Tropical Storm Ophelia

[Rainband]

Odd question here, but does anyone see ANYTHING (give me some hope here!) that could turn TD16 towards the East instead of WWard?

The GFDL is the model to watch. Unfortunately it brings 16 into the GOM

I am wondering what the GFDL is picking up to cause that kind of sw-w motion.

The High to the North

[Rainband]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
101 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

VALID 12Z FRI SEP 09 2005 - 12Z TUE SEP 13 2005

TELECONNECTIONS W/THE POSITIVE ANOMALY NR 50N 160W FAVOR AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACRS NA W/LOWERED HEIGHTS IN CA AND INCREASED
HEIGHTS OVR THE SOUTHEAST...ONE POTENTIALLY STRONGER THAN WHAT THE
SOME OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING. CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE MANUAL PROGS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW TPC FCST AND 16Z TPC
COORDINATION CALL.

HAWAII..
THE MDLS ARE INDICATING A PSBL TROP CYC TO MOVE NR THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS TO FORM FROM A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NR 135W. THE 06Z GFS
SHOWS THE MOST NELY TRACK AND THE ECMWF/UKMET KEEPING THE SYS
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. AFTER COORDINATING W/PHNL AND CONSIDERING
CLIMATOLOGY...THE ECMWF WAS CONSIDERED THE PREFERRED SOLN WHICH
KEEPS THE SYS ABOUT 300 NM SOUTH OF HAWAII. THIS TRACK WOULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN THE TRADEWINDS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AK...
A PAIR OF SYS ARE EXPECTED TO CIRCUMNAVIGATE THE NRN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE ALEUTIANS RAINY. LESSER AMTS OF
PCPN ARE EXPECTED IN SERN AK DUE TO DEEP NWLY FLOW.

WEST...
ECMWF REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE PD
HERE...DUE TO ITS STRONG RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND ITS SUPPORT BY
TELECONNECTIONS W/THE POSITIVE ANOMALY NR 50N 160W. THE UKMET AND
ENSMEAN SUPPORT THE ECMWF...WHICH FORMS A NICE CONSENSUS...AND THE
06Z GFS IS SIMILAR THRU 150 HRS...SHOWING A SOLN BETWEEN ITS
PREVIOUS 48 HRS OF RUNS. THE 06Z GFS CUTS OFF AN UPR CYC OFFSHORE
NRN CA AT THE END OF THE PD. THOUGH THIS IS PSBL...WL STICK W/THE
ECMWF SOLN FOR NOW AND WAIT FOR MORE OF A CONSENSUS.

NORTHEAST/MID ATL...
ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF CONFLUENT FLOW OVER ERN CANADA CAN AFFECT
HOW FAR S THE POLAR FRONT SETTLES INTO US...TELECONNECTIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE FAVORED STRONGER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS ACRS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL LIMIT THE SWD INTRUSION OF ANY CDFNTS ATTEMPTING TO
MAKE PROGRESS THRU THE REGION. WILL SLOW DOWN THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION TO THE 06Z GFS SOLN...WHICH IS FAVORED BY THE NCEP
ENSMEAN.

SOUTHEAST...
NO MATTER HOW FAR NORTH THIS POTENTIAL TROP CYC GETS...THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE SOUTHEAST/WRN ATL SHOULD
FORCE IT WWD/WSWWD EVENTUALLY... SIMILAR TO KATRINAS TRACK BUT
FARTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE WORST MODELS IN FCSTG TROP
CYC MOTION... USUALLY SHOWING A WWD BIAS IN THE SUBTROPICS...AND
IT IS THE MOST WWD OF ALL THE GUIDANCE. THE CAN/NAM/UKMET/NCEP
ENSMEAN STILL SHOW/HINT AT FULL RECURVATURE WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
LOOK OF THE UPPER PATTERN IN THOSE MDLS. THE COORDINATED POINTS
ARE CLOSEST TO THE 06Z GFS AT THE SFC AND 00Z NOGAPS... WHICH
NORMALLY SHOW GREATER SKILL W/TROP CYCS THAN THE ECMWF.

ROTH/CISCO
ñ

[jasons2k]

I agree the GFDL is the correct idea with this one, along with the European. Don't look at it though; when I saw it, it made me sick.

[Amanzi]

OH ok... I got ya now. Thanks Rainband!

[Rainband]

OH ok... I got ya now. Thanks Rainband!

don't know if thats right or not This year has been a crapshoot so far...

[jasons2k]

Thanks Rainband, and hopefully the ECMWF (European) won't pan out.

