I think when you start seeing more than one model show recurvature; you can start to believe it might happen.
All I know, from a personal standpoint; is that the local mets here in Palm Beach County are predicting sunshine tomorrow.
TD 16 has punished us for about 3 days so it is NE Florida's turn I guess.
I voite for recurvature (Of course my vote means nothing....)
Tropical Storm Ophelia
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7351
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
fci wrote:I think when you start seeing more than one model show recurvature; you can start to believe it might happen.
All I know, from a personal standpoint; is that the local mets here in Palm Beach County are predicting sunshine tomorrow.
TD 16 has punished us for about 3 days so it is NE Florida's turn I guess.
I voite for recurvature (Of course my vote means nothing....)
Could get real interesting for anyone from Florida to Maine
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38088
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005
...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD
OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING
MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI. THE
WARNING FOR THE BAHAMAS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS
MORNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH
OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...185 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND ABOUT 100 MILES... 160 KM... NORTH OF FREEPORT
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.
OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR.
A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS
...AND NEARBY BUOYS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40
MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A
DRIFTING BUOY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 38 MPH...AND NOAA BUOY 41010 WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT STRONG
WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
ARE CURRENTLY DUE MORE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THAN TO TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...27.9 N... 78.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005
...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD
OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING
MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI. THE
WARNING FOR THE BAHAMAS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS
MORNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH
OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...185 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND ABOUT 100 MILES... 160 KM... NORTH OF FREEPORT
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.
OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR.
A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS
...AND NEARBY BUOYS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40
MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A
DRIFTING BUOY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 38 MPH...AND NOAA BUOY 41010 WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT STRONG
WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
ARE CURRENTLY DUE MORE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THAN TO TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...27.9 N... 78.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
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#neversummer
Be careful about the term "recurvature"...there's only one model with Ophelia actually recurving out into the Atlantic...the worthless 0Z Canadian.
However, the 0Z GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET ALL show an anticyclonic loop in roughly the same place (off North FL/GA) with the system still offshore at 144Z....
NGP has been unusually good this year.
0Z ECMWF still has the much-ballyhooed NOLA hit, as does the 0Z GFDL.
GFDL ain't great with weak systems, and frankly, for the EC or GFDL to verify, it basically needs to start heading west....now.
However, the 0Z GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET ALL show an anticyclonic loop in roughly the same place (off North FL/GA) with the system still offshore at 144Z....
NGP has been unusually good this year.
0Z ECMWF still has the much-ballyhooed NOLA hit, as does the 0Z GFDL.
GFDL ain't great with weak systems, and frankly, for the EC or GFDL to verify, it basically needs to start heading west....now.
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JamesFromMaine2
- Category 4
- Posts: 989
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:38 am
- Location: Portland Maine USA
- Contact:
Hurricaneman wrote:fci wrote:I think when you start seeing more than one model show recurvature; you can start to believe it might happen.
All I know, from a personal standpoint; is that the local mets here in Palm Beach County are predicting sunshine tomorrow.
TD 16 has punished us for about 3 days so it is NE Florida's turn I guess.
I voite for recurvature (Of course my vote means nothing....)
Could get real interesting for anyone from Florida to Maine
I don't need a Hurricane or tropical storm here in Maine thank you very much! I am heading down to the Gulf coast to help out and the last thing I need is to be helping out from a storm here in my own state! I would rather see this thing go out to sea!
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Wacahootaman
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 221
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:54 am
- Location: North Florida
It is hard to tell where the center of circulation is but on this IR loop, the convection has jogged off to the NNE.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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Statement as of 09:00Z on September 07, 2005
at 5 am EDT...0900z...a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the
East Coast of Florida from Sebastian Inlet northward to Flagler
Beach.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
At 5 am EDT...the Tropical Storm Warning south of Sebastian Inlet
has been discontinued. Also...the government of the Bahamas has
discontinued all warnings for the Bahamas.
At 5 am EDT...a tropical storm watch is in effect for the northeast
Florida coast from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within the next 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in northern and central Florida....and the
southeastern United States coast should monitor the progress of
this system.
Tropical storm center located near 28.3n 78.9w at 07/0900z
position accurate within 15 nm
present movement toward the north-northwest or 335 degrees at 7 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 1003 mb
Max sustained winds 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
34 kt....... 60ne 0se 0sw 50nw.
12 ft seas..160ne 0se 0sw 160nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 28.3n 78.9w at 07/0900z
at 07/0600z center was located near 27.9n 78.8w
forecast valid 07/1800z 28.5n 79.4w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 30se 0sw 60nw.
