#16/Ophelia forecast #1: Central or North Fla gonna get wet

[Josephine96]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #16
NJN WEATHER CENTER
9PM ET TUES SEPT 6TH 2005

Tropical Depression #16 formed earlier today just off the coast of Florida and is expected to make landfall somewhere along the Central or North Florida coast in about 48-72 hours, or even sooner if she decides to accelerate.

Our wanna be Ophelia is still disorganized, but has been showing signs of gaining her name. T Numbers as reported in another thread are about 2.5 which means she may be an albeit weak but TS at this time.

Most of the entire Central Florida coast is under a tropical storm warning at this time. There are no warnings or watches inland yet.

#16 is forecast to continue to move slowly, with a gradual turn to either the W or NW. Where she makes the turn will depend on her landfall spot. Currently the NHC is plotting her distance from Cape Canaveral in Brevard County.

Ophelia is expected to be a medium to perhaps strong TS at landfall. Becoming a hurricane is unlikely, unless she sits and stirs for a longer than expected time.

My forecast has Ophelia drifting before making a NW to WNW movement with a landfall in Volusia County. Perhaps New Smyrna Beach.

Here's my projected 5 day forecast on Ophelia.

Tonight: Slowly trying to organize. May become a TS. max winds: 40 mph
Wednesday: Moving erratically NWward. Max winds: 45 mph
Thursday: Nearing landfall in Volusia County as a decent TS. Max winds: 65 mph
Friday: Inland and dissipating. Near Jacksonville. Max winds: 40 mph
Saturday: Extra tropical over Georgia. max winds: 25 mph