Convection deepens substantially......
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hurricanedude
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Lowpressure
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spinfan4eva
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hurricanedude wrote:I say the 5am advisory will have watches and warnings as far north as St Augustine....perhaps as far north as Fernandina Beach!
No Way
You been listenning to Tim Deegan? 
Seriously, I hope you are wrong, but I agree, its not looking good
Last edited by spinfan4eva on Tue Sep 06, 2005 8:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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dixiebreeze
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spinfan4eva wrote:hurricanedude wrote:I say the 5am advisory will have watches and warnings as far north as St Augustine....perhaps as far north as Fernandina Beach!
No Way
Seriously, I hope you are wrong, but I agree, its not looking good
John Gaughan is "hoping" it goes south of us, but he is not sure. He isn't sold on it going east of us. He thinks either south of us or over us.
Fox 30 is basically saying anywhere over Florida.
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Scorpion
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Brent
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Scorpion wrote:Wow, that would be historic. Also bad, as Jacksonville is a major city. Imagine, 2 major cities hit by hurricanes this year.
Yeah... I'm especially concerned about that warm untouched water. As Katrina was 1st making landfall, she was strengthening and had she had more time, would have been stronger for Miami. Same deal here.
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#neversummer
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Jevo
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Scorpion wrote:Wow, that would be historic. Also bad, as Jacksonville is a major city. Imagine, 2 major cities hit by hurricanes this year.
That would make 3 sir..... Unless we are discounting Miami as a major city
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
THe worst spot to hit is just south of the St Johns river mouth. This amplifies the storm surge into downtown Jacksonville.
Granted, this storm is nowhere near a beast, but the river channel and rain would amplify the situation, causing a little more flooding than would be normal from this type of storm. In other words, a 3 foot surge becomes a 6-8 foot surge downtown.
http://www.coj.net/Departments/Fire%20a ... %20Map.htm
as you can see, the topographical makeup of the river system amplifies any type of flood event.
*FYI, a Cat 5 hitting just south of the mouth of the St Johns would put downtown Jacksonville under 20+ feet of water according to the Naval Command/Hurricane Command at Mayport NAS and their SLOSH models.
**this by no means takes away from the people of NO. Their's was a tragedy.**
Granted, this storm is nowhere near a beast, but the river channel and rain would amplify the situation, causing a little more flooding than would be normal from this type of storm. In other words, a 3 foot surge becomes a 6-8 foot surge downtown.
http://www.coj.net/Departments/Fire%20a ... %20Map.htm
as you can see, the topographical makeup of the river system amplifies any type of flood event.
*FYI, a Cat 5 hitting just south of the mouth of the St Johns would put downtown Jacksonville under 20+ feet of water according to the Naval Command/Hurricane Command at Mayport NAS and their SLOSH models.
**this by no means takes away from the people of NO. Their's was a tragedy.**
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spinfan4eva
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Brent wrote:NHC 11pm track... right at Jacksonville Beach.
If they verify, I think it'll be a hurricane when it comes in.
Well, looks like it likes the road less travelled, HWY 90 vs I10
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... p?t=z&m=16
This is insane, I am sure it will change but they are picking on Jacksonville 3 advisories in a row now
I think it will head North or South of here given climatology
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spinfan4eva
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PTrackerLA
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.spinfan4eva wrote:Early next week, probably, but late this week, doubtful unfortunatelyjdray wrote:So anyone think I have to work early next week?
Taking bets now...
I have to drive across the buckman bridge, that little 3.5 mile long bridge is not fun at all to drive in anything over 40mph.
I had to drive in a rainband tonight coming home, 40+mph gusts and standing water makes a fun driving experience.
Looks like Im working from home.
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spinfan4eva
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The bridges will be closed Thursday at 45mph.
This is crazy, I dont recall Tim forecasting 65mph winds here even last year! I hope it dont get even stronger!
He is now on the air saying 50-85mph winds with widespread power outages. Track turns west at the Mouth of the St Johns River.
This is crazy, I dont recall Tim forecasting 65mph winds here even last year! I hope it dont get even stronger!
He is now on the air saying 50-85mph winds with widespread power outages. Track turns west at the Mouth of the St Johns River.
jdray wrote:I have to drive across the buckman bridge, that little 3.5 mile long bridge is not fun at all to drive in anything over 40mph.
I had to drive in a rainband tonight coming home, 40+mph gusts and standing water makes a fun driving experience.
Looks like Im working from home.
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