My perspective on what lies ahead for Nate and Ophelia

[Brent]

Huh?

[SouthFloridawx]

Sorry I'm in the science not quackery business and hold things up to standards of verification instead of 'oh it looks like Jim knows what he's doing, lets use him to help make decisions effecting property and life'

hmmm

jim said

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For official information please refer to the NHC and NWS products


I was going to post something a few hours ago talking about how both these systems were probably going to keep on intensifying. The time frame I was looking at was centered around an LDE M1.4 X-ray event /solar limb eruption.

These events occurred around 6/21z.....+ 36 hour lag time effect equals 8/04z. So I most likely expected to see an intensification in the 8/3z-9z udates later on this evening and into early tomorrow.

The origin of the above event was just over the edge of the eastern limb and out of view. The SEC lists the event here at 2202z.

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/ ... events.txt

A LASCO c3 still image can be seen here

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/re

He is just offering his opinion and his own findings you can take it or leave it not slam him or judge him. If you don't like what he has to say it is a forum and you don't have to click on it and read what it says. Secondly he used the correct disclaimer at the begining and is not causing anyone to make any decisions about life and property.

so,

[kevin]

No, no, nobody is going to make decisions.... yeah.....

That's why people are saying 'oh my god Jim is one of the best forecasters on the board'.

The purpose of a forum is for discussion, debate, and analysis of matters concerning the purpose of the forum. The purpose of this forum is the scientific analysis and prediction of the weather, along with weather education. Since Jim is proposing a radical and unsubstantiated departure from the norm (in my most unhumble opinion) its my duty to be a gadfly (read, Socrates), and just generally be a pest.

When he can silence his critics, then he'll be one of the best forecasters on the board. Until then, I'll continue the hum bug. Unless people think novel theories should be accepted without the least bit of resistance, because they ''''''sound'''''' well thought out.

[Jim Hughes]

You all are falling for a trick of chance and statistics, based on a bit of knowledge about where areas are favorable that have nothing to do with space weather.

He's putting out technical vocabulary without quantifiable predictions. And you gobble it up. They are all nonverifiable.

Saying a tropical system will strengthen in the month of September is a bet I'd take to the bank if people thought it was 50/50. There's a reason we don't have 30 tropical depressions and 15 tropical storms.

Kevin while your criticism is well intended you are somewhat off base since you obviosuly do not follow space weather nor have you tried to from what I have seen. So your preconceived opinion about me is always showing up in every comment.

We are experiencing one of the busiest tropical season ever and we are have been seeing an EXTREMELY UNCHARATISTICALLY solar flaring/eruptional activity this summer. This type of solar behavior has never been seen at this stage of the solar cycle since the satellite era began.

Now I did not buy into the extreme nature of the upcoming seasonal hurricane outlooks and I have stated this in this very forum. I thought 2005 would be no higher than 2004. It now looks like I will be wrong.

What happened? I underestimated the intensity of upcoming space weather. Mind you I have good company. None of the experts thougt this type of activity was going to occur. Hell they were surprised at the October 2003 events and last January's proton flare.

We are nine years away from the last solar minimum and more than five years removed from solar maximum. I think the last cycle never had anything like this occur after October 1991...HALLOWEEN STORM ... about two years after maximum...need to check better though...

Relax a little Kevin. It's not like I am starting some cult and poisoning everybody's mind. At the very least I am talking about an important field. Space weather......


Jim

[SouthFloridawx]

No, no, nobody is going to make decisions.... yeah.....

That's why people are saying 'oh my god Jim is one of the best forecasters on the board'.

The purpose of a forum is for discussion, debate, and analysis of matters concerning the purpose of the forum. The purpose of this forum is the scientific analysis and prediction of the weather, along with weather education. Since Jim is proposing a radical and unsubstantiated departure from the norm (in my most unhumble opinion) its my duty to be a gadfly (read, Socrates), and just generally be a pest.

When he can silence his critics, then he'll be one of the best forecasters on the board. Until then, I'll continue the hum bug. Unless people think novel theories should be accepted without the least bit of resistance, because they ''''''sound'''''' well thought out.

where is your scientific data?

[kevin]

You have every right to continue posting and developing your theory. What I'm against is people saying that you have a degree of accuracy greater than traditional methods. Not only has your hypotheses not been presented to the scientific community, but if valid they have not been compared to the, for lack of a better phrase, tried and true method of conventional scientific meteorology.

[kevin]

No, no, nobody is going to make decisions.... yeah.....

That's why people are saying 'oh my god Jim is one of the best forecasters on the board'.