[SouthFloridawx]

[wxman57]

Interesting model run.

Again, for the 1 millionth time, pay VERY LITTLE attention to the BAM runs with a storm out of the deep tropics (south of 20N). The BAMS/BAMM/BAMD are practically useless in a changing environment. LBAR is no good either, and A98E is simply a climo model. So those model runs that everyone posts ever 6 hours are basically meaningless with TD 16/Ophelia.

I'd look more closely at the GFDL and ECMWF, as the GFS will always weaken the ridge too quickly as it did with Katrina. And the NAM is always useless for tropical.

Final note, the center is closer to 28N/78.7W now (reformation), so the next GFDL will likely shift farther northward but the same general track.

[truballer#1]

can someone show the ecmwf map?

[tracyswfla]

Interesting model run.

Again, for the 1 millionth time, pay VERY LITTLE attention to the BAM runs with a storm out of the deep tropics (south of 20N). The BAMS/BAMM/BAMD are practically useless in a changing environment. LBAR is no good either, and AH98 is simply a climo model. So those model runs that everyone posts ever 6 hours are basically meaningless with TD 16/Ophelia.

Only have to tell me once

[SouthFloridawx]

Interesting model run.

Again, for the 1 millionth time, pay VERY LITTLE attention to the BAM runs with a storm out of the deep tropics (south of 20N). The BAMS/BAMM/BAMD are practically useless in a changing environment. LBAR is no good either, and A98E is simply a climo model. So those model runs that everyone posts ever 6 hours are basically meaningless with TD 16/Ophelia.

I'd look more closely at the GFDL and ECMWF, as the GFS will always weaken the ridge too quickly as it did with Katrina. And the NAM is always useless for tropical.

Final note, the center is closer to 28N/78.7W now (reformation), so the next GFDL will likely shift farther northward but the same general track.

LOL

[wxman57]

Thanks Rainband, and hopefully the ECMWF (European) won't pan out.

I suspect the 12Z EC will be too far south as it didn't account for a center reformation farther north this evening. But the general track westward may be good.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Interesting model run.

Again, for the 1 millionth time, pay VERY LITTLE attention to the BAM runs with a storm out of the deep tropics (south of 20N). The BAMS/BAMM/BAMD are practically useless in a changing environment. LBAR is no good either, and A98E is simply a climo model. So those model runs that everyone posts ever 6 hours are basically meaningless with TD 16/Ophelia.

I'd look more closely at the GFDL and ECMWF, as the GFS will always weaken the ridge too quickly as it did with Katrina. And the NAM is always useless for tropical.

Final note, the center is closer to 28N/78.7W now (reformation), so the next GFDL will likely shift farther northward but the same general track.

So the only other ones left are the GFDL which takes it into the GOM and was right about Katrina or the UKMet which looks like it has it doing a loop! Don't like the looks of them at all!

[SouthFloridawx]

[cinlfla]

Again, for the 1 millionth time, pay VERY LITTLE attention to the BAM runs with a storm out of the deep tropics (south of 20N).

LOL, that sound like something I say to my 8 year old. I guess we need repitition like most kids

[krysof]

it could get picked up by the trough that is expected to pick Nate up and take it near Bermuda, it may not get picked up, and that would be very bad, and that's what I'm leaning towards

[Rainband]

Thanks Rainband, and hopefully the ECMWF (European) won't pan out.

I suspect the 12Z EC will be too far south as it didn't account for a center reformation farther north this evening. But the general track westward may be good.

well that would be really close to me

[jasons2k]

Thanks Rainband, and hopefully the ECMWF (European) won't pan out.

I suspect the 12Z EC will be too far south as it didn't account for a center reformation farther north this evening. But the general track westward may be good.

I agree; just hope this doesn't meander too long and eventually get pushed SW.

[jasons2k]

Interesting model run.

Again, for the 1 millionth time, pay VERY LITTLE attention to the BAM runs with a storm out of the deep tropics (south of 20N). The BAMS/BAMM/BAMD are practically useless in a changing environment. LBAR is no good either, and A98E is simply a climo model. So those model runs that everyone posts ever 6 hours are basically meaningless with TD 16/Ophelia.

I'd look more closely at the GFDL and ECMWF, as the GFS will always weaken the ridge too quickly as it did with Katrina. And the NAM is always useless for tropical.

Final note, the center is closer to 28N/78.7W now (reformation), so the next GFDL will likely shift farther northward but the same general track.

Can I frame this one???

[CFL]

Somehow the GFDL doesn't seem right. The storm is drifting northward and it looked to me earlier that some of the cloudtops were blowing off toward the north.