Tropical Storm Ophelia

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

velocity loop!
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mlb_N0V_lp.shtml

[SouthFloridawx]

WSW movement yeah I notice that

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

WSW Movement I agree

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OPHELIA REMAINS SOMEWHAT SHEARED
THIS EVENING...WITH BURSTS OF CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT.
THE LATEST WSR-88D IMAGERY FROM MELBOURNE SHOWS A NEW BURST ABOUT
25-30 N MI WNW OF THE CENTER...AND THAT THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM
APPEARS SOMEWHAT DRY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS
EXTRAPOLATED CENTRAL PRESSURES OF 994 AND 995 MB...WITH MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB OF 54 KT. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE DOPPLER WINDS FROM MELBOURNE...AND BASED ON THESE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY. OPHELIA IS SOUTH OF A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...AND BETWEEN SEGMENTS OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THIS IS PRODUCING A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS...
UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST THE WESTERLIES TO SINK
SOUTHWARD AND STEER OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND GFDN
FORECAST SLOW AND LOOPING MOTION JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA COASTS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD...THE
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A SLOW MOTION...WITH THE NEW
TRACK SIMILAR TO AND JUST A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. SOME SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR CONTINUES...AND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST THAT MODERATE SHEAR
WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INDEED...IF THE STORM
GETS NORTH OF 30N THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE. IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR IMPINGING ON
THE STORM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THE GFDL BRINGS
OPHELIA TO 84 KT...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AT 64
KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL
AND BRING OPHELIA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HR. THIS IS ALSO A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

ALL INTERESTS IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE. SHOULD OPHELIA
STRENGTHEN FASTER AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY SOMETIME ON THURSDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 28.9N 79.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 29.1N 79.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 29.4N 79.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 29.8N 79.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 30.3N 79.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 30.5N 79.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 30.5N 78.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 13/0000Z 30.5N 78.5W 70 KT

[SouthFloridawx]

sometimes a tick south of west and sometimes more southwest. This is what i see anyway....

[Jim Hughes]

This does not add up. I briefly heard Jim Cantore talking to Steve Lyons about the recon report around 10:22pm . They either mentioned that the plane found winds of 50 knots or 54 knots. They even said that we could see an increase in the wind speed in the 11pm update.

How can there be no increase when the recon actually measures one?


Jim

50 and 54 kts do not support stronger than 45 kt at the surface. I saw Cantore say the same thing but I don't know where he got it from...

Thanks Brent . Okay that makes sense. I relied on JC to do the math. I was in the other room listening . I thought he did that when he mentioned the surface winds could be upgraded. Surprised Steve let it slide also. He must be tired.


Jim

[SeaBrz_FL]

Somewhere along the way today Ophelia and I became friends.

I was worried about Ophelia when I went to bed last night, and she woke me up at 4:15 AM with heavy winds and rain. Later this morning, I gassed up the car and restocked food and water and then went about my regular life knowing that Miss O was heading off to the north.

Long story short, Ophelia has given us much appreciated heavy sun-blocking clouds and very wispy light rain all day today. Winds here (750 ft from the coast) have been less than 10 mph all day (unlike last night and yesterday) but we now have a wierd orange color sky and I'm not sure what that means.

Take care all, SB

[MortisFL]

Its moving just about west right now.

If the radar loop is ever mis-leading to your eyes, try the 1-hour storm total loop, you can follow the rainless center easier.

[CronkPSU]

Its moving just about west right now.

If the radar loop is ever mis-leading to your eyes, try the 1-hour storm total loop, you can follow the rainless center easier.

lol, good tip, hadn't heard that one before, really does make it easier...thanks!

[shaggy]

heres what my local NWS said today.I am about 8 hours behind you guys since i am just getting off work!


LONG TERM (SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY)...OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO
MEANDER OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA THRU THIS TIME PERIOD TO KEEP IT
FROM BECOMING A FACTOR. THE WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL
MOVE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN
RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MAKING THE
POTENTIAL TRACK OF OPHELIA LATE NEXT WEEK QUITE INTERESTING.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

heres what my local NWS said today.I am about 8 hours behind you guys since i am just getting off work!


LONG TERM (SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY)...OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO
MEANDER OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA THRU THIS TIME PERIOD TO KEEP IT
FROM BECOMING A FACTOR. THE WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL
MOVE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN
RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MAKING THE
POTENTIAL TRACK OF OPHELIA LATE NEXT WEEK QUITE INTERESTING.

Strong ridge thru Monday
So she goes W/WSW next few days IMO.
This is getting concerning for me...

[shaggy]

NHC has been spot on so in the next 5 days don't expect a lot of WSW movement if any at all.She is going to be a tough one to call but as of right now i think patience is the best way to go with this storm.

[mettski]

heres what my local NWS said today.I am about 8 hours behind you guys since i am just getting off work!


LONG TERM (SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY)...OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO
MEANDER OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA THRU THIS TIME PERIOD TO KEEP IT
FROM BECOMING A FACTOR. THE WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL
MOVE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN
RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MAKING THE
POTENTIAL TRACK OF OPHELIA LATE NEXT WEEK QUITE INTERESTING.

Strong ridge thru Monday
So she goes W/WSW next few days IMO.
This is getting concerning for me...

I thought we had a pact... ahh the voodoo again. ok, yep its going WSW and hitting tampa imho.

[CronkPSU]

all it takes is for the big O is to keep drifting west like this for another few hours and a whole lot of us in florida will be very wet

[gatorcane]

Even if she did go WSW and hit Tampa it would be barely even a T.S. or probably a depression by the time it got there unless she came ashore a major hurricane and moved WSW fairly rapidly (faster than 10 mph)Tampa does not need to worry about this one.

[mettski]

Even if she did go WSW and hit Tampa it would be barely even a T.S. or probably a depression by the time it got there unless she came ashore a major hurricane and moved WSW fairly rapidly (faster than 10 mph)Tampa does not need to worry about this one.

understand. thanks.

[deltadog03]

yeah, i am seeing a WSW movement at the moment

[fci]

Even if she did go WSW and hit Tampa it would be barely even a T.S. or probably a depression by the time it got there unless she came ashore a major hurricane and moved WSW fairly rapidly (faster than 10 mph)Tampa does not need to worry about this one.

Yeah, I'm with you.
When you are on the "other" coast; effects are minimized as opposed to the one where landfall occurs.

Quite honestly, when a storm is menacing Ft Myers/Naples/Sarasota et al.; I am not particularly concerned for our little world in Palm Beach County.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Oh whoops didn't mean to cause any worries...my apologies

yea this thing will be like a normal TStorm if it reaches tampa bay.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Moving wwsw (mostly west) but it did make a wobble south about an
hour ago.