Tropical Storm Ophelia

[rainydaze]

The local mets here in Palm Beach County seem to be giving the all clear....what do ya'll think? Is PBC safe from TD 16?

[wxmann_91]

THE GFS AND UKMET SUGGEST
THAT THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO FEED COOLER
AIR INTO THE CYCLONE...AND SHOULD THAT HAPPEN IT COULD THROW A
MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.

Interesting...now just what does that mean?

If it said drier air then I could see why future Ophelia would weaken, but cooler air???? Does that even affect a tropical system? Or does he mean cooler SST's?

[no advance]

Looking at the Melbourne radar looks like it is drifting west. Good night. I would say we got about 2 inches of rain today.

[FlSteel]

After listening to the Jax mets, well let's just say it doesn't sound promising, but obviously the jury is still out. It seems that no matter what up here it will be windy and rainy for the next 4 to 5 days. Thank the Lord I have made most of my preps. My fear is that all this rain before hand is going to cause worse damage due to trees falling than last year. Last year during Jeane and Frances there was so many tree's down and due to much less wind and rain than this thing will bring. I got a feeling we may be out of power for days this time again.

[sponger]

Preety good squalls coming in all night here in St Augustine. In between its a beautiful night. I agree that the wet ground is going to cause us some problems, and likely before Friday if this keeps up.

[FlSteel]

I agree sponger. I live in the Mandarin area of Jax. We have alot of old growth oaks there and last year was amazing to see so many of these majestic 70' tall trees just uprooted. Highest gusts I remember getting up here were around 75 - 80 mph at the beaches. I would hate to see what 70mph sustained will do after 3-4 days of rain.

[spinfan4eva]

I agree sponger. I live in the Mandarin area of Jax. We have alot of old growth oaks there and last year was amazing to see so many of these majestic 70' tall trees just uprooted. Highest gusts I remember getting up here were around 75 - 80 mph at the beaches. I would hate to see what 70mph sustained will do after 3-4 days of rain.

Im getting downpours west of 295 and radar shows nothing!

[nequad]

00Z GFS is showing recurvature...possibly getting trapped by the next high before it escapes altogether.

Only out through 96 hours...

[FlSteel]

I would love this thing to recurve

[nequad]

Well it just might. Other guidance has been predicting this move as well. Unfortunately it may not be ablle to escape entirely. She may get trapped under another ridge and could double back or make a loop ...or God only knows what.

[nequad]

Wow...The 00Z Canadian also recurves. But much faster than the GFS. It has the storm way north of Bermuda in 5 days high tailing it to the graveyard of hurricanes.

[jaxfladude]

I would love this thing to recurve

[spinfan4eva]

I would love this thing to recurve

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but, by day 6, this is making a loop and headed back sw Could be bad and stronger...........

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[nequad]

^ according to the GFS.

[FlSteel]

I would love this thing to recurve

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but, by day 6, this is making a loop and headed back sw Could be bad and stronger...........

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Don't go and ruin what little hope I'm clinging too

[nequad]

OOZ NOGAPS also recurves. So far the 00Z runs of the globals show recurvature, with one...the GFS...showing the storm getting trapped and looping back toward the west..

00Z 108 HR NOAGAPS...

[spinfan4eva]

I would love this thing to recurve

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but, by day 6, this is making a loop and headed back sw Could be bad and stronger...........

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Don't go and ruin what little hope I'm clinging too

Looks almost like a possible double whammy for Jacksonville....Basic hit first time, loop, 2nd hit?

[Skywatch_NC]

Heck..send it up to the parched Carolinas.

Eric

[nequad]

The GFS loops it around as a hurricane...then slowly drifts westard to make landfall in JAX in 9 days!

I'm thinking not...but anything is possible.

[jaxfladude]

I would love this thing to recurve

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but, by day 6, this is making a loop and headed back sw Could be bad and stronger...........

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Don't go and ruin what little hope I'm clinging too

Looks almost like a possible double whammy for Jacksonville....Basic hit first time, loop, 2nd hit?

oh, man that is just not right, I guess missing or getting the edges of all those TS and Hurricanes was going bite us good sooner or later.....