Forecast valid 08/0600z 28.8n 79.8w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 45se 20sw 60nw.
Forecast valid 08/1800z 29.0n 80.1w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 20ne 0se 0sw 20nw.
34 kt... 70ne 60se 30sw 60nw.
Forecast valid 09/0600z 29.4n 80.3w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 0sw 25nw.
34 kt... 70ne 60se 30sw 60nw.
Forecast valid 10/0600z 29.8n 80.3w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 0sw 25nw.
34 kt... 70ne 60se 30sw 60nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 11/0600z 30.1n 80.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
Outlook valid 12/0600z 30.0n 79.5w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
at 5 am EDT...0900z...a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the
East Coast of Florida from Sebastian Inlet northward to Flagler
Beach.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
At 5 am EDT...the Tropical Storm Warning south of Sebastian Inlet
has been discontinued. Also...the government of the Bahamas has
discontinued all warnings for the Bahamas.
At 5 am EDT...a tropical storm watch is in effect for the northeast
Florida coast from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within the next 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in northern and central Florida....and the
southeastern United States coast should monitor the progress of
this system.
Tropical storm center located near 28.3n 78.9w at 07/0900z
position accurate within 15 nm
present movement toward the north-northwest or 335 degrees at 7 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 1003 mb
Max sustained winds 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
34 kt....... 60ne 0se 0sw 50nw.
12 ft seas..160ne 0se 0sw 160nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 28.3n 78.9w at 07/0900z
at 07/0600z center was located near 27.9n 78.8w
forecast valid 07/1800z 28.5n 79.4w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 30se 0sw 60nw.
Forecast valid 08/0600z 28.8n 79.8w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 45se 20sw 60nw.
Forecast valid 08/1800z 29.0n 80.1w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 20ne 0se 0sw 20nw.
34 kt... 70ne 60se 30sw 60nw.
Forecast valid 09/0600z 29.4n 80.3w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 0sw 25nw.
34 kt... 70ne 60se 30sw 60nw.
Forecast valid 10/0600z 29.8n 80.3w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 0sw 25nw.
34 kt... 70ne 60se 30sw 60nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 11/0600z 30.1n 80.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
Outlook valid 12/0600z 30.0n 79.5w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
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-
DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
- Posts: 4423
- Age: 43
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
- Location: Stuart, FL
-
Matt-hurricanewatcher
000
WTNT31 KNHC 071144
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005
...OPHELIA A LITTLE STRONGER...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST OR ABOUT
80 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES MAINLY TO
THENORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...28.5 N... 79.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT31 KNHC 071144
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005
...OPHELIA A LITTLE STRONGER...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST OR ABOUT
80 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES MAINLY TO
THENORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...28.5 N... 79.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
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MortisFL wrote:DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Looks this morning like she has parked herself due east of the Cape...Looks like alot of nervous loops ahead...
Agreed...flaring up more n more. Waiting on visibles to get a clear look at where the center is moving.
You can clearly see the center on radar out of Melbourne. It's looks like it's on the southern edge of the convection you see on the infrared.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/D ... kmlb.shtml
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-
BensonTCwatcher
- Category 5
- Posts: 1046
- Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:11 pm
- Location: Southport NC
Hmmm, well as I said yesterday, I don't buy that "across FL solution" and I think I'm going to be right about that. Similiarly, it seems somewhat unlikely for a loop and then landfall as shown on the GFS. The loop seems plausible given the ridge over the SE, but not that many systems actually pull it off, so I think I would lean toward the climo history on that. Staying with that thought, climo would also make a landfall likely ( see donsutherlands thoughts in the analysis forum).
Bottom line guess at this stage:
The ridging is probably a little over or underdone by the GFS at this point. It has happen quite a few times. This may allow a trapping in the 12-36 hour period and then a NW movement. No gloom and doom here. That MAY put the system inland from GA to the outer banks.
Storms that get down in that neck of the Atlantic and lack steering initially, have been known to spin up as high as CAT 2 and then recurve. The bad thing is that NC "sticks out so far" that coastal areas can catch all or part of it.
Bottom line guess at this stage:
The ridging is probably a little over or underdone by the GFS at this point. It has happen quite a few times. This may allow a trapping in the 12-36 hour period and then a NW movement. No gloom and doom here. That MAY put the system inland from GA to the outer banks.
Storms that get down in that neck of the Atlantic and lack steering initially, have been known to spin up as high as CAT 2 and then recurve. The bad thing is that NC "sticks out so far" that coastal areas can catch all or part of it.
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