Hou/Galv -- the aftermath of a Cat 5 like Katrina here

[GalvestonDuck]

From the Galveston Daily News:

By Heber Taylor
The Daily News


Published September 4, 2005

If Katrina had hit Galveston, here's what would have happened:

About 10 hours before the eye of the storm crossed the Seawall, high winds would have ripped into those who had thought about leaving but had procrastinated.

The same winds that made it impossible for them to move would have pinned down emergency workers, making them unable to answer calls for help.

As the storm drew nearer, the winds would have gotten higher. The water would have begun to rise.

The West End of Galveston Island, the Bolivar Peninsula and low-lying areas along the bay would have disappeared.

Then a 20-foot wall of water would have rolled over the island and peninsula.

On the West End and the peninsula, the surge would have topped 20 feet. Houses would have vanished.

The surge would have easily topped the Seawall. Damage would have been catastrophic.

On to the Mainland

The surge would have rolled over the island - and then rolled over Texas City, La Marque, Hitchcock, Santa Fe, Dickinson, League City and Friendswood.

Picture the surge stopping near Baybrook Mall. That, for a while, is the new shoreline. Looking south, you just see the Gulf.

Along the bay in Texas City, San Leon and Bacliff, the storm surge would have scoured huge sections of the shoreline away. Some areas would have simply disappeared.

In Friendswood, Dickinson and League City, the surge from the bay would have run up the bayous and creeks. Meanwhile, the storm bands that caused horrific flooding along Clear Creek in much smaller storms would dump heavy rainfall into the watershed.

Communities in the North County would see flooding by both salt and fresh water.

Looking over Galveston County at the peak of the surge, you would have seen a few islands. But mostly you would have seen the waters of the Gulf.

And when the surge receded, you would have seen crushed houses, large boats on dry land and bodies.

You would have seen the same horrific pictures you are now seeing from Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

A bad tradition

Many people in Galveston County think that picture is false.

They talk about ancestors who stayed through historic storms. They ridicule people who talk about leaving.

They talk, as their ancestors did, about the unpredictability of storms.

But science has changed dramatically in a lifetime. The science of predicting these storms has improved dramatically in the past 10 years.

Seventy-two hours before Katrina hit, forecasters had pinpointed where it would land within 30 miles. That's less than the length of the island.

They predicted the level of the storm surge to within inches.

All along the line, what forecasters predicted was eerily accurate.

People who think they would be safe behind the Seawall - or anywhere else in Galveston County - during a Category 5 storm are irrational, dangerously so.

What to do

If a storm like Katrina heads this way, it's vital for everyone who lives in this county to get out.

What's here is going to be wrecked or damaged. If you stay here, you are going to slow the recovery.

Instead of helping to get electricity and water service restored, emergency workers are going to spend resources answering your call for help.

Some people, inevitably, will stay. They tell us they have a generator and 5-gallon drums of water. They say they're prepared.

But how much water will they and their families need if there's no running water for a month? And how much gasoline will they have to store to keep that generator running if power is out for six weeks?

And what if all those jugs of water and gasoline simply float off when that storm surge runs through the house? What will happen when they are sitting in the heat, surrounded by wreckage, and cholera breaks out because repairs to the sanitation system are still weeks away?

If a storm like Katrina is headed this way, there is one sensible thing to do: leave.

A better plan

Here's the good news: Galveston County's plan for a Category 5 storm is better than the one that was in place for New Orleans.

But if the plan is going to work, the folks who live here must cooperate.

What would happen if a Category 5 storm were headed this way? What should you do?

First, learn what the plan is. Today's edition includes a timeline of what should happen when the day comes that a Category 5 storm is headed this way. Learn what the rules are now.

Second, remember that emergency planners in Louisiana had a plan, too. It called for the evacuation of New Orleans. But as Katrina approached, people watched pictures on television of the killer storm moving closer and closer. You have got to move.

Saying when

Deciding when is your call. But we have a suggestion. At 72 hours before the storm arrives, emergency officials will have to make some calls.

Things will become clearer. Four- and five-day forecasts have large margins of error. At 72 hours, the picture tends to come into focus.

That's when you should tune in.

But even before then, you must have a plan.

Review it. If you're planning to cover the windows with plywood, 72 hours out is the time to start nailing. If you're thinking about going to the lumberyard at that point, you're already behind the curve.

At 72 hours, pack the car. Go off the checklist of valuables you want to take. Be ready.

If emergency management officials in Galveston County are going to call for mandatory evacuations, they must notify the Texas Department of Public Safety 12 hours in advance.

That's so the state can call in officers to man the checkpoints on the highways.

This is the time for you to leave.

You will have 12 hours to choose your route. When the evacuation orders are issued, officers will close intersections. Decisions will be made for you.

If you leave before the evacuation order is given, you'll beat the worst crowds. When you stop for gas, you'll likely find some. When you stop at a hotel, you'll likely find a room.

The longer you wait, the more crowded the roads will get. The more small problems will become big ones. Strong winds and high water will be getting closer.

If reading this depresses you, consider this:

You can't keep a Category 5 storm from destroying what you own. But you can, in the next hour, take steps to make sure that you and your family get out safely.

Learn from Katrina. Make a new plan today.

[Cookiely]

There was a woman rescued yesterday or today and she said "I didn't know the water was going to get so high". The media is not getting the picture or message across.

[AdvAutoBob]

For those who don't know ( I know you do Duck), today is the 105th anniversary of "The Storm" as it's known in Galveston, which hit the island on Saturday September 8th, 1900.
Sadly, I think Katrina is going to eclipse it in terms of loss of life and property damage, and I didn't really think that was possible in our age of near instant information (the loss of life).

I'm reminded of the old saying which definitely applies here:

"Those who fail to learn history's important lessons are doomed to repeat them"

[Roxy]

Wow, that's incredible. It sounds like the water would stop just before our house in Clear Lake. We've always wanted waterfront property, but not this way.

[f5]

Remember the Galveston hurricane of 1900 was the storm of the century but other storms has 99 yrs before the year 2000 to snatch the title but didn't