a very tight/well defined LLC. I would think it would be more like 30 to 35 knots.
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#27 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Sep 05, 2005 6:54 pm

Deep convection has formed over the LLC. The system is developing at a pretty good clip. I expect Nate tonight.
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#28 Postby wx247 » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:44 pm

I figure a 30 kts TD tonight, but naming it Nate is not out of the question!
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#29 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:45 pm

Curve banding is starting to wrap into the center. With the convection becoming much better organized. Outflow is spread from most quads. I would say that it is now a 40 to 45 knot tropical storm.
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#30 Postby 27-80 » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:47 pm

I'm having Jeanne 2004 flashbacks; she curved NE and then looped. please tell me that's not likely this time ...
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#31 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:47 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Curve banding is starting to wrap into the center. With the convection becoming much better organized. Outflow is spread from most quads. I would say that it is now a 40 to 45 knot tropical storm.


Sat estimates from Dvorak and the Air Force area all still 1.5/1.5
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#32 Postby krysof » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:48 pm

I will watch this one, models are really spread out right now, most models show an almost due west or WNW motion for a couple of days, and than rapidly turn it. It may move far enough west to impact the U.S it's not that far away from land. I think Bermuda will probably be effected if it recurves.
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#33 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:50 pm

TPNT KGWC 060026
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN
B. 05/2231Z (81)
C. 27.8N/7
D. 67.1W/4
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T1.5/1.5/STT: S0.0/03HRS -05/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN STILL WRAPS AT .30 USING THE
LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT...PT AGREES.

AODT: T1.8 (UNIFORM CDO CLD RGN)

LAURENTI

Air Force T Numbers.Matt not quite yet Nate.
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#34 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:56 pm

The banding is wraping into the cirualtion. It is on the edge of developing a inner core. Once it doe's that it can develop faster. It looks much better then Bret or Gert. Also Maria with its clear eye looks almost like Katrina as it was moving into the Gulf coast.
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#35 Postby WindRunner » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:37 pm

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN (AL152005) ON 20050906 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050906 0000 050906 1200 050907 0000 050907 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.0N 66.7W 28.4N 67.5W 28.8N 68.5W 29.1N 69.5W
BAMM 28.0N 66.7W 28.6N 67.4W 28.9N 68.2W 29.1N 69.1W
A98E 28.0N 66.7W 28.0N 67.1W 28.6N 67.5W 29.4N 67.7W
LBAR 28.0N 66.7W 28.5N 67.0W 29.0N 67.3W 29.4N 67.5W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 55KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050908 0000 050909 0000 050910 0000 050911 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.6N 70.3W 31.8N 69.4W 34.0N 57.2W 36.2N 38.3W
BAMM 29.4N 70.0W 30.7N 70.6W 32.2N 67.3W 31.7N 55.7W
A98E 30.1N 67.7W 32.0N 65.3W 33.6N 59.6W 37.0N 48.6W
LBAR 29.7N 67.8W 31.6N 66.4W 34.9N 61.9W 39.3N 51.3W
SHIP 62KTS 71KTS 71KTS 63KTS
DSHP 62KTS 71KTS 71KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.0N LONCUR = 66.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 27.8N LONM12 = 66.3W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 27.3N LONM24 = 66.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

TD15 gets an upgrade to 30kts at 11.
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#36 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:38 pm

I expect "Nate" at 5 AM.
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#37 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:41 pm

And look where it's drifting now west 270 degrees at 2 kts.Doing a mini loop out there.
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#38 Postby wx247 » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:51 pm

Yep... TD 15 is 30 kts @ 11. We shall see what the overnight brings!
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#39 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:06 pm

this was one of the latest guidance releases that I can remember
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#40 Postby Coredesat » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:09 pm

:fishing:
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