My perspective on what lies ahead for Nate and Ophelia

[Jim Hughes]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For official information please refer to the NHC and NWS products


I was going to post something a few hours ago talking about how both these systems were probably going to keep on intensifying. The time frame I was looking at was centered around an LDE M1.4 X-ray event /solar limb eruption.

These events occurred around 6/21z.....+ 36 hour lag time effect equals 8/04z. So I most likely expected to see an intensification in the 8/3z-9z udates later on this evening and into early tomorrow.

The origin of the above event was just over the edge of the eastern limb and out of view. The SEC lists the event here at 2202z.

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/ ... events.txt

A LASCO c3 still image can be seen here

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/rea ... 142_c3.gif

The mpg for the 6th...you may have to pause it to get good image

http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/daily_mpg/050906_c3.mpg


What has changed from my original thoughts? Nothing really but I am going to extend this time frame and tell you why.

We just had the strongest x-ray flare in almost two years at 1742z. The particulars on the X17 have not been updated as of yet.

There has been some particle increases on the rise but nothing major as of yet...but we are not out of the woods. This activty, along with what looks like more to follow, worries me very much. Especially with the current low solar wind speed.

The only saving grace may be that I have noticed that tropical systems seem to stay away from reaching major status when proton event level status occur in the > 100 MeV range. But these are rather rare and it is hard to say if one is going to occur right now. The next few hours should tell us allot. I tend to think we have escaped it because of it's semi backside origin but lets wait and see.

In any case here are my thoughts. I firmly believe that Nate and Ophelia are going to be effected by this majpr space weather increase and we are going to see intensification from here on out. Every strong eruptional event/particle etc...will only prolong the strengthening phase and any new ones will keep the intensity level close to where it already is if another strengthening phase (36 hour delay) is forecasted to occur.

We could see Nate intensify rather rapidly since he is out in the open waters and he may even reach major status before certain atmospheric conditions weaken him.

Ophelia is a different story. She should deifintiely strengthen also but this relationship will be nulified of course if she goes over land . I feel very confident that she is going to strengthen if she stays out over the water. I sincerely hope that she does make landfall rather quickly and I hope she does not go across Florida and into the Gulf Of Mexico.

I will not go into everything but her location lines up perfectly with upcoming solar wind magnetic field components and the Stanford Mean magnetic field readings. This will cause her flaring/eruptions to stay conducive even after she changes quadrants and rotates into the SW quadrant in about 8 days. The Stanford Mean will be positive by then and the solar wind directional component will be negative.

The only saving grace may be an upcoming increase in the solar wind speed next week. Some of you may remember a forecast that I made right after Katrina made landfall. I forecasted tropical development for 9/18-20.

I was basing this on the cyclical nature of the solar IMF. I know we will see increased solar winds before the above mentioned formation time frame. You have to remember that my formation forecast is based on the solar winds going well above the 500 km/sec (Most likely 600) and then weakening.

Tropical systems seem to form after the solar wind speed falls below the 500 km/sec threshold. (I also know that the favorable magnetic field parameters will be present. )

Saying that the increased winds will hurt Ophelia if she is in the GOM does not go against my theory at all. It may be confusing but I am not playing with numbers here.

Increased solar winds..above 500 km/sec ... seem to disorganize tropical systems except for fish storms....So Ophelia could possibly weaken and then a new TD could form a few days later after the solar wind subsides.

BTW if this heightened flaring activity level continues we will be seeing a strong ENSO phase develop in approximately 199 days from the center of the increased activity. (Late February early March 2006)

_ALL_ El Nino/La Nina's are preceded by increased solar flaring, compared to the approximate six month moving average... approximately 199 days earlier. Anther post down the road on this.....



Jim

[SouthFloridawx]

Interesting.

[kevin]

[jamima]

Confusing!!

[Jim Hughes]

Confusing!!

In what regards? I have spelled out that I believe Nate and Ophelia will strengthen. The only near term hold back would be a strong proton event at the >100 MeV level.

We will most likely know whether this is going to occur by sunset or at the very least have a better clue.

The only other factor is probably days away....An increase in the solar wind speed above the 500 km/sec level....although there is a slight chance that we could get a glancing blow from a CME (coronal mass ejection) that accompanied the above mentioned solar flare.

This could also cause an increase in solar wind speed. Trust me the northern lights would have been seen in allot of places if this event had occured closer to the sun's center.


So here's the bottom line. Both systems should strengthen and I would give it a 80% chance during the next 24-48 hours. Is that better for you?


Jim

[melhow]

Confusing!!

In what regards? I have spelled out that I believe Nate and Ophelia will strengthen. The only near term hold back would be a strong proton event at the >100 MeV level.

We will most likely know whether this is going to occur by sunset or at the very least have a better clue.

The only other factor is probably days away....An increase in the solar wind speed above the 500 km/sec level....although there is a slight chance that we could get a glancing blow from a CME (coronal mass ejection) that accompanied the above mentioned solar flare.

This could also cause an increase in solar wind speed. Trust me the northern lights would have been seen in allot of places if this event had occured closer to the sun's center.


So here's the bottom line. Both systems should strengthen and I would give it a 80% chance during the next 24-48 hours. Is that better for you?


Jim

It's cool, Jim. I think it's just the "space-speak" that posters are unaccustomed to processing (myself included). For instance, a "strong proton event at the >100 MeV level" is not something that I think most of us would go, oh yeah, of course , a strong proton event at the >100 MeV level! Now I get it...

[TPACane04]

After reading this, I have officially declared it "happy hour" and will drink myself into a solar stupor.

