BOC/GOM Convection,Will Philippe form here?

HouTXmetro · #1 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 11:47 pm

The ULL has moved inland into Mexico. Is there any chance the remainding convection will develope? I am really looking at the satelite photos for any hint of a circulation. Nothing impressive as of now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Hyperstorm · #2 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 11:59 pm

I really haven't paid much attention to this area for obvious reasons...nothing there.

However, I'm beginning to note this evening a surge of deeper moisture and convection from land into the Bay of Campeche where upper-level winds are more favorable.

If anything is going to develop out of all this mess, that would be the place...

#3 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 2:23 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 080237
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
MARIA...LOCATED ABOUT 940 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
ON HURRICANE NATE...LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA...CENTERED ABOUT 85 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW.
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME AND DEVELOPMENT...
IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

#4 Postby **tailgater** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 2:34 am

Large flare overnite near weak low, let's see if it persist.

#5 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 2:39 am

tailgater wrote:Large flare overnite near weak low, let's see if it persist.

i noticed that too... hope anyone didn't think i was being mean... first time i tried font size at large... didn't know it was that large... should have figured

:blow:

Foladar · #6 Postby **Foladar** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 3:38 am

I'm nowhere near anything, but what's the big red area near the GOM?

Thunder44 · #7 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 4:30 am

633
ABNT20 KNHC 080928
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

KatDaddy · #8 Postby **KatDaddy** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 5:36 am

A little more of a concern as the flow in the WGOM is more S to N.

Anonymous · #9 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 5:39 am

Yep...and upper level winds are rather favorable...and Western Gulf water temperatures are prime. Philippe?

KatDaddy · #10 Postby **KatDaddy** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 5:43 am

A single AFD mention...............from Corpus Christi:

...WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION WHICH JUST FLARED UP OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS THIS COULD BE A PLAYER IN THE LONG-TERM SO
FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

no advance · #11 Postby **no advance** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 5:45 am

Phillip could be big daddy. What a yr.

KatDaddy · #12 Postby **KatDaddy** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 5:50 am

Remember how fast development occurred in the BOC this year. If it develops as rapidly as the other systems but moves N, look out TX and LA.

Shoshana · #13 Postby **Shoshana** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 6:06 am

Mexico needs to watch out - they've already been hit by Bret, Gert and Jose who all started out in the BOC ... and Emily, who didn't.

gilbert88 · #14 Postby **gilbert88** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:07 am

Does anyone know where this GOM thing is heading? Looks like I'll be worrying about "TD17" or "Phillippe" soon...

Thanks in advance...

#15 Postby **Noah** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:09 am

could this thing, if it developes go due east to florida??? :cry:

#16 Postby **wx247** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:13 am

Noah wrote:could this thing, if it developes go due east to florida???

I don't see that happening right now, but of course, this system hasn't even really developed yet so it is too soon to say where it will head (if anywhere). The better bet on movement would be northward or northwestward if something were to develop. And unfortunately for the peeps in TX, I don't see a cold front dropping south anytime soon to sweep a system (if it were to develop) away.

*By the way, these are just my thoughts and are no way an official forecast, etc, etc, etc.*

gilbert88 · #17 Postby **gilbert88** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:15 am

It's probably coming this way (NE Mexico). We don't need more water!

#18 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:44 am

I've been watching the BOC all week. We may have a new player there. It's a prime birthing area this time of year and the GOM is still very, very warm.

#19 Postby **tailgater** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 8:03 am

gilbert88 wrote:It's probably coming this way (NE Mexico). We don't need more water!

I was wondering where you were from with that user name I should have known. Texas may get thier storm this crazy year, just keep it the H**L away from here or we'll be heading back to Nova Scotia :grrr:

#20 Postby **cjrciadt** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 8:19 am

TWC mentioned it all of two seconds, a quick growing TS like Jose and others could be possible again. :roll:

BOC/GOM Convection,Will Philippe form here?

BOC/GOM Convection,Will Philippe form here?

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