MJO

[WeatherEmperor]

MJO doesnt make hardly a difference. We got almost nothing under wet MJO, and are getting activity under dry MJO.

thats what i was thinking.

<RICKY>

\


I must EAT MY CROW and agree...earlier this season I put an
insane amount of weight on the silly MJO...

dont be too hard on yourself. nobody knew how insane this 2005 hurricane season was going to be.

<RICKY>

[no advance]

Mjo no more according to the 8am. BELOW AVERAGE PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS
RECENTLY HAVE REVERSED INTO BEING SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE..
PERHAPS INDICATIVE THAT THE ACTIVE CONVECTION PHASE OF THE
MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION HAS LEFT THE REGION.

$$

[Jim Hughes]

Mjo no more according to the 8am. BELOW AVERAGE PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS
RECENTLY HAVE REVERSED INTO BEING SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE..
PERHAPS INDICATIVE THAT THE ACTIVE CONVECTION PHASE OF THE
MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION HAS LEFT THE REGION.

$$

Things have changed in the last 24-48 hours. The RMM Index phase is now 4. This is considered unfavorable for a good deal of the tropics.


Jim

[Andrew92]

Mjo no more according to the 8am. BELOW AVERAGE PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS
RECENTLY HAVE REVERSED INTO BEING SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE..
PERHAPS INDICATIVE THAT THE ACTIVE CONVECTION PHASE OF THE
MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION HAS LEFT THE REGION.

$$

It's probably risen to slightly above average because the Atlantic can't take much more activity! If it takes much more, there will be so much pressure that the Atlantic will burst.

Hey, I can hypothesize, can't I?

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

The Atlantic is in the dry phase of the Madden Julian Occillation right now.That is why the tropical atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is closed for tropical developments.

[artist]

well - I wish Ophelia would listen and just go away!

[Jim Hughes]

The Atlantic is in the dry phase of the Madden Julian Occillation right now.That is why the tropical atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is closed for tropical developments.

It's amazing that anything is out there with this environment. The RMM is rather moderate to strong and it has bee in phase 4 for a few days now. Moving towards 5 maybe ???.... IMHO not good for near term development down the road..


http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/


Jim

[cycloneye]

The wet MJO will arrive by mid september and things may be more active by then apart from what we are seeing now.

[Andrew92]

The wet MJO will arrive by mid september and things may be more active by then apart from what we are seeing now.

I fear that day.

If we can have THREE storms at the same time during the dry MJO, who knows what will happen if indeed that wet MJO does arrive like you say Cycloneye!

-Andrew92

[PuertoRicoLibre]

Mjo no more according to the 8am. BELOW AVERAGE PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS
RECENTLY HAVE REVERSED INTO BEING SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE..
PERHAPS INDICATIVE THAT THE ACTIVE CONVECTION PHASE OF THE
MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION HAS LEFT THE REGION.

$$

Things have changed in the last 24-48 hours. The RMM Index phase is now 4. This is considered unfavorable for a good deal of the tropics.


Jim

With all that dust and persistent T.s the Atlantic deep tropics MJO on either phase is meaningless. No tropical development will occur in the deep tropics. Of course for the Gulf and the eastern seaboard it is another story.

[MiamiensisWx]

With all that dust and persistent T.s the Atlantic deep tropics MJO on either phase is meaningless. No tropical development will occur in the deep tropics. Of course for the Gulf and the eastern seaboard it is another story.

True... however, there has been persistent shear in many areas of the Atlantic Basin, especially near and within parts of the western Atlantic, Caribbean and a few areas in the Gulf of Mexico. Overall, the shear refuses to leave, although it often "relaxes" for a while before bursting up again.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

bumping the mjo

[Jim Hughes]

Mjo no more according to the 8am. BELOW AVERAGE PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS
RECENTLY HAVE REVERSED INTO BEING SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE..
PERHAPS INDICATIVE THAT THE ACTIVE CONVECTION PHASE OF THE
MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION HAS LEFT THE REGION.

$$

Things have changed in the last 24-48 hours. The RMM Index phase is now 4. This is considered unfavorable for a good deal of the tropics.


Jim

With all that dust and persistent T.s the Atlantic deep tropics MJO on either phase is meaningless. No tropical development will occur in the deep tropics. Of course for the Gulf and the eastern seaboard it is another story.

I wouldn't say it's meaningless but I also know that itis not the only important factor. The ones you mentioned are important also. A good forecast, whether it be a long or short term , will involve many factors. The more the better in my opinion.

Ophelia has had plenty of obstacles to hinder her development and yet she has persisted...and strengthened...Just goes to show that we need to look at all possible factors. In my opinion....


Jim

[wxmann_91]

Wet MJO is back in EPAC, and look at the results: (and this doesn't even include TD 10E I think)

[johngaltfla]

The wet MJO will arrive by mid september and things may be more active by then apart from what we are seeing now.

I hope you're wrong, but I think you're on the money. Sadly that coincides with the peak of the GOM season and hits on Florida from late September through November.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Neutral MJO across Carribean and Gulf. Dry MJO has exited this
portion of the Atlantic Basin. Wet MJO is arriving.

[johngaltfla]

Neutral MJO across Carribean and Gulf. Dry MJO has exited this
portion of the Atlantic Basin. Wet MJO is arriving.

That unfortunately coincides with our season TampaBay. Guess I'll go clean off the plywood in the storage shed.

Ugh.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Neutral MJO across Carribean and Gulf. Dry MJO has exited this
portion of the Atlantic Basin. Wet MJO is arriving.

That unfortunately coincides with our season TampaBay. Guess I'll go clean off the plywood in the storage shed.

Ugh.

This time of year brings back memories of Gordon 2000 and
Gabrielle 2001, GOM storms that came right up the west coast.

This is the time to watch.

[SouthFloridawx]

where is the MJO at this point.

[wxmann_91]

bump for the MJO, area of wet MJO developing in the eastern Atlantic.