The purpose of a forum is for discussion, debate, and analysis of matters concerning the purpose of the forum. The purpose of this forum is the scientific analysis and prediction of the weather, along with weather education. Since Jim is proposing a radical and unsubstantiated departure from the norm (in my most unhumble opinion) its my duty to be a gadfly (read, Socrates), and just generally be a pest.

When he can silence his critics, then he'll be one of the best forecasters on the board. Until then, I'll continue the hum bug. Unless people think novel theories should be accepted without the least bit of resistance, because they ''''''sound'''''' well thought out.

where is your scientific data?

I'm claiming a negative, asserting the need for proof, not demonstrating a proof. If you want to know what I am asserting, it is that the majority of tropical depressions develop into tropical storms, and that the majority of time spans in the peak of the season see the development of tropical systems. Those are my claims, and I think the proof is in the numbers.

We have had 16 tropical depressions and 15 of those became tropical storms.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I was the one with the methane theory. It used chemistry to create a relation.
Organochemistry analysis was with it.

Its my theory, not definite, not accurate by any means. Just my theory.

[kevin]

What about the methane mike character? The one who lives in Southern California and talks about dams and methane hydrates also? Extended expositions on some variation of the gaia hypothesis that is exceedingly strong. You know him?

Because he was posting methane hydrates I think three years ago, maybe more.

[SouthFloridawx]

This post has been like .....

[kevin]

I've been a lot calmer than what Huxley had to face. Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary proof.

If he's genuine, Jim won't be the least bit phased, and in a few years I'll see some article of his in Sci Am or something.

[Jim Hughes]

Yes, I must agree with you on this. Jim is one of the most reliable forecasters on here. I have seen several of his forecasts come true with less than a 6 hour margin of error, especially TD formation. So if Jim says that something might be coming, I listen and check the TWO for where it might be.

Windrunner I thank you for the compliment but please do not give certain people the pleasure of messing this thread up by arguing about your comments. I know you did not intend it this way but it is also disrespectful to the trained experts within this forum who I have great respect for.

This is a field that is new and I hope to one day take it to another level. Exchanging ideas never hurt anyone and I have learned many things in this forum over the past couple of months. Maybe I can return the favor.


Jim

[fuzzyblow]

This post has been like .....

lol... I love it...

[temujin]

These events occurred around 6/21z.....+ 36 hour lag time effect equals 8/04z. So I most likely expected to see an intensification in the 8/3z-9z udates later on this evening and into early tomorrow.

That looks like a specific prediction to me.

[Jim Hughes]

These events occurred around 6/21z.....+ 36 hour lag time effect equals 8/04z. So I most likely expected to see an intensification in the 8/3z-9z udates later on this evening and into early tomorrow.

That looks like a specific prediction to me.

Yes it does. Things are getting interesting folks. Proton levels are steadily on the rise tonight.

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/rt_plots/pro_3d.html


Jim

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

These events occurred around 6/21z.....+ 36 hour lag time effect equals 8/04z. So I most likely expected to see an intensification in the 8/3z-9z udates later on this evening and into early tomorrow.

That looks like a specific prediction to me.

Yes it does. Things are getting interesting folks. Proton levels are steadily on the rise tonight.

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/rt_plots/pro_3d.html


Jim

You have hit it on the spot again! Congrats.
Ophelia is intensifying pressure has dropped a good bit since noon today.

Amazing how stuff works. Solar activity influencing cyclonic development.
This theory is highly substantiable yet again tonight.

[nequad]

I have my doubts on your theory Jim...but am wise enough to keep an open mind.

Keep up the good work. I look forward to seeing how your research turns out.

[SouthFloridawx]

These events occurred around 6/21z.....+ 36 hour lag time effect equals 8/04z. So I most likely expected to see an intensification in the 8/3z-9z udates later on this evening and into early tomorrow.

That looks like a specific prediction to me.

Yes it does. Things are getting interesting folks. Proton levels are steadily on the rise tonight.

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/rt_plots/pro_3d.html


Jim

what is a proton level and how does it affect the intensity of weather?

Make the connection please. Thanks
You have hit it on the spot again! Congrats.
Ophelia is intensifying pressure has dropped a good bit since noon today.

Amazing how stuff works. Solar activity influencing cyclonic development.
This theory is highly substantiable yet again tonight.

[SouthFloridawx]

what is a proton level and how does it affect the intensity of weather

Make the connection please. Thanks

[Big-Iguana]

Space weather and atmospheric weather concatenations is also an interest of mine.

Here's some data to get you all started in the relatively new phase of meteorology.

