Hurricane Nate,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

shaggy · #41 Postby **shaggy** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:10 pm

my ametuer second guessing is already beginning in response to the 15 track forecast.Seems this high that is going to build in and is suppose to push 94L west eventually but move 15 NE?Guess i do not understand the effects of high pressure or have not paid enough attention to the models recently to know what they say! If its such a strong high wouldn't it feasibly push 15 SW not NE if its building in from the NW of the storm?

#42 Postby **SeaBrz_FL** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:16 pm

Way too "deja vuish" for me ....

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #43 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:17 pm

A big burst of convection has formed near the LLC. It is wraping...

#44 Postby **SkeetoBite** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:33 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:this was one of the latest guidance releases that I can remember

Yeah, I've been double checking code all day because of the delay. Glad it wasn't just me...

#45 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:04 pm

Now I know why the delay.They were at conference among the forecasters at the office deciding to upgrade TD15 or not and now we know what happpened the 14th storm of the season.

#46 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:08 pm

By the way, what about the TWO at 10:30 PM that is referring to this system as TD 15 and not TS Nate.

#47 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:10 pm

HURAKAN wrote:By the way, what about the TWO at 10:30 PM that is referring to this system as TD 15 and not TS Nate.

It was a last minute decision to upgrade TD15.

Lori · #48 Postby **Lori** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:10 pm

What? I go away for a little while and TD15 becomes TS Nate.
Chants: Fish! Fish! Fish!
May all the storms be Fish.

scostorms · #49 Postby **scostorms** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:11 pm

Lol, when I first started out here, I thought fish meant like a swarm of fish showing up on satelite. Now I get it...

shaggy · #50 Postby **shaggy** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:20 pm

i hate when they end a discussion this way!!!!!!

While a weak ridge should induce slow westward motion for the
next 2-3 days... the ridge is forecast by most models to then break
down and force Nate northeastward. The new official forecast
follows this general scenario and is an eastward adjustment of the
previous advisory track. It is safe to say this is a low
confidence track forecast.

leaves me with a slightly uneasy feeling.

krysof · #51 Postby **krysof** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:25 pm

What they are pretty much saying is: do not let your guard down, and don't think this will be a 100% fish storm.

#52 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 1:01 am

#53 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 7:31 am

TROPICAL STORM NATE (AL152005) ON 20050906 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050906 1200 050907 0000 050907 1200 050908 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.6N 66.6W 28.9N 66.9W 29.2N 67.2W 29.8N 67.2W
BAMM 28.6N 66.6W 29.0N 66.9W 29.2N 67.3W 29.7N 67.7W
A98E 28.6N 66.6W 28.6N 66.8W 29.0N 66.7W 30.0N 65.9W
LBAR 28.6N 66.6W 28.9N 66.6W 29.1N 66.7W 29.5N 66.9W
SHIP 50KTS 61KTS 68KTS 73KTS
DSHP 50KTS 61KTS 68KTS 73KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050908 1200 050909 1200 050910 1200 050911 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.9N 66.3W 34.0N 60.3W 37.4N 46.7W 36.9N 31.2W
BAMM 30.6N 67.7W 33.1N 64.8W 36.6N 55.1W 41.6N 41.8W
A98E 31.3N 64.6W 33.4N 60.1W 36.4N 51.4W 40.3N 37.3W
LBAR 29.8N 67.2W 32.4N 65.6W 36.4N 59.2W 41.2N 45.1W
SHIP 75KTS 73KTS 65KTS 55KTS
DSHP 75KTS 73KTS 65KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.6N LONCUR = 66.6W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 28.4N LONM12 = 66.6W DIRM12 = 77DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 28.5N LONM24 = 67.5W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 40NM

#54 Postby **Andrew92** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 7:41 am

Wow, Nate is in a hurry to develop!

#55 Postby **cjrciadt** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 8:12 am

Nate does not want to be dwarf by little Maria with her long tail. Nate has blown up greatly from just yesterday at this time.

shaggy · #56 Postby **shaggy** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:55 am

getting a feeling of relative calm now as it seems the EC is safe this year no storms are approaching it they are all recurves

krysof · #57 Postby **krysof** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 10:11 am

Bermuda is in a bad spot, models are tightly clustered around Bermuda. TD 16 is probably going to effect the U.S.

Hyperstorm · #58 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 3:26 pm

Nate is VERY close to being a hurricane if not one already. Satellite images reveal a very impressive CDO developing and outflow is very good. Winds could definitely be increased to 75mph at the 5pm advisory. If not, very likely at 11pm.

Bermuda should watch out for this system as it could very well pack quite a punch. Category 2 hurricane potential is increasing...

Hyperstorm · #59 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 3:47 pm

Winds were not increased at 5pm. This is likely due to the fact that the Dvorak estimates do not justify an upgrade. They generally don't make any upgrades without supporting Dvorak estimates and/or Air Force Recon.

This evening they'll probably have the Dvorak estimates near 4.0...

#60 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 7:53 pm

TROPICAL STORM NATE (AL152005) ON 20050907 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050907 0000 050907 1200 050908 0000 050908 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.7N 66.3W 29.3N 66.5W 30.3N 66.2W 31.7N 64.5W
BAMM 28.7N 66.3W 29.4N 66.7W 30.3N 66.9W 31.6N 66.3W
A98E 28.7N 66.3W 28.9N 66.2W 29.3N 65.6W 30.8N 64.8W
LBAR 28.7N 66.3W 29.0N 66.4W 29.5N 66.6W 30.1N 66.7W
SHIP 55KTS 61KTS 66KTS 69KTS
DSHP 55KTS 61KTS 66KTS 69KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050909 0000 050910 0000 050911 0000 050912 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.5N 61.1W 36.4N 47.6W 34.7N 29.3W 32.3N 17.9W
BAMM 32.9N 64.4W 35.3N 57.8W 38.6N 48.0W 43.2N 35.9W
A98E 32.5N 62.7W 34.9N 56.8W 37.9N 46.2W 40.7N 31.0W
LBAR 31.0N 66.2W 34.3N 62.0W 38.6N 51.5W 40.9N 35.8W
SHIP 70KTS 65KTS 55KTS 45KTS
DSHP 70KTS 65KTS 55KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.7N LONCUR = 66.3W DIRCUR = 40DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 28.5N LONM12 = 66.5W DIRM12 = 41DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 28.4N LONM24 = 66.6W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 60NM

A little more stronger at 11 PM 65 mph.

Hurricane Nate,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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