Invest 94L,Comments,Sat Pic,Models Thread

[MortisFL]

Judging by most of the models, 94L is going to be near the FL coast or off the SE coast for awhile...most keeping it near the coast for 144 hrs, being trapped under high pressure.

[Windy]

Well, that kinda sucks. That could be a whole lotta rain for Florida. Not to mention how freaked out they're going to be on the east coast of FL with a TS/Hurricane spinning just off the coast for a week.

[MortisFL]

Theres a few scenarios that the NWS discussions are coming up with. A N/NW movement, then either into the FL coast or staying off the coast and meandering.

[Thunder44]

172
ABNT20 KNHC 060916
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA...ALONG WITH NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...
INDICATE A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN
THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

So it looks like we will probably have development today.

[Doc Seminole]

Judging by most of the models, 94L is going to be near the FL coast or off the SE coast for awhile...most keeping it near the coast for 144 hrs, being trapped under high pressure.

Seems that would go along ways in cooling the SST off the Florida east coast which would definitely be a good way to dissipate the heat energy built up over the summer.

Doc Seminole

[Nimbus]

Still hanging around southeast Florida.
The model tracks have narrowed quite a bit.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_94.gif

94 has moved far enough off the east coast to lower the squall threat but without proximity to land it has a better chance of intensifying.

The only change I see in the upper air pattern from the water vapor loop is the ridge building west a little which may reduce the shear soon.

I don't like the deep layer BAM scenario which would be more likely if 94 gets better organized and strengthens into a hurricane.

There is a little more concern this morning since 94 has more favorable conditions and some running room to develop.

Lets hope 94 sees the weakness left by the trough that is forecast to take Nate out to sea.

[Cookiely]

NWS Tampa Bay
.LONG TERM (THU NGT-MON)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS
SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
FEATURE FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT MODELS GRADUALLY LIFT THIS
LOW FROM OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER BEFORE STALLING IT THERE AND WEAKENING IT.
FOR NOW...HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...
KEEPING 50% IN THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN TAPERING BACK TO 40% FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
At least they are not mentioning it going across the state into the GOM.

[cycloneye]

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS OFF THE
COAST OF S FLORIDA NEAR 26N78W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOT THAT WELL DEFINED ON THE MIAMI
RADAR IMAGERY BUT DOES APPEAR TO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. LOW IS BENEATH THE W SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER
HIGH PRODUCING S SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
30/45 NM OF LINE 26N77W-28N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
25N79W-31N76W INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N TO NW BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
AND BE NEAR OR OVER FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.

8 AM Discussion.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20050906 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050906 1200 050907 0000 050907 1200 050908 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.5N 78.5W 27.7N 79.4W 28.6N 80.1W 29.2N 80.5W
BAMM 26.5N 78.5W 27.3N 79.2W 28.0N 79.8W 28.5N 80.2W
A98E 26.5N 78.5W 26.4N 78.8W 27.3N 79.4W 28.0N 79.5W
LBAR 26.5N 78.5W 27.4N 79.1W 28.2N 79.3W 28.9N 78.9W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050908 1200 050909 1200 050910 1200 050911 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.4N 80.7W 30.0N 80.7W 31.3N 79.9W 31.5N 77.1W
BAMM 28.7N 80.5W 29.2N 81.1W 30.2N 82.5W 30.9N 83.8W
A98E 28.6N 79.9W 29.6N 80.4W 31.1N 80.6W 32.4N 76.3W
LBAR 29.6N 79.0W 30.9N 77.4W 34.1N 74.1W 36.6N 64.5W
SHIP 54KTS 61KTS 61KTS 58KTS
DSHP 54KTS 52KTS 31KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.5N LONCUR = 78.5W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 26.5N LONM12 = 78.5W DIRM12 = 21DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 25.6N LONM24 = 78.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Stationary.25kts,1007 mbs that pressure down from 1010 yesterday.

[cycloneye]

06/1145 UTC 26.2N 79.0W T2.0/2.0 94 -- Atlantic Ocean


T numbers up now to 2.0 that support TD status.Let's see what they do at 11 AM if they upgrade or wait for recon this afternoon.

[KatDaddy]

Definitely expect TD status followed by it officially becoming Ophelia. It just looks to good to not be a TD this morning.