SPACE WEATHER--A NEW CHALLENGE FOR METEOROLOGISTS
A good background primer on the sun and its effects

"Within 1 to 4 days after a flare or eruptive prominence, a cloud of matter and magnetic field can reach the Earth, buffeting the magnetosphere and causing a geomagnetic storm. These storms, which last for several days, are characterized by a worldwide disturbance in the Earth's magnetic field, causing it to vary rapidly in direction and intensity. Through processes which are not well understood, storms disrupt the equatorial regions of the ionosphere, causing intensification of normally occurring spatial irregularities in electron density (scintillations). Geomagnetic storms and increased ultraviolet emission from flares can also heat the Earth's upper atmosphere, causing it to expand upward."
http://www.ofcm.gov/fp-fy97/text/sec4.htm

SOLAR ACTIVITY: A DOMINANT FACTOR IN CLIMATE DYNAMICS
The most convincing argument yet, supporting a strong impact of the sun’s activity on climate change, is a direct connection between cloud coverage and cosmic rays, discovered by H. Svensmark and E. Friis-Christensen [111] in 1996. It is shown in Figure 6. Clouds have a hundred times stronger effect on weather and climate than carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Even if the atmosphere’s CO2 content doubled, its effect would be cancelled out if the cloud cover expanded by 1%, as shown by H. E. Landsberg [53]. Svensmark’s and Friis-Christensen’s result is therefore of great importance.
http://www.john-daly.com/solar/solar.htm

Long-Range Forecast of U.S. Drought Based on Solar Activity
So, there is hope of a more detailed cause and effect explanation as soon as the still rudimentary theories of solar activity and climate change reach a more mature stage of development. Anyway, the correct forecast of the U.S. drought beginning in 1999 and a dozen of further successful climate forecasts, exclusively based on solar activity, show already now that the IPCC’s claim that there has only been a negligible solar effect on climate change in recent decades is not tenable. Ironically, just drought, the greatest threat attributed to alleged man-made global warming, has turned out to be regulated by variations in the sun’s eruptional activity.
http://www.john-daly.com/solar/US-drought.htm

Sun Earth Connection - Nasa's Goddard Flight Space Center
http://sec.gsfc.nasa.gov/

SOHO- Solar & Heliospheric Observatory
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/

International Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP)
http://pwg.gsfc.nasa.gov/istp/

Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory
http://www.lmsal.com/
http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

Transition Region and Coronal Explorer
http://vestige.lmsal.com/TRACE/

SolarMonitor at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
http://www.solarmonitor.org/index.php

N3KL-solar monitor
http://www.n3kl.org/

Real-time Magnetosphere Simulation
http://www2.nict.go.jp/dk/c232/realtime/

Hurricane Katrina:

Became a Tropical Depression on 08/23/05 at2100Z
Solar flux measured at 23h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 106.9 (the reading at 20h UTC was too high because of an M class long duration event). The planetary A index was 9 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.0). At least a partial halo CME was observed after the M2 LDE in region S583 during the afternoon.

Proton storm from a CME started on the 22nd:
Flares: M2.6/1N long duration proton event peaking at 01:50 (associated with strong type II and IV radio sweeps and a full halo CME) and a major long duration M5.6/1N proton event peaking at 17:27 UTC. The latter event was associated with a strong type IV radio sweep and a large CME.
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/satenv ... satenv.gif

Strong westward turn (nearly 90 degrees) on 08/24/05 which commenced with a geomagnetic storm event. Katrina was upgraded to hurricane status on the 25th.
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/satenv ... satenv.gif
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/storm/old_files ... 5-2005.png

Hurricane Katrina goes to catagory 5 as a minor geomagnetic storm starts and proton flux increases slightly:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/satenv ... satenv.gif

Western half of Katrina blows out and looks like dry air intrusion. A large full halo CME was observed from a source behind the southwest limb. A minor increase in the above 10 MeV proton flux was probably caused by this event as well.
sat image: http://tinyurl.com/coc46
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/satenv ... satenv.gif

Notice the spike on this indice about the time Katrina became a tropical storm:
http://www.nwra-az.com/spawx/27do.html

Odd readings too, went off the charts:
2005 08 23| 2200| 53605| 79200| 9| -9999.9| -9999.9| -1.00e+05
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ace2/2 ... pam_1h.txt
_____________________________

Incoming proton storm:
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/EPAM_24h.html

As per this incoming proton storm effecting a tropical system intensity, I haven't been correlating the data enough to comment. Although high levels of charged particles do increase electrical storm activity and intensity.

It will be a watch and see learning experience, that's how it all starts.
Remember all Earth weather starts at the Sun!

Good luck on formulating some new theories, Jim !