Tropical Storm Ophelia

#61 Postby **deltadog03** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 10:35 am

I don't see it getting that far north...we will see...start preparing now folks

artist · #62 Postby **artist** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 10:38 am

it appears on radar that there is more energy associated with the southern vortex - mouse over storm velocity-
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx.shtml

nequad · #63 Postby **nequad** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 10:45 am

12Z GFS initialization...amazing to see the three systems lined up like that. Fairly good initilaization by the GFS. Looking forward to seeing how it handles this system this morning...

Typhoon_Willie · #64 Postby **Typhoon_Willie** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 10:49 am

Yes it is amazing! Here is local Bahamian radar on TD # 16

http://bahamasweather.org.bs/radar/local/

hicksta · #65 Postby **hicksta** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 10:51 am

gfdl for the win..

#66 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 10:54 am

x-y-no wrote:

That's not so much a "cone of uncertainty" as a "blob of uncertainty."

it is a blob huh?

#67 Postby **cjrciadt** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 10:55 am

southfloridawx2005 wrote:
x-y-no wrote:

That's not so much a "cone of uncertainty" as a "blob of uncertainty."

it is a blob huh?

More like a "dartboard" with FL always the target.

#68 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 10:56 am

gfdl is not nice!!!

#69 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 10:56 am

gfdl is not nice!!!

Skywatch_NC · #70 Postby **Skywatch_NC** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 10:56 am

Hopefully will bring the Carolinas some rain later next week.

Eric

#71 Postby **fci** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 10:59 am

Typhoon_Willie wrote:Yes it is amazing! Here is local Bahamian radar on TD # 16

http://bahamasweather.org.bs/radar/local/

Maybe I am missing something but all I see on this radar are a few showers; nothing that looks concentrated around a center. Maybe a little circulation but not much else.

#72 Postby **Canelaw99** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 11:05 am

OK, maybe I'm a little pessimistic about the NHC or something, I don't know, but in looking at their 3 day "cone", there is quite a potential for it to go anywhere along the FL coast yet they only have the watch/warning up for a slim portion. I understand that if TD 16 behaves, not much will be felt here in the southern portion, but it just doesn't seem like the cone area matches up....maybe it's just me :wink:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145127.shtml?3day

#73 Postby **cjrciadt** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 11:08 am

Canelaw99 wrote:OK, maybe I'm a little pessimistic about the NHC or something, I don't know, but in looking at their 3 day "cone", there is quite a potential for it to go anywhere along the FL coast yet they only have the watch/warning up for a slim portion. I understand that if TD 16 behaves, not much will be felt here in the southern portion, but it just doesn't seem like the cone area matches up....maybe it's just me

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145127.shtml?3day

I agree, a Central FL. seems likely to me right now. Look at the intensity chart. Anything from a 20mph TD to Cat 3 before landfall, cover all your bases.

#74 Postby **Jevo** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 11:14 am

Marilyn wrote:
jschlitz wrote:
melhow wrote:
Terry wrote:Jevo wrote:
NOOOOOOOO I close on my house this Friday!!!!!!!

Palm Beach County

I don't think that will happen now. Sorry.

Why not? People close on houses in the rain all of the time...

If there is a named storm within a certain area you cannot get insurance and you can't close.
You are correct IT HAPPEN TO US..

Ugh I just found out... 700 miles in a circle from the center... 2 things need to happen for me to close on Friday... landfall or not being named is what the title company just told me. They will close with a depression, but not a named storm

#75 Postby **mascpa** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 11:30 am

It's raining ... again! surprisingly, the wind had slightly more of an eatern component to it than yesterday, I would have thought the wind would have been almost due north. Here comes another band of thunderstorms!

Website · #76 Postby **Brent** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 11:30 am

Jevo wrote:Ugh I just found out... 700 miles in a circle from the center... 2 things need to happen for me to close on Friday... landfall or not being named is what the title company just told me. They will close with a depression, but not a named storm

It's gonna be named... I can assure you of that.

#77 Postby **tracyswfla** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 11:33 am

Brent wrote:
Jevo wrote:Ugh I just found out... 700 miles in a circle from the center... 2 things need to happen for me to close on Friday... landfall or not being named is what the title company just told me. They will close with a depression, but not a named storm

It's gonna be named... I can assure you of that.

Soon to be named when recon gets a fix... I also have a hunch, Ms. TD 16 will not go as far North as forecasted.....

#78 Postby **cjrciadt** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 11:35 am

I agree with both of you my only questions are:
1. Will it make Cat1 strength before landfall?
2. Will it make landfall N. or S. of Daytona Beach?

#79 Postby **tracyswfla** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 11:37 am

cjrciadt wrote:I agree with both of you my only questions are:
1. Will it make Cat1 strength before landfall?
2. Will it make landfall N. or S. of Daytona Beach?

My hunch which is only based on a "gut Feeling," is that this will come in south of Daytona.

#80 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 11:38 am

tracyswfla wrote:
cjrciadt wrote:I agree with both of you my only questions are:
1. Will it make Cat1 strength before landfall?
2. Will it make landfall N. or S. of Daytona Beach?

My hunch which is only based on a "gut Feeling," is that this will come in south of Daytona.

check out that blob of uncertainty could go anywhere.... ha

Tropical Storm Ophelia

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