BOC/GOM Convection,Will Philippe form here?

[boca]

TWC mentioned it all of two seconds, a quick growing TS like Jose and others could be possible again.

Didn't they read the sign Gulf of Mexico closed for season.

[Roxy]

Great, just what we need.

It sure looks good though.

[dixiebreeze]

My suspicions are growing about the juicy GOM today. Sure looks ripe.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on September 8, 2005


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria...located about 1115 miles west of the Azores...
on Hurricane Nate...located about 135 miles southeast of Bermuda...
and on Tropical Storm Ophelia...centered about 60 miles
east-northeast of Cape Canaveral Florida.

Disturbed weather over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is associated
with a weak surface low pressure area. There has been little
change in the organization of this system over the past several
hours. However some slow development is possible over the next
couple of days...as long as the system remains over water.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Friday.

Forecaster Pasch

[susan]

Texas is busy now coping with evacuees..we dont need a storm now....Isn't there some high pressure over us that would prevent anything from moving north?

[deltadog03]

well, that high pressure is pushing to the east....so, a north movement is possible

[susan]

Well, isn't that just great. Local guys in the Houston area don't seem very concerned about this...

[jasons2k]

I was afraid of this. The TUTT moved onshore yesterday and opened the gate, so to speak, for the convection from the Yucatan to get over the water. Definitely something to watch.

[Rainband]

Looks interesting. Texas may have to watch this one. Just keep it away from LA and MISS

[susan]

Hello...where do you think everyone went? To Texas...At least NOLA is pretty much evacuated..Can you imagine what problems we would have in the Harris county area if we were forced to evacuate????? We have 1/2 of NOLA here who would also have to evacuate..

[jasons2k]

Hello...where do you think everyone went? To Texas...At least NOLA is pretty much evacuated..Can you imagine what problems we would have in the Harris county area if we were forced to evacuate????? We have 1/2 of NOLA here who would also have to evacuate..

Yeah and the Astrodome, Reliant, GRB are designated evacuation shelters for Houston.

[Rainband]

Hello...where do you think everyone went? To Texas...At least NOLA is pretty much evacuated..Can you imagine what problems we would have in the Harris county area if we were forced to evacuate????? We have 1/2 of NOLA here who would also have to evacuate..

My bad. I wasn't thinking. Haven't had enough coffee yet.

[GalvestonDuck]

No offense to DeltaDog, but does anyone else have any prognostications about what would or would not move this thing north?

[Kludge]

I was afraid of this. The TUTT moved onshore yesterday and opened the gate, so to speak, for the convection from the Yucatan to get over the water. Definitely something to watch.

Yeah, Jason...it looks like the cloud tops have warmed some this morning as it tries to get it's act together, but it certainly seems to have a nice "outflow" look on top. And I'm concerned that it seems to have a pronounced nortward movement to it. It's almost like an Opal scenario, except with it being earlier in the year, it may not have much of an eastward component to its movement.

With everyone focused on Ophelia, I'm afraid this one could sneak throught the back door.

[jasons2k]

I was afraid of this. The TUTT moved onshore yesterday and opened the gate, so to speak, for the convection from the Yucatan to get over the water. Definitely something to watch.

Yeah, Jason...it looks like the cloud tops have warmed some this morning as it tries to get it's act together, but it certainly seems to have a nice "outflow" look on top. And I'm concerned that it seems to have a pronounced nortward movement to it. It's almost like an Opal scenario, except with it being earlier in the year, it may not have much of an eastward component to its movement.

With everyone focused on Ophelia, I'm afraid this one could sneak throught the back door.

Hey there Kludge! Yes, I think this is definitely possible. TUTT's tend to provide a favorable environment for development on the southern periphery with upper-level divergence. This may be a setup for such development.

[susan]

Oh, it goes way past just the Reliant complex and our convention center...Virtually every single church is also a Red Cross Shelter. There are many smaller towns and cities which surround the Houston area and are sheltering people. We are happy to do it because this year it was them next year could be us.

[Swimdude]

*Sigh*

I normally wishcast storms in our directions. Come on, i'm a Houstonian, after all. But... This is one we do NOT need. Out city has 100,000+ more people than normal, and the last thing we need is a storm here... If that occured, all the evacuees would probably run to Canada.

[Johnny]

I think we will be fine here in Southeast, Texas. This thing doesn't even have its act together yet and I don't see any possible way that this could blow up into a major hurricane (not enough time). A strong tropical storm or category 1 storm wouldn't be out of the question though.


Has there ever been a system form in the Bay of Campeche and later become a major hurricane?

[jasons2k]

Oh, it goes way past just the Reliant complex and our convention center...Virtually every single church is also a Red Cross Shelter. There are many smaller towns and cities which surround the Houston area and are sheltering people. We are happy to do it because this year it was them next year could be us.

Yes, and the sad reality is that THIS year it could be us too.

[susan]

Tropical storm or Cat 1 would be bad enough. Allison kicked our butts.