Last Named System?

SamSagnella · #1 Postby **SamSagnella** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:24 pm

How far do you think this out-of-control season will get? Keep in mind that today is September 6, and the official hurricane season ends on November 30.

MODERATORS: Please edit this poll so that the final option reads "Delta or Beyond"

krysof · #2 Postby **krysof** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:43 pm

also include the O storm, the P storm, the R storm and the S storm- maybe not the O storm but definetelly P, R, and S. Even though its September 6th, maybe after those three move on, there will be a major lull in development

#3 Postby **Buck** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:55 pm

I'll say Beta.

Josephine96 · #4 Postby **Josephine96** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 7:31 pm

I'll go with the Greek C storm please

Coredesat · #5 Postby **Coredesat** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 7:41 pm

Josephine96 wrote:I'll go with the Greek C storm please

That would be Gamma.

I voted Alpha, but that's probably being a bit conservative, seeing as we're already on the verge of having our O storm.

hurricanefreak1988 · #6 Postby **hurricanefreak1988** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 8:34 pm

Delta or beyond, baby!

Seriously, I think it's pretty much a lock that we'll get past Delta. Unless, of course, the activity comes to a complete halt in October. With the way this season has gone, though, I just don't see it happening.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #7 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 8:35 pm

hurricanefreak I agree.

hurricanefreak1988 · #8 Postby **hurricanefreak1988** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 8:37 pm

By the way, Matt, I'm already thinking of a nice design for your avatar that you'll be fortunate enough to wear on December 1. It'll look pretty good. :wink:

Foladar · #9 Postby **Foladar** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 8:38 pm

I'm going with Wilma.

SamSagnella · #10 Postby **SamSagnella** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 8:47 pm

hurricanefreak1988 wrote:Seriously, I think it's pretty much a lock that we'll get past Delta. Unless, of course, the activity comes to a complete halt in October. With the way this season has gone, though, I just don't see it happening.

Couldn't have said it better myself. With the climatological peak(s) of the hurricane season yet to come, I find it nearly impossible that we will not reach Delta or beyond.

lurkerinthemidst · #11 Postby **lurkerinthemidst** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:10 pm

I voted for Wilma but I truly hope it ends sooner. It wouldn't surprise me if we go through some of the Greek alphabet but I think that for everyone’s sanity it would do good to end soon. Or all the rest fish. (I know high hopes)

Scorpion · #12 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:17 pm

Hmm Hurricane Gamma sounds pretty cool

.

wxmann_91 · #13 Postby **wxmann_91** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:33 pm

Vince.

I rather stay conservative than to go out on a limb and then later having to eat big servings of crow.

There just has to be a reason that no season in recorded history had more than 22 storms that were TS intensity or higher.

Scorpion · #14 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:39 pm

We only have about 80 years or so of RELIABLE history. Who knows what other seasons were like. Also this season has already broken records. We have had 2 records broken for intensity in July, and the strongest hurricane(pressurewise) ever hurricane in the GOM.

Swimdude · #15 Postby **Swimdude** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 10:00 pm

I say Vince.

Astro_man92 · #16 Postby **Astro_man92** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 3:14 pm

SamSagnella wrote:
hurricanefreak1988 wrote:Seriously, I think it's pretty much a lock that we'll get past Delta. Unless, of course, the activity comes to a complete halt in October. With the way this season has gone, though, I just don't see it happening.

Couldn't have said it better myself. With the climatological peak(s) of the hurricane season yet to come, I find it nearly impossible that we will not reach Delta or beyond.

Yah the peak. But think about this usually at end of a storm season we have an average of 10 named storms (the J storm). We are STILL 3 days away from the Peak of the storm season and we are on the O storm or 15 named storms. (to get to alpha we need 22 named) I'd say that we will definatley have at least 2 or 3 more storms and possibly we may get 6 to 7 more.

here is a table of my thoughts: (more)

1 more: 99.0% Philippe
2 more: 90.0% Rita
3 more: 87.0% Stan
4 more: 80.0% Tammy
5 more: 70.0% Vince
6 more: 50.0% Wilma
7 more: 30.0% Alpha
8 more: 10.0% Beta
9 more: 3.0% Gamma
10 more: 1.0% Delta

NastyCat4 · #17 Postby **NastyCat4** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 3:45 pm

You honestly don't think THIS is the peak??????? This week is so obviously a peak statistical event, given the number of storms simultaneously. Don't be stunned to see activity shut down like last year--early start=early end.

SamSagnella · #18 Postby **SamSagnella** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:58 pm

Bump.
Now that we're up to Rita...anyone think we'll escape this season without a Greek storm?

NastyCat4 · #19 Postby **NastyCat4** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 10:43 pm

I would say less than 1% chance of a Greek storm---peak is now, and will shut down early---can't maintain this level of activity. A fair bet is Vince or Wilma.

gilbert88 · #20 Postby **gilbert88** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 10:56 pm

NastyCat4 wrote:I would say less than 1% chance of a Greek storm---peak is now, and will shut down early---can't maintain this level of activity. A fair bet is Vince or Wilma.

Less than 1%???? Please think of the crows...

Last Named System?

Last Named System of 2005

Last Named System?

Who is online