Tropical Storm Ophelia

[SouthFloridawx]

going through intesification now....!!!!!!!!!!1

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... owlabels=0


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmlb.shtml

[truballer#1]

wow it really poped up!

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
2100Z WED SEP 07 2005

AT 5 PM EDT 2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER
BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 79.4W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 0SE 0SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 79.4W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 79.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 29.1N 79.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.0N 80.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 30.3N 80.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 79.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...OPHELIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY...EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

AT 5 PM EDT 2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER
BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR ABOUT
80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...28.9 N... 79.4 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...996 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

056
WTNT41 KNHC 072030
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

THERE HAS BEEN NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO REPORT. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME
PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER... THERE IS
PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 996 MB BUT WINDS REMAIN AT 45
KNOTS.

OPHELIA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO PREVAIL. IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRACTICALLY
KEEPS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MEANDERING WITHIN AN AREA OF ABOUT 100
NAUTICAL MILES FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM
WATER IN THIS AREA...BUT THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THEN
DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. DUE TO THIS VARIABILITY...ONLY
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST...AS SUGGESTED
BY THE SHIPS MODEL.

MODELS CONTINUE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK. THE
GFS WHICH LOOPED THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE WEST IN THE PREVIOUS
RUN...IS NOW SHOWING A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NOGAPS WHICH
EARLIER TURN OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM FLORIDA IS BRINGING
THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE U.S. COAST. THE GFDL STUBBORNLY INSISTS ON
A TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD FLORIDA...AND THE STORY GOES
ON AND ON. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE THE LUXURY OF
MAKING SUCH LARGE CHANGES IN TRACK EVERY SIX HOUR...THE BEST OPTION
FOR WEAK STEERING CURRENT SCENARIOS IS TO MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE
NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION OF THE
CONSENSUS.

ALL INTERESTS IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 28.9N 79.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 29.1N 79.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 29.5N 80.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 30.0N 80.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 30.3N 80.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 12/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W 70 KT

[truballer#1]

[BensonTCwatcher]

Most models still have it doing the loop

You have throw out the BAM models, LBAR, 98E, etc. This system is above 20N. The GFDL is GFS based so it has some inkling as to the synoptics.

Forecast wise, my money stays on the NHC. They just don't have a track solution with high confidence yet until a pattern sets up other than drift.....

It will soon enough.

My guess stays with a N or NE movement overall between GA and the outer banks IF it makes landfall. A grazing or partial crossing of the center on the EC of FL is still possible too. That is not a forecast just a guess. ( see prevoius guess posts)

[deltadog03]

ok.....the western "eye" wall is exploding right now

[Brent]

MODELS CONTINUE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK. THE
GFS WHICH LOOPED THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE WEST IN THE PREVIOUS
RUN...IS NOW SHOWING A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NOGAPS WHICH
EARLIER TURN OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM FLORIDA IS BRINGING
THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE U.S. COAST. THE GFDL STUBBORNLY INSISTS ON
A TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD FLORIDA...AND THE STORY GOES
ON AND ON. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE THE LUXURY OF
MAKING SUCH LARGE CHANGES IN TRACK EVERY SIX HOUR...THE BEST OPTION
FOR WEAK STEERING CURRENT SCENARIOS IS TO MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE
NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION OF THE
CONSENSUS.

Lovely.

[seflcane]

I dont like Lixon Avila's discos. Every storm he does he does not go into detail and underforecast storms.

[txwatcher91]

Is it me or does Ophelia seem to be expanding slowly?

EDIT 1 Look at this, she is beginning to form a eastern "eye" wall

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... owlabels=1

[Marilyn]

The 3 day cone and the 5 day cone at NHC show the storm at the same lat and lot sat the same as mon how can this be?

[HURAKAN]

The 3 day cone and the 5 day cone at NHC show the storm at the same lat and lot sat the same as mon how can this be?

Since no one knows for sure to where Ophelia will move, NHC tactic is to stall the cyclone until its forward movement becomes clear.

[SouthFloridawx]

explosion near the center

[cjrciadt]

She is tired of being taunted by Nate, 130miles ENE from me!!!

[jasons2k]

The storm has now consolidated its layers and I expect the deep layer means to take over and eventually move it west.

Here is a good reference article explaining the steering flows at various levels:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... eprint.pdf

Still no changes to my thinking

[SouthFloridawx]

nice convective blow up. Will it end up covering the center.....?

[SouthFloridawx]

starting to cover the center... interesting developments....

[Brent]

The 3 day cone and the 5 day cone at NHC show the storm at the same lat and lot sat the same as mon how can this be?

It's called a stall.

72HR VT 10/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 12/1800Z 30.5N 79.5W 70 KT

[SouthFloridawx]

other models starting to point more east too....