[Kludge]

I've just decided that if I ever form a rock band, I'm going to name them the "Strong Proton Events".

[SouthFloridawx]

Confusing!!

In what regards? I have spelled out that I believe Nate and Ophelia will strengthen. The only near term hold back would be a strong proton event at the >100 MeV level.

We will most likely know whether this is going to occur by sunset or at the very least have a better clue.

The only other factor is probably days away....An increase in the solar wind speed above the 500 km/sec level....although there is a slight chance that we could get a glancing blow from a CME (coronal mass ejection) that accompanied the above mentioned solar flare.

This could also cause an increase in solar wind speed. Trust me the northern lights would have been seen in allot of places if this event had occured closer to the sun's center.


So here's the bottom line. Both systems should strengthen and I would give it a 80% chance during the next 24-48 hours. Is that better for you?


Jim

It's cool, Jim. I think it's just the "space-speak" that posters are unaccustomed to processing (myself included). For instance, a "strong proton event at the >100 MeV level" is not something that I think most of us would go, oh yeah, of course , a strong proton event at the >100 MeV level! Now I get it...

lol yeah jim what is a strong proton event at the >100MeV level? No seriously what is it.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Excellent Jim you were right on the money yesterday! Your analysis
looks very good.

[kevin]

Just so everyone knows, Jim isn't a scientist.

He doesn't have any published papers.

So everyone should do with him what they do with any other self proclaimed founder of a new branch of science : be skeptical.

[SouthFloridawx]

jim is the intensification supposed to start...... ?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

:idea:

Just so everyone knows, Jim isn't a scientist.

He doesn't have any published papers.

So everyone should do with him what they do with any other self proclaimed founder of a new branch of science : be skeptical.

Jim has been pretty accurate recently. He should be a founder.

I think of it more as a reevaluation and refinement process of a
substantiated theory.

Normally I don't accept things at face value, but Jim's observations and theories seem very good. So I think it a good theory.

[SouthFloridawx]

[Jim Hughes]

:idea:

Just so everyone knows, Jim isn't a scientist.

He doesn't have any published papers.

So everyone should do with him what they do with any other self proclaimed founder of a new branch of science : be skeptical.

It would help if you read even the part of my post even if they disinterst you Kevin. In my post yesterday regarding my perspective about things I replied to FCI and I said specifically that technically I am a layman..so I am not misguiding anyone here.

Pretty hard to be a trained scientist in field that basically does not exist anyway.

As far as space weather trained? I could pass any college level exam about it. I also have talked to some individuals out at the Space Enironment Center in Boulder CO. on many occasions in the past and I know where I stand with what they know. Most have specific training just like most scientists and they do not know all aspects of space weather.



Jim

[WindRunner]

:idea:

Just so everyone knows, Jim isn't a scientist.

He doesn't have any published papers.

So everyone should do with him what they do with any other self proclaimed founder of a new branch of science : be skeptical.

Jim has been pretty accurate recently. He should be a founder.

I think of it more as a reevaluation and refinement process of a
substantiated theory.

Normally I don't accept things at face value, but Jim's observations and theories seem very good. So I think it a good theory.

Yes, I must agree with you on this. Jim is one of the most reliable forecasters on here. I have seen several of his forecasts come true with less than a 6 hour margin of error, especially TD formation. So if Jim says that something might be coming, I listen and check the TWO for where it might be.

[Jim Hughes]

jim is the intensification supposed to start...... ?

The energetic proton levels have been steadily rising...my initial thoughts were related to the approximate 36 hour delayed effect from some events yesterday...which pan out to around 8/4z. This is why I mentioned the 8/3 & 9z NHC updates.

But this flare is already causing ionization in the ionosphere. So I would have already opened the window for development. Plus the 36 hour lag time effect is an estimate that I have come up with over the years when looking over advisories and historical space weather events.

This is hard to do because storm location can play a big role. Far eastern storms can get updated every 6 hours where storms close to the US can get updated every three hours. Plus some are jst estimations and some are recon based reports.

Also example....Formation time frames are skewed around 21z most of the times...related to good satellite data and other things.


BTW a proton event is when these high energetic particles interact with the earth's magnetic field environment. Which there by has an effect upon the ionosphere. It can play havoc with all sorts of communications...GPS systems etc...

Here is a space weather glossary that might help you. I will find a better tutorial for more detailed explanations.


http://www.weathrr.com/board/libraries/ ... ossary.txt


Jim

[kevin]

You all are falling for a trick of chance and statistics, based on a bit of knowledge about where areas are favorable that have nothing to do with space weather.

He's putting out technical vocabulary without quantifiable predictions. And you gobble it up. They are all nonverifiable.

Saying a tropical system will strengthen in the month of September is a bet I'd take to the bank if people thought it was 50/50. There's a reason we don't have 30 tropical depressions and 15 tropical storms.

[SouthFloridawx]

You all are falling for a trick of chance and statistics, based on a bit of knowledge about where areas are favorable that have nothing to do with space weather.

He's putting out technical vocabulary without quantifiable predictions. And you gobble it up. They are all nonverifiable.

Saying a tropical system will strengthen in the month of September is a bet I'd take to the bank if people thought it was 50/50. There's a reason we don't have 30 tropical depressions and 15 tropical storms.

[kevin]

Sorry I'm in the science not quackery business and hold things up to standards of verification instead of 'oh it looks like Jim knows what he's doing, lets use him to help make decisions effecting property and life'

Oh and I notice you came in the great exodus from weather.com, are you a groupie of the cow-fart-hydrate et cetera? I don't mean any offense, but are you part of the movement or an